Bet This NBA Playoffs Parlay at (+257) on Thursday
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's Offensive Weapons
On offense, Philadelphia attacks in primarily three ways: the post-up, the iso, and three-pointers.
Joel Embiid is largely responsible for the first manner of attack. He'll try to gain deep position near the basket from which point it is relatively easy for him to use his massive size and length to score.
James Harden is the main man for the second kind of attack. In these playoffs, few players are attempting isos at a higher frequency than Harden is.
As for three-pointers, three 76er players are attempting more than five threes per game in this postseason: Danny Green, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey,
Philadelphia's ability to score tonight will hinge on the success or failure of these three methods of scoring.
Philadelphia's Offensive Deficiencies
With respect to its ability to send the game "over" the posted total, I dislike the 76er offense because it has become clear in this series that its primary scorers are unreliable in their offensive endeavors.
Joel Embiid is playing with a broken face and a broken hand. On top of dealing with his facial fracture and sprained right thumb, he is getting triple-teamed.
Harden shows flashes of his former self, sure. I have liked him to do well in other games in this series. But I don't like that Miami will miss Kyle Lowry in Game 6 -- the Heat starting point guard has been ruled out for tonight's contest.
Lowry, at 6-0, is not as long as his backups. Length, though, is something that characteristically bothers Harden. Because Harden will deal with more length tonight as a result of Lowry sitting this game out, I do not expect much success from Harden.
Despite the individual games in which Harden has excelled, it is an objective fact that he has regressed.
He lacks his blow-by ability of old. Given his diminished physical skill set, he is not as effective or efficient in his favored iso game.
Currently, Harden is averaging 0.87 PPP (points per possession) on iso plays in the playoffs.
For comparison's sake, much less established Maverick guard Jalen Brunson is accruing 0.98 PPP on this play type, which are substantially more PPP than Harden.
Not having either Harden or Embiid at his best really limits Philadelphia's offensive ceiling.
The fact that Embiid is limited in the scoring department and that Harden is less reliable as an individual scorer hinders Philadelphia's chances of helping its games go "over."
Philly Threes
On top of an injured Embiid who is scoring way fewer points per game and a Harden who has lost a step dealing with more length, the 76ers will lean on their shooting.
But they lack quality shooters because they dealt away Seth Curry.
Still, they rank fourth in three-point percentage and the Heat defense is allowing the highest rate of open three-point attempts in these playoffs.
I don't think that Philly shooting will help this game go 'over.'
But returning home and shooting well from deep against this beatable Heat perimeter defense will help the 76ers cover the spread for tonight's game.
Embiid's Defense
Miami scored so few points in Games 3 and 4 partly because of perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Joel Embiid's return.
While Embiid is limited on offense, he still has all the tools he requires to be a good defender.
Part of why the Heat struggled in these games in Philadelphia was Embiid's elite rim protection.
With his size and length, he easily deters opposing players from collecting the courage to attempt shots near the basket and from possessing the ability to find reasonable scoring opportunities in this area of the court.
In Games 3 and 4, the Heat attempted baskets within nine feet of the basket at an exceedingly low rate.
Despite Jimmy Butler's utter heroics, despite his individual insanity as someone who wants to carry his team on offense largely by attacking inside the paint, the Heat failed to pose a sufficiently strong threat near the basket because Embiid was there to utilize his characteristic rim-protector skill set.
Embiid's rim protection places too much pressure on Heat three-point shooting.
So far in these playoffs, Miami owns the second-worst three-point percentage on the road.
It can be very hard for teams to play on the road in what is a difficult playoff-level atmosphere. Miami, with respect to its three-point shooting, is evidently such a team.
In this series, the home team has covered every game. Expect this trend to continue as the relentlessly greedy NBA execs get their beloved Game 7.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers -2 at -115 & Under 207 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Thursday, May 12, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Philadelphia's Offensive Weapons
On offense, Philadelphia attacks in primarily three ways: the post-up, the iso, and three-pointers.
Joel Embiid is largely responsible for the first manner of attack. He'll try to gain deep position near the basket from which point it is relatively easy for him to use his massive size and length to score.
James Harden is the main man for the second kind of attack. In these playoffs, few players are attempting isos at a higher frequency than Harden is.
As for three-pointers, three 76er players are attempting more than five threes per game in this postseason: Danny Green, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey,
Philadelphia's ability to score tonight will hinge on the success or failure of these three methods of scoring.
Philadelphia's Offensive Deficiencies
With respect to its ability to send the game "over" the posted total, I dislike the 76er offense because it has become clear in this series that its primary scorers are unreliable in their offensive endeavors.
Joel Embiid is playing with a broken face and a broken hand. On top of dealing with his facial fracture and sprained right thumb, he is getting triple-teamed.
Harden shows flashes of his former self, sure. I have liked him to do well in other games in this series. But I don't like that Miami will miss Kyle Lowry in Game 6 -- the Heat starting point guard has been ruled out for tonight's contest.
Lowry, at 6-0, is not as long as his backups. Length, though, is something that characteristically bothers Harden. Because Harden will deal with more length tonight as a result of Lowry sitting this game out, I do not expect much success from Harden.
Despite the individual games in which Harden has excelled, it is an objective fact that he has regressed.
He lacks his blow-by ability of old. Given his diminished physical skill set, he is not as effective or efficient in his favored iso game.
Currently, Harden is averaging 0.87 PPP (points per possession) on iso plays in the playoffs.
For comparison's sake, much less established Maverick guard Jalen Brunson is accruing 0.98 PPP on this play type, which are substantially more PPP than Harden.
Not having either Harden or Embiid at his best really limits Philadelphia's offensive ceiling.
The fact that Embiid is limited in the scoring department and that Harden is less reliable as an individual scorer hinders Philadelphia's chances of helping its games go "over."
Philly Threes
On top of an injured Embiid who is scoring way fewer points per game and a Harden who has lost a step dealing with more length, the 76ers will lean on their shooting.
But they lack quality shooters because they dealt away Seth Curry.
Still, they rank fourth in three-point percentage and the Heat defense is allowing the highest rate of open three-point attempts in these playoffs.
I don't think that Philly shooting will help this game go 'over.'
But returning home and shooting well from deep against this beatable Heat perimeter defense will help the 76ers cover the spread for tonight's game.
Embiid's Defense
Miami scored so few points in Games 3 and 4 partly because of perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Joel Embiid's return.
While Embiid is limited on offense, he still has all the tools he requires to be a good defender.
Part of why the Heat struggled in these games in Philadelphia was Embiid's elite rim protection.
With his size and length, he easily deters opposing players from collecting the courage to attempt shots near the basket and from possessing the ability to find reasonable scoring opportunities in this area of the court.
In Games 3 and 4, the Heat attempted baskets within nine feet of the basket at an exceedingly low rate.
Despite Jimmy Butler's utter heroics, despite his individual insanity as someone who wants to carry his team on offense largely by attacking inside the paint, the Heat failed to pose a sufficiently strong threat near the basket because Embiid was there to utilize his characteristic rim-protector skill set.
Embiid's rim protection places too much pressure on Heat three-point shooting.
So far in these playoffs, Miami owns the second-worst three-point percentage on the road.
It can be very hard for teams to play on the road in what is a difficult playoff-level atmosphere. Miami, with respect to its three-point shooting, is evidently such a team.
In this series, the home team has covered every game. Expect this trend to continue as the relentlessly greedy NBA execs get their beloved Game 7.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers -2 at -115 & Under 207 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
