Miami vs Pittsburgh: NCAAF Week 9 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Miami vs Pittsburgh
Saturday, October 26 at noon ET on ESPN at Heinz Field
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Pittsburgh as three-point favorites against visiting Miami. But bettors have already moved the spread to as high as six.
I suspect that at least much of the betting love for Pitt stems from recency bias as Miami suffered an embarrassing loss last week to Georgia Tech.
A tendency in this year’s Miami has been to bounce back after a hard-to-accept defeat. After losing as five-point favorites to UNC, the Hurricanes covered the 41-point spread in their next game against Bethune Cookman by a 22-point margin.
Likewise, after losing against favored Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes responded by upsetting Virginia. So the line is moving in the wrong direction because the line-moving bettors aren’t accounting for Miami’s bounce-back trend.
So far, then, Miami is 2-0 ATS in the game directly following an ATS loss. Another trend to note expresses Miami’s historic success in Pittsburgh where the Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 6-1 SU in their last seven.
Pittsburgh Can’t Score Enough
Because the Panthers are favored, one could only reasonably bet on them if one could trust their offensive production. But Pittsburgh’s offense is in a vulnerable spot as it’s being forced into a new identity.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has perforce shifted its identity this year after the departure of its two star running backs from last year. Whereas the Panthers held the 14th-highest rush play percentage last year, they’ve dropped to 120th in the category this year.
In the backfield, Pitt has leaned on A.J. Davis and Todd Sibley. Davis is averaging 4.9 YPC this season, a figure that he elevated after a strong performance against Syracuse’s 86th-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC.
While Davis derives the bulk of his positive stats from games against Syracuse and Ohio out of the MAC, Sibley averages just 4.2 YPC. The biggest reason why that figure is this high is his 106-yard effort against FCS Delaware.
Miami’s run defense will present Pitt’s rush attack with a strong challenge as the Hurricanes rank 10th in allowing 2.9 YPC. Pitt’s offense ranks 113th in YPC, which ranks similarly low to Virginia and Florida ground attacks that got nothing going against Miami despite possessing some respectable ball-carriers like Lamical Perine.
Miami’s Pass Defense Will Shut Down Pitt
Pitt’s offensive productivity will hinge entirely on its pass attack. Kenny Pickett regularly attempts over 30 passes per game. The second-year starter is very much developing, but still has a long way to go.
He’s still failing to complete 60 percent of his passes on the season while he’s thrown four interceptions in three ACC games thus far.
One problem for Pickett, besides his own nascent development, is his dependence on just two wide receivers in Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench. No other Panther has more than 13 receptions.
Miami possesses the personnel in its secondary to contain these two receivers. Its most notable cornerback is Trajan Bandy. He’s small, but extremely physical. He will be all over his opposing receiver and his ability to prevent separation has enabled him to lead the Hurricanes with six passes defensed.
The other important cornerback is D.J. Ivey. With his superior size, he matches up well against the larger Mack.
A strong pass rush serves as a blessing for a team’s cornerbacks because it forces the opposing quarterback to make quicker decisions and gives less time for opposing wide receivers to gain separation.
Pass rush is Miami’s notorious strength as the Hurricanes rank 19th in sack rate. While Jonathan Garvin’s numbers are down this year as he faces many more double teams, other Hurricanes are stepping up. Miami is able to rely on players from all three defensive levels to attack the quarterback. In general, Hurricane players will spend a lot of time in Pitt’s backfield.
Keep An Eye Out For News About DeeJay Dallas and Jeff Thomas
DeeJay Dallas is Miami’s premiere running back who averages 6.7 YPC. He’s listed as ‚questionable‘ with a knee injury.
If Dallas can’t go, Cam’Ron Harris will get the start. Except for the occasional big run, Harris is fairly unproven.
Jeff Thomas is Miami’s top playmaker at wide receiver and he’s also listed as ‚questionable‘ with a looming suspension, although he did practice on Tuesday. As a quick and dynamic playmaker, Thomas is a great outlet for quick passes with which Miami can counter Pitt’s pass rush.
Conclusion
While the absence of these players could only give our spread even more points, my pick does not rest on their participation in Saturday’s contest because Miami’s defense and the team’s bounce-back situation make Pittsburgh a must-fade as the favored team.
Best Bet: Hurricanes +6 at -110 odds with Bookmaker
Miami vs Pittsburgh
Saturday, October 26 at noon ET on ESPN at Heinz Field
Odds
Oddsmakers opened Pittsburgh as three-point favorites against visiting Miami. But bettors have already moved the spread to as high as six.
I suspect that at least much of the betting love for Pitt stems from recency bias as Miami suffered an embarrassing loss last week to Georgia Tech.
A tendency in this year’s Miami has been to bounce back after a hard-to-accept defeat. After losing as five-point favorites to UNC, the Hurricanes covered the 41-point spread in their next game against Bethune Cookman by a 22-point margin.
Likewise, after losing against favored Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes responded by upsetting Virginia. So the line is moving in the wrong direction because the line-moving bettors aren’t accounting for Miami’s bounce-back trend.
So far, then, Miami is 2-0 ATS in the game directly following an ATS loss. Another trend to note expresses Miami’s historic success in Pittsburgh where the Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 6-1 SU in their last seven.
Pittsburgh Can’t Score Enough
Because the Panthers are favored, one could only reasonably bet on them if one could trust their offensive production. But Pittsburgh’s offense is in a vulnerable spot as it’s being forced into a new identity.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has perforce shifted its identity this year after the departure of its two star running backs from last year. Whereas the Panthers held the 14th-highest rush play percentage last year, they’ve dropped to 120th in the category this year.
In the backfield, Pitt has leaned on A.J. Davis and Todd Sibley. Davis is averaging 4.9 YPC this season, a figure that he elevated after a strong performance against Syracuse’s 86th-ranked run defense in terms of opposing YPC.
While Davis derives the bulk of his positive stats from games against Syracuse and Ohio out of the MAC, Sibley averages just 4.2 YPC. The biggest reason why that figure is this high is his 106-yard effort against FCS Delaware.
Miami’s run defense will present Pitt’s rush attack with a strong challenge as the Hurricanes rank 10th in allowing 2.9 YPC. Pitt’s offense ranks 113th in YPC, which ranks similarly low to Virginia and Florida ground attacks that got nothing going against Miami despite possessing some respectable ball-carriers like Lamical Perine.
Miami’s Pass Defense Will Shut Down Pitt
Pitt’s offensive productivity will hinge entirely on its pass attack. Kenny Pickett regularly attempts over 30 passes per game. The second-year starter is very much developing, but still has a long way to go.
He’s still failing to complete 60 percent of his passes on the season while he’s thrown four interceptions in three ACC games thus far.
One problem for Pickett, besides his own nascent development, is his dependence on just two wide receivers in Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench. No other Panther has more than 13 receptions.
Miami possesses the personnel in its secondary to contain these two receivers. Its most notable cornerback is Trajan Bandy. He’s small, but extremely physical. He will be all over his opposing receiver and his ability to prevent separation has enabled him to lead the Hurricanes with six passes defensed.
The other important cornerback is D.J. Ivey. With his superior size, he matches up well against the larger Mack.
A strong pass rush serves as a blessing for a team’s cornerbacks because it forces the opposing quarterback to make quicker decisions and gives less time for opposing wide receivers to gain separation.
Pass rush is Miami’s notorious strength as the Hurricanes rank 19th in sack rate. While Jonathan Garvin’s numbers are down this year as he faces many more double teams, other Hurricanes are stepping up. Miami is able to rely on players from all three defensive levels to attack the quarterback. In general, Hurricane players will spend a lot of time in Pitt’s backfield.
Keep An Eye Out For News About DeeJay Dallas and Jeff Thomas
DeeJay Dallas is Miami’s premiere running back who averages 6.7 YPC. He’s listed as ‚questionable‘ with a knee injury.
If Dallas can’t go, Cam’Ron Harris will get the start. Except for the occasional big run, Harris is fairly unproven.
Jeff Thomas is Miami’s top playmaker at wide receiver and he’s also listed as ‚questionable‘ with a looming suspension, although he did practice on Tuesday. As a quick and dynamic playmaker, Thomas is a great outlet for quick passes with which Miami can counter Pitt’s pass rush.
Conclusion
While the absence of these players could only give our spread even more points, my pick does not rest on their participation in Saturday’s contest because Miami’s defense and the team’s bounce-back situation make Pittsburgh a must-fade as the favored team.
Best Bet: Hurricanes +6 at -110 odds with Bookmaker
