MLB Parlay for Today at (+326) Features AL East Showdown in Baltimore
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia,
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Trevor Rogers tonight.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Rogers is his team's least profitable pitcher, and it isn't close.
Overall, he yields -11.4 units.
His most recent starts contribute to the fact that he's been a horrible pitcher to invest in.
The Marlins have lost the last five games in which Rogers started, including the one in which they were favored at -165 against Pittsburgh.
Rogers is frequently the underdog, and it hasn't been paying off to invest in the plus money in his starts.
In games in which Rogers is listed as the underdog, Miami is yielding -8.5 units.
Avoid Recency Bias
It is part of human psychology to tend to attach exaggerated significance to most recent events.
But this tendency would be problematic in Rogers' case.
While it may be tempting to like Rogers tonight because he is coming off a strong start, to like him for this reason would show a lack of awareness of his season-long tendencies.
Specifically, Rogers is someone who constantly struggles to be consistent in terms of the run totals that he yields.
Rogers vs. Philly Batters
More critically, Rogers merits pessimism tonight because he matches up poorly against Philly batters given the pitches that he throws and the fact that he's left-handed.
He relies on three pitches: a fastball, changeup, and slider.
Percentage-wise, he easily throws his fastball most often.
Batters are seeing this pitch 52 percent of the time.
Even though it's his favorite pitch, he struggles to be effective with it.
Opponents hit .323 and slug .565 against his fastball, often taking advantage of its frequent tendency to land in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
One should expect Philadelphia to thrive against all his pitches because they rank seventh in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Bailey Falter starts for the Phillies tonight.
In contrast to Rogers, Falter has collected the win in each of his last three starts.
This ongoing trend has made him all the more profitable to back.
Philadelphia has won the last four games in which he started.
Falter is now his team's most profitable pitcher, yielding +6.7 units.
The Phillies are 5-1 when he is listed as the favorite.
Falter vs. Marlin Batters
Falter's favorite pitches are his sinker, fastball, and slider.
These three pitches make up over 80 percent of his arsenal.
He looks reliable tonight because the Marlins rank 29thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Plus, Falter is easily a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
He induces ground balls with only 31-percent frequency.
This fact makes up match up even better against Marlin batters because they are their worst against fly ball-inducing pitchers, slugging .344 against them.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Toronto?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today.
Manoah enters this game in strong form.
Specifically, he has allowed one earned run or zero runs in each of his last three starts while lasting at least six innings in each of them.
Manoah in Baltimore
He last pitched in Baltimore on August 9.
His 5.40 ERA in that game masks his 2.31 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which reflects how well he actually performed.
Given his current form, Manoah looks primed for another solid individual performance.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Similar to Manoah, Kremer enters today in strong form.
Kremer has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, thriving even against Houston and, indeed, Toronto on the road.
Both of these teams rank top-six in slugging against Kremer's pitches, which shows his current ability to dominate even those lineups that match up well against him on paper.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies RL at +118 & Blue Jays/Orioles under 7.5 at -105 at +325 odds with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia,
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts Trevor Rogers tonight.
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Rogers is his team's least profitable pitcher, and it isn't close.
Overall, he yields -11.4 units.
His most recent starts contribute to the fact that he's been a horrible pitcher to invest in.
The Marlins have lost the last five games in which Rogers started, including the one in which they were favored at -165 against Pittsburgh.
Rogers is frequently the underdog, and it hasn't been paying off to invest in the plus money in his starts.
In games in which Rogers is listed as the underdog, Miami is yielding -8.5 units.
Avoid Recency Bias
It is part of human psychology to tend to attach exaggerated significance to most recent events.
But this tendency would be problematic in Rogers' case.
While it may be tempting to like Rogers tonight because he is coming off a strong start, to like him for this reason would show a lack of awareness of his season-long tendencies.
Specifically, Rogers is someone who constantly struggles to be consistent in terms of the run totals that he yields.
Rogers vs. Philly Batters
More critically, Rogers merits pessimism tonight because he matches up poorly against Philly batters given the pitches that he throws and the fact that he's left-handed.
He relies on three pitches: a fastball, changeup, and slider.
Percentage-wise, he easily throws his fastball most often.
Batters are seeing this pitch 52 percent of the time.
Even though it's his favorite pitch, he struggles to be effective with it.
Opponents hit .323 and slug .565 against his fastball, often taking advantage of its frequent tendency to land in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
One should expect Philadelphia to thrive against all his pitches because they rank seventh in slugging against these pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Philadelphia?
Bailey Falter starts for the Phillies tonight.
In contrast to Rogers, Falter has collected the win in each of his last three starts.
This ongoing trend has made him all the more profitable to back.
Philadelphia has won the last four games in which he started.
Falter is now his team's most profitable pitcher, yielding +6.7 units.
The Phillies are 5-1 when he is listed as the favorite.
Falter vs. Marlin Batters
Falter's favorite pitches are his sinker, fastball, and slider.
These three pitches make up over 80 percent of his arsenal.
He looks reliable tonight because the Marlins rank 29thin slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Plus, Falter is easily a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
He induces ground balls with only 31-percent frequency.
This fact makes up match up even better against Marlin batters because they are their worst against fly ball-inducing pitchers, slugging .344 against them.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Toronto?
Alek Manoah starts for Toronto today.
Manoah enters this game in strong form.
Specifically, he has allowed one earned run or zero runs in each of his last three starts while lasting at least six innings in each of them.
Manoah in Baltimore
He last pitched in Baltimore on August 9.
His 5.40 ERA in that game masks his 2.31 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which reflects how well he actually performed.
Given his current form, Manoah looks primed for another solid individual performance.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Similar to Manoah, Kremer enters today in strong form.
Kremer has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, thriving even against Houston and, indeed, Toronto on the road.
Both of these teams rank top-six in slugging against Kremer's pitches, which shows his current ability to dominate even those lineups that match up well against him on paper.
Best Bet: Parlay Phillies RL at +118 & Blue Jays/Orioles under 7.5 at -105 at +325 odds with BetOnline
