NCAA Football Week 11 Parlay Plays for Saturday
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 14, noon ET (ABC) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Indiana’s pass defense ranks 69th despite facing Rutgers, a Penn State quarterback whose starting job is probably in jeopardy, and a Michigan quarterback who cannot survive as a pocket passer.
In turn, it’s easy to underrate Michigan State’s passing attack particularly because one may be afflicted with previous impressions of quarterback Rocky Lombardi.
Whereas Lombardi averaged 4.8 YPA when he received extending playing time in 2018, he is averaging 7.8 YPA this season as a starter.
Against Indiana’s high yardage-yielding pass defense, Lombardi will hit connect with a strong wide receiving group on a number of downfield throws.
One worthy mention is Ricky White, an incoming freshman who Lombardi has already developed chemistry with.
In his team’s upset win at Michigan, White accumulated 196 receiving yards on eight receptions.
His superior speed makes him a promising downfield target for Lombardi.
Depth characterizes the Spartan receiving crew, which is particularly important against a Hoosier secondary that suffers a startling drop-off after its top cornerback.
Jalen Nailor, whose speed makes him a versatile option for jet sweeps and the like, is the team’s leading receiver. He’s so elusive and his additional explosiveness allows him to make plays happen across the field in seemingly unpropitious situations.
Jayden Reed, who caught 11 passes for 128 yards against Rutgers, also showcases big-play ability.
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Michigan State’s secondary is exceeding expectations.
One defensive back who has stepped up amidst the initially concerning vacuum created by offseason departures is Shakur Brown.
At 6-2, Brown features nice length, which he’s used to accumulate four pass-breakups in his past two games combined.
Chris Jackson is also noteworthy as he builds off of the promise and hype that his offseason efforts elicited.
The Spartans have faced pass-heavy offenses, which explains why they allow a decent number of pass yards per game.
But they are an efficient pass defense, ranking 19th nationally in opposing YPA.
With cornerbacks who are able to play tight coverage, the Spartans will succeed against yet another big-armed but inefficient quarterback.
The Situation
After earning a win over Michigan that is momentous for the program and before facing Ohio State, the Hoosiers find themselves in a sandwich spot.
It will be easier for them to overlook Michigan State, which comes off a 49-7 loss to Iowa in what was a let-down game that followed the Spartans’ thrilling upset win over Michigan.
Indiana, moreover, is a bit overrated as the nation’s 10th-ranked team. Its biggest-named victims — Penn State, which easily dominated the Hoosiers in terms of yardage, and Michigan — are turning out to be much worse than one could ever have expected.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN) in Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium in College Park, Maryland
Key Trend:
The trend to note is that the “over” is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
This is an Ohio State squad that is glad to exceed 40 or 50 points against big underdogs.
In two games at 20+-point favorites this season, the Buckeyes have scored 52 and 49 points, respectively.
So we need the Buckeyes to keep up this trend. For my “over” play, we’ll likely only need three touchdowns from the Terrapins.
Ohio State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Led by Justin Fields and at least two superb wide receivers, the Buckeye pass attack ranks 20th nationally in terms of yards per game.
Fields is relentlessly accurate — he’s completing an absurd 86.7 percent of his passes while throwing 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions.
The thing to note about Fields is that he’s efficient not at all because he throws easily completable passes.
He’s averaging 10.9 YPA, which is easily a career high for him.
He does benefit from having Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to throw to. Those are his two leading receivers who are able to make difficult catches for him when necessary.
They will thrive against a Maryland secondary that entered this season young, relatively raw, largely unproven, and far less talented.
The Terrapin secondary largely explains why Maryland’s pass defense ranks 83rd nationally.
Because its run defense has also been so problematic, Maryland’s secondary mostly remains untested. Fields and company will provide the Terps with their toughest test of the season.
Maryland Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
What will push this game over the total is the Terps’ own pass attack.
Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Tua, is finding his own as Maryland’s starting quarterback.
Tagovailoa has amassed a total of 676 passing yards in his past two games — against Minnesota and Penn State — combined.
The former Alabama transfer quarterback shows confidence in the pocket and a strong arm that allows him to blaze deeper balls along the sidelines.
His 67.4 completion percentage attests to his accuracy despite attempting a lot of difficult throws.
Tagovailoa has big-play targets to find who ably accumulate 50+-yard receptions. They’ll help Maryland score in a hurry against a regressed Buckeye secondary whose top cornerback was an early first-round pick.
Best Bet: Parlay Spartans +7.5 (-115) + Buckeyes/Terrapins Over 72.5 (-110) at +257 with BetOnline
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 14, noon ET (ABC) at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Indiana’s pass defense ranks 69th despite facing Rutgers, a Penn State quarterback whose starting job is probably in jeopardy, and a Michigan quarterback who cannot survive as a pocket passer.
In turn, it’s easy to underrate Michigan State’s passing attack particularly because one may be afflicted with previous impressions of quarterback Rocky Lombardi.
Whereas Lombardi averaged 4.8 YPA when he received extending playing time in 2018, he is averaging 7.8 YPA this season as a starter.
Against Indiana’s high yardage-yielding pass defense, Lombardi will hit connect with a strong wide receiving group on a number of downfield throws.
One worthy mention is Ricky White, an incoming freshman who Lombardi has already developed chemistry with.
In his team’s upset win at Michigan, White accumulated 196 receiving yards on eight receptions.
His superior speed makes him a promising downfield target for Lombardi.
Depth characterizes the Spartan receiving crew, which is particularly important against a Hoosier secondary that suffers a startling drop-off after its top cornerback.
Jalen Nailor, whose speed makes him a versatile option for jet sweeps and the like, is the team’s leading receiver. He’s so elusive and his additional explosiveness allows him to make plays happen across the field in seemingly unpropitious situations.
Jayden Reed, who caught 11 passes for 128 yards against Rutgers, also showcases big-play ability.
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Michigan State’s secondary is exceeding expectations.
One defensive back who has stepped up amidst the initially concerning vacuum created by offseason departures is Shakur Brown.
At 6-2, Brown features nice length, which he’s used to accumulate four pass-breakups in his past two games combined.
Chris Jackson is also noteworthy as he builds off of the promise and hype that his offseason efforts elicited.
The Spartans have faced pass-heavy offenses, which explains why they allow a decent number of pass yards per game.
But they are an efficient pass defense, ranking 19th nationally in opposing YPA.
With cornerbacks who are able to play tight coverage, the Spartans will succeed against yet another big-armed but inefficient quarterback.
The Situation
After earning a win over Michigan that is momentous for the program and before facing Ohio State, the Hoosiers find themselves in a sandwich spot.
It will be easier for them to overlook Michigan State, which comes off a 49-7 loss to Iowa in what was a let-down game that followed the Spartans’ thrilling upset win over Michigan.
Indiana, moreover, is a bit overrated as the nation’s 10th-ranked team. Its biggest-named victims — Penn State, which easily dominated the Hoosiers in terms of yardage, and Michigan — are turning out to be much worse than one could ever have expected.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN) in Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium in College Park, Maryland
Key Trend:
The trend to note is that the “over” is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
This is an Ohio State squad that is glad to exceed 40 or 50 points against big underdogs.
In two games at 20+-point favorites this season, the Buckeyes have scored 52 and 49 points, respectively.
So we need the Buckeyes to keep up this trend. For my “over” play, we’ll likely only need three touchdowns from the Terrapins.
Ohio State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
Led by Justin Fields and at least two superb wide receivers, the Buckeye pass attack ranks 20th nationally in terms of yards per game.
Fields is relentlessly accurate — he’s completing an absurd 86.7 percent of his passes while throwing 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions.
The thing to note about Fields is that he’s efficient not at all because he throws easily completable passes.
He’s averaging 10.9 YPA, which is easily a career high for him.
He does benefit from having Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to throw to. Those are his two leading receivers who are able to make difficult catches for him when necessary.
They will thrive against a Maryland secondary that entered this season young, relatively raw, largely unproven, and far less talented.
The Terrapin secondary largely explains why Maryland’s pass defense ranks 83rd nationally.
Because its run defense has also been so problematic, Maryland’s secondary mostly remains untested. Fields and company will provide the Terps with their toughest test of the season.
Maryland Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
What will push this game over the total is the Terps’ own pass attack.
Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Tua, is finding his own as Maryland’s starting quarterback.
Tagovailoa has amassed a total of 676 passing yards in his past two games — against Minnesota and Penn State — combined.
The former Alabama transfer quarterback shows confidence in the pocket and a strong arm that allows him to blaze deeper balls along the sidelines.
His 67.4 completion percentage attests to his accuracy despite attempting a lot of difficult throws.
Tagovailoa has big-play targets to find who ably accumulate 50+-yard receptions. They’ll help Maryland score in a hurry against a regressed Buckeye secondary whose top cornerback was an early first-round pick.
Best Bet: Parlay Spartans +7.5 (-115) + Buckeyes/Terrapins Over 72.5 (-110) at +257 with BetOnline
