Miami vs. Virginia Tech: NCAAF Week 11 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN2) at Lane Stadium/Worsham Field in Blacksburg, Virginia
Bounce-back Opportunity
I fear that bettors will look to fade Virginia Tech because it just suffered a loss that is very embarrassing to the Hokie football program.
Last Saturday, Liberty defeated Virginia Tech despite being 17-point underdogs.
Since Justin Fuente became the team’s head coach towards the end of the 2015 season, the program has suffered multiple losses that one could call embarrassing to varying degrees.
What we ultimately have here is a solid track record of Fuente making use of bounce-back chances as Virginia Tech’s head coach. In order to show how great of a betting spot Virginia Tech is in, let’s go through those chances.
In 2016, Virginia Tech was blown out as double-digit underdogs against Tennessee. The Hokies won the next game against Boston College 49-0, although they were favored by only 6.5 points.
In that same year, the Hokies lost by two touchdowns to 23-point underdog Syracuse. They followed that disaster with a 21-point win against 4.5-point underdog Miami.
Likewise in 2016, they lost to lowly Georgia Tech and then upset Notre Dame in South Bend the following week.
The next embarrassing loss for Virginia Tech took place in 2018 when it lost by two touchdowns to 28-point underdog Old Dominion. In its next game, Virginia Tech smashed favored Duke 31-14.
In 2019, the Hokies were blown out by 35 points by Duke. They bounced back by upsetting 14-point favorite Miami on the road the following week.
This year, 10.5-point underdog Wake Forest upset Virginia Tech. In its following game, V Tech covered the spread against Louisville.
So, since Fuente became Virginia Tech’s head coach, the Hokies are 5-0 ATS in the game following a loss to a double-digit underdog.
If you also account for blowout losses against teams that aren’t double-digit underdogs, that trend becomes 6-0 ATS.
Mobile Quarterbacks
Miami’s defense appears unreliable against mobile quarterbacks.
Recent evidence for this unreliability is provided by its game against Louisville where the Cardinals accrued 34 points.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham made use of his mobility by making throws on the run.
Cunningham ran also in order to shift the defense in a way that created open spaces for him to throw to.
He often complemented his quickness on the ground with a bevy of quick passes that the Hurricanes could not defend.
Overall, he had one of his best games of the season by just about any statistical measure.
Likewise, when the Hurricanes edged underdog Virginia, opposing quarterback Brennan Armstrong ran for a season-high 91 yards on a season-high 6.1 YPC.
Armstrong also produced his second-best game of the season as a passer as measured by his passer rating.
Hendon Hooker
One may doubt that it quite matters very much that Virginia Tech owns a mobile quarterback.
The Hurricane pass defense ranks in the bottom half nationally not just because of opposing mobile quarterbacks.
But it will help that Hooker is mobile.
If you watch film on Hooker, you’ll see that he resembles Cunningham firstly in his willingness to stand in the pocket and deliver accurate throws.
His accuracy helps him complete 66.3 percent of his passes. He also uses fakes like play-action in order to help his pass-catching targets get open.
History — such as Miami’s history against Malik Cunningham -- suggests that Hooker will get the Hurricane defense to bite on these fakes.
Of course, Hooker is also going to use his mobility. Virginia Tech likes to feature him in a number of designed runs where he uses his patience and vision as a runner.
He actually leads the team with eight rushing touchdowns. He’s the Hokies’ second-leading rusher with 515 yards and he averages 6.3 YPC.
His mobility moreover helps him make throws on the run where his accuracy remains strong.
So his dual-threat quality will bother an already vulnerable Hurricane pass defense that has revealed particular struggles against Hooker’s type.
Tight Ends
Another particular weakness of Miami’s defense that Virginia Tech will exploit is the tight end.
Opposing tight ends tend to play active and successful roles in the passing game against Miami’s defense.
This tendency was apparent in the Hurricanes’ last game where Cary Angeline almost replicated his season-high yardage total for NC State.
Virginia Tech will exploit this tendency with third-leading receiver James Mitchell who almost leads the team in YPC.
Weakness at Linebacker
Miami’s vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks and against tight ends is encouraged by its situation at linebacker.
During the offseason, the Hurricanes lost Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckney.
Those two linebackers formed a strong and consistent pair, year after year, for the Hurricane defense.
Now, the Hurricanes possess a group of linebackers that is weak in space and weak in coverage.
The Verdict
Feel free to bet on Virginia Tech now or later. I expect the College Football Odds to move in Miami’s favor because bettors will look at the Hokies’ most recent game and will want to bet on Miami.
Also, if running back Khalil Herbert is unable to play, Miami may become the favorite at the top sportsbooks.
This last reality may take place because people overrate the importance of running backs. However, Virginia Tech owns the nation’s fourth-best ground attack largely due to its offensive line.
Also, don’t blindly bet the “over.” I get that it’s tempting to do so because of how both defenses rank. But the number seems too high based on how many points these teams usually concede and put up. I would stay away from the total.
I didn’t get into Virginia Tech’s defense. My point is that the Hokies are going to outscore Miami by taking unique advantage of its defensive weaknesses. The strong bounce-back trend should make us extremely confident in a play on the Hokies.
Best Bet: Hokies -2 at -109 at GTBets
Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN2) at Lane Stadium/Worsham Field in Blacksburg, Virginia
Bounce-back Opportunity
I fear that bettors will look to fade Virginia Tech because it just suffered a loss that is very embarrassing to the Hokie football program.
Last Saturday, Liberty defeated Virginia Tech despite being 17-point underdogs.
Since Justin Fuente became the team’s head coach towards the end of the 2015 season, the program has suffered multiple losses that one could call embarrassing to varying degrees.
What we ultimately have here is a solid track record of Fuente making use of bounce-back chances as Virginia Tech’s head coach. In order to show how great of a betting spot Virginia Tech is in, let’s go through those chances.
In 2016, Virginia Tech was blown out as double-digit underdogs against Tennessee. The Hokies won the next game against Boston College 49-0, although they were favored by only 6.5 points.
In that same year, the Hokies lost by two touchdowns to 23-point underdog Syracuse. They followed that disaster with a 21-point win against 4.5-point underdog Miami.
Likewise in 2016, they lost to lowly Georgia Tech and then upset Notre Dame in South Bend the following week.
The next embarrassing loss for Virginia Tech took place in 2018 when it lost by two touchdowns to 28-point underdog Old Dominion. In its next game, Virginia Tech smashed favored Duke 31-14.
In 2019, the Hokies were blown out by 35 points by Duke. They bounced back by upsetting 14-point favorite Miami on the road the following week.
This year, 10.5-point underdog Wake Forest upset Virginia Tech. In its following game, V Tech covered the spread against Louisville.
So, since Fuente became Virginia Tech’s head coach, the Hokies are 5-0 ATS in the game following a loss to a double-digit underdog.
If you also account for blowout losses against teams that aren’t double-digit underdogs, that trend becomes 6-0 ATS.
Mobile Quarterbacks
Miami’s defense appears unreliable against mobile quarterbacks.
Recent evidence for this unreliability is provided by its game against Louisville where the Cardinals accrued 34 points.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham made use of his mobility by making throws on the run.
Cunningham ran also in order to shift the defense in a way that created open spaces for him to throw to.
He often complemented his quickness on the ground with a bevy of quick passes that the Hurricanes could not defend.
Overall, he had one of his best games of the season by just about any statistical measure.
Likewise, when the Hurricanes edged underdog Virginia, opposing quarterback Brennan Armstrong ran for a season-high 91 yards on a season-high 6.1 YPC.
Armstrong also produced his second-best game of the season as a passer as measured by his passer rating.
Hendon Hooker
One may doubt that it quite matters very much that Virginia Tech owns a mobile quarterback.
The Hurricane pass defense ranks in the bottom half nationally not just because of opposing mobile quarterbacks.
But it will help that Hooker is mobile.
If you watch film on Hooker, you’ll see that he resembles Cunningham firstly in his willingness to stand in the pocket and deliver accurate throws.
His accuracy helps him complete 66.3 percent of his passes. He also uses fakes like play-action in order to help his pass-catching targets get open.
History — such as Miami’s history against Malik Cunningham -- suggests that Hooker will get the Hurricane defense to bite on these fakes.
Of course, Hooker is also going to use his mobility. Virginia Tech likes to feature him in a number of designed runs where he uses his patience and vision as a runner.
He actually leads the team with eight rushing touchdowns. He’s the Hokies’ second-leading rusher with 515 yards and he averages 6.3 YPC.
His mobility moreover helps him make throws on the run where his accuracy remains strong.
So his dual-threat quality will bother an already vulnerable Hurricane pass defense that has revealed particular struggles against Hooker’s type.
Tight Ends
Another particular weakness of Miami’s defense that Virginia Tech will exploit is the tight end.
Opposing tight ends tend to play active and successful roles in the passing game against Miami’s defense.
This tendency was apparent in the Hurricanes’ last game where Cary Angeline almost replicated his season-high yardage total for NC State.
Virginia Tech will exploit this tendency with third-leading receiver James Mitchell who almost leads the team in YPC.
Weakness at Linebacker
Miami’s vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks and against tight ends is encouraged by its situation at linebacker.
During the offseason, the Hurricanes lost Shaq Quarterman and Michael Pinckney.
Those two linebackers formed a strong and consistent pair, year after year, for the Hurricane defense.
Now, the Hurricanes possess a group of linebackers that is weak in space and weak in coverage.
The Verdict
Feel free to bet on Virginia Tech now or later. I expect the College Football Odds to move in Miami’s favor because bettors will look at the Hokies’ most recent game and will want to bet on Miami.
Also, if running back Khalil Herbert is unable to play, Miami may become the favorite at the top sportsbooks.
This last reality may take place because people overrate the importance of running backs. However, Virginia Tech owns the nation’s fourth-best ground attack largely due to its offensive line.
Also, don’t blindly bet the “over.” I get that it’s tempting to do so because of how both defenses rank. But the number seems too high based on how many points these teams usually concede and put up. I would stay away from the total.
I didn’t get into Virginia Tech’s defense. My point is that the Hokies are going to outscore Miami by taking unique advantage of its defensive weaknesses. The strong bounce-back trend should make us extremely confident in a play on the Hokies.
Best Bet: Hokies -2 at -109 at GTBets
