Michigan State vs. Miami College Football Week 3 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Michigan State Spartans vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at noon ET (ABC) at Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables, Florida
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds remain very much a reflection of preseason expectations.
This fact helps explain why, after two weeks of play, the odds look so off for this game. After two games, it's apparent that Michigan State has not lived down to its low expectations. Likewise, Miami is failing yet again to live up to its expectations.
After coasting to a 7-7 second half, Michigan State did not cover the spread last week against lowly Youngstown State. The Spartans just cared about winning and they were up 35-7 at half.
They did, however, easily cover the season opener as they blew out favored Northwestern.
Meanwhile, Miami is 0-2 ATS after losing 48-14 to Alabama. Even failing to cover the spread against Alabama is never necessarily cause for alarm. But scraping by App State -- the Hurricanes, favored by 7.5, won on a last-minute field goal -- does inspire worry.
Michigan State's Offense
Heading into this season, expectations were low for the Spartan offense, which, in recent years, had cultivated a reputation for being slow, boring, grinding, and uneventful.
A quarterback controversy between two seemingly not very salivating candidates did not inspire any optimism.
But before the Spartans blasted Youngstown State with 35 first-half points in a game that one can't glean too much from, they amassed 38 points against Big Ten foe Northwestern, whose defense looked meaningfully more competent in Week 2 as it's always hard to ask a team to allow six points or fewer in a game even if the opponent is Indiana State. Alabama, for comparison's sake, allowed Mercer to score 14 points.
Run Game and Offensive Line Play
Tremendous areas of improvement for Michigan State are the related plays of the running backs and offensive line.
After ranking 121st in rush yards per game last year, the Spartans currently rank fourth in the category.
This is the massive sort of improvement that oddsmakers take a long time to account for because the odds adjust slowly to new realities.
While flourishing against Youngstown State is not impressive, Northwestern's defensive line had high hopes and that team's defense in general is always supposed to reload and be very good.
Something new for Michigan State is the level of depth on what, in recent years, had been a relatively small and injury-prone unit.
Currently, Michigan State is able to rotate quality blockers in so that they remain fresh.
The Spartans also show high quality in their group of running backs with Jordan Simmons averaging 6.2 YPG and Kenneth Walker 10.7.
They draw attention from opposing defenses to themselves, which gives quarterback Payton Thorne less defensively to deal with and less pressure to drive the team downfield. He hasn't had to do too much and this lack of onus has helped him throw five touchdowns to zero interceptions so far.
Miami's Run Defense
Quite fittingly for Michigan State, which, as I've explained, values its run game for multiple reasons, run defense was rightly perceived as a significant problem for Miami heading into this season.
Last year, the Hurricanes allowed 174 rush yards per game, which is the highest total under Manny Diaz.
Even viewed apart from the isolated catastrophes in which they allowed the opponent to amass literally hundreds of rushing yards, one could not call the Hurricane run defense competent.
Coaching changes, which may have a good effect long-term, often cause a short-term setback because of the adjustments that they require from players. During the offseason, Miami changed its defensive coaching staff in several respects that, including the play-calling, have yet to help.
Personnel-wise, there are issues. During the offseason, Miami lost two starters at defensive end who had done a great job of causing havoc in the backfield.
Moreover, Miami's returning linebackers do not seem to be of the same quality as the group that had annually sustained excellence before leaving for the NFL. In this case, experience is a bad thing because it means struggling players returning without other guys being good enough to take their spot on the depth chart and make a difference.
Miami's Offensive Problems
In order to bet on the favorite, one obviously must want that favorite to be strong enough offensively in order to win by enough points to cover the spread.
But the Hurricanes show a slew of problems on offense right now.
The tempo is slow, which points to a deeper lack of identity because Miami's tempo is supposed to be quick.
PFF grades also point to a low quality of run-blocking, yards after the catch, and wide receiver separation. One disappointing receiver is Mike Harley, who seems to be making a habit of slow season starts.
A Spartan defense with a lot of returning experience especially at defensive line and in the secondary will have an easier test on Saturday.
Best Bet: Spartans +6.5 at -113 with BetOnline
Michigan State Spartans vs. Miami Hurricanes
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at noon ET (ABC) at Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables, Florida
The Odds
Early in the season, the odds remain very much a reflection of preseason expectations.
This fact helps explain why, after two weeks of play, the odds look so off for this game. After two games, it's apparent that Michigan State has not lived down to its low expectations. Likewise, Miami is failing yet again to live up to its expectations.
After coasting to a 7-7 second half, Michigan State did not cover the spread last week against lowly Youngstown State. The Spartans just cared about winning and they were up 35-7 at half.
They did, however, easily cover the season opener as they blew out favored Northwestern.
Meanwhile, Miami is 0-2 ATS after losing 48-14 to Alabama. Even failing to cover the spread against Alabama is never necessarily cause for alarm. But scraping by App State -- the Hurricanes, favored by 7.5, won on a last-minute field goal -- does inspire worry.
Michigan State's Offense
Heading into this season, expectations were low for the Spartan offense, which, in recent years, had cultivated a reputation for being slow, boring, grinding, and uneventful.
A quarterback controversy between two seemingly not very salivating candidates did not inspire any optimism.
But before the Spartans blasted Youngstown State with 35 first-half points in a game that one can't glean too much from, they amassed 38 points against Big Ten foe Northwestern, whose defense looked meaningfully more competent in Week 2 as it's always hard to ask a team to allow six points or fewer in a game even if the opponent is Indiana State. Alabama, for comparison's sake, allowed Mercer to score 14 points.
Run Game and Offensive Line Play
Tremendous areas of improvement for Michigan State are the related plays of the running backs and offensive line.
After ranking 121st in rush yards per game last year, the Spartans currently rank fourth in the category.
This is the massive sort of improvement that oddsmakers take a long time to account for because the odds adjust slowly to new realities.
While flourishing against Youngstown State is not impressive, Northwestern's defensive line had high hopes and that team's defense in general is always supposed to reload and be very good.
Something new for Michigan State is the level of depth on what, in recent years, had been a relatively small and injury-prone unit.
Currently, Michigan State is able to rotate quality blockers in so that they remain fresh.
The Spartans also show high quality in their group of running backs with Jordan Simmons averaging 6.2 YPG and Kenneth Walker 10.7.
They draw attention from opposing defenses to themselves, which gives quarterback Payton Thorne less defensively to deal with and less pressure to drive the team downfield. He hasn't had to do too much and this lack of onus has helped him throw five touchdowns to zero interceptions so far.
Miami's Run Defense
Quite fittingly for Michigan State, which, as I've explained, values its run game for multiple reasons, run defense was rightly perceived as a significant problem for Miami heading into this season.
Last year, the Hurricanes allowed 174 rush yards per game, which is the highest total under Manny Diaz.
Even viewed apart from the isolated catastrophes in which they allowed the opponent to amass literally hundreds of rushing yards, one could not call the Hurricane run defense competent.
Coaching changes, which may have a good effect long-term, often cause a short-term setback because of the adjustments that they require from players. During the offseason, Miami changed its defensive coaching staff in several respects that, including the play-calling, have yet to help.
Personnel-wise, there are issues. During the offseason, Miami lost two starters at defensive end who had done a great job of causing havoc in the backfield.
Moreover, Miami's returning linebackers do not seem to be of the same quality as the group that had annually sustained excellence before leaving for the NFL. In this case, experience is a bad thing because it means struggling players returning without other guys being good enough to take their spot on the depth chart and make a difference.
Miami's Offensive Problems
In order to bet on the favorite, one obviously must want that favorite to be strong enough offensively in order to win by enough points to cover the spread.
But the Hurricanes show a slew of problems on offense right now.
The tempo is slow, which points to a deeper lack of identity because Miami's tempo is supposed to be quick.
PFF grades also point to a low quality of run-blocking, yards after the catch, and wide receiver separation. One disappointing receiver is Mike Harley, who seems to be making a habit of slow season starts.
A Spartan defense with a lot of returning experience especially at defensive line and in the secondary will have an easier test on Saturday.
Best Bet: Spartans +6.5 at -113 with BetOnline
