NFL Week 4 TNF Odds, Pick and Prediction: Dolphins vs. Bengals
Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati
Misleading Stats about Miami's Defense
There might seem to be something dreadfully wrong with the Dolphins defense in the sense that they rank second-to-last at limiting opposing passing yards.
The reason for this statistic is important to highlight because many people will point to it in order to cheaply predict that Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow will thrive on Thursday night.
But Miami's defense has really only played one bad half of football, and this half was the first one in Baltimore, for which Miami redeemed itself by sufficiently shutting down the Raven offense in the second half to permit its offense to come back.
Most recently, the fact that Buffalo lacks a competent group of running backs also compelled Josh Allen to throw the ball 63 times.
Allen averaged all of 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA) in his game against Miami, which was 1.4 YPA below his season average.
Bend But Don't Break
Against Buffalo, the Dolphins played a great bend-but-don't break game.
Their focus on preventing touchdowns led to Buffalo, in the second half, having to attempt two 30-to-40-yard field goals and turning the ball over on downs from Miami's two-yard line.
It is my contention that the Dolphin defense's ability to keep everything in front of them will be decisive to limiting Burrow on Thursday.
Joe Burrow's Slow Start
Undoubtedly, the Bengal quarterback has not enjoyed the start to his season that he and likely everyone envisioned him to have.
Even after his last game against the lowly Jets, his passer rating is 23.1 points lower than it was last season.
Last season, Burrow shredded defenses when they presented him with single-high safety looks.
This coverage suits Burrow's proclivity to be aggressive.
He wants to make big plays downfield, and a quarterback is more able to connect on big passing plays against a single-high safety look.
Burrow is still aggressive -- according to Next Gen Stats, Burrow's aggressiveness percentage is even significantly higher than it was last season.
The problem with this aggressiveness is that teams are dealing him more two-high safety looks in order to take away his vertical passing endeavors.
Trying to make things happen, Burrow is taking a ridiculous number of sacks and is otherwise failing to achieve big plays.
Joe Mixon's Struggles
One way to induce the opposing defense to devote an extra safety to the box is by running the ball well.
But Cincinnati's starting running back is not himself right now -- Joe Mixon is averaging 1.3 fewer YPC than he did last season.
Mixon is slower and more hesitant to hit available holes, and he's struggling to withstand contact.
Cincinnati poses a negligible threat on the ground particularly with Mixon struggling, leaving their opposing defenses with every inclination to do what Miami just did against Buffalo and focus on keeping the offense in front of them.
Xavien Howard
It also helps to have two-time All-Pro selection and three-time Pro Bowler Xavien Howard.
Miami's stud cornerback will presumably be tasked with limiting Burrow's favorite target, Ja'Marr Chase.
Howard is allowing a 58.8 passer rating when targeted. Through two games, he has allowed a combined total of 36 yards while shadowing Patriot DeVante Parker in Week 1 and Raven Rashod Bateman in Week 2.
Tua Tagovailoa
As for Miami's starting quarterback, the health of Tua Tagovailoa seems to be a concern.
While he finished the game, the NFLPA is investigating his return onto the field after taking a hit that left him visibly wobbly to the point that he literally collapsed while trying to walk on his own.
He'll need to be fit because, similar to Cincinnati, Miami won't be able to count on its run game.
The Dolphins' leading running back averages all of 3.4 YPC.
Bengals' Pass Defense
Cincinnati's pass defense poses a strong test, ranking fifth at limiting the opposing passer rating.
Miami's top wide receivers, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, are characterized by their speed.
But their Bengal enemies, Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple, will not be intimidated.
Both Bengal cornerbacks rank in the 90th percentile or above in speed rate.
While Awuzie yielded a 49.4 passer rating through two weeks after dealing with Steeler Diontae Johnson and Dallas' CeeDee Lamb, Apple helped limit Jet receivers most recently.
The Verdict
Expect a lower-scoring game where both pass defenses limit the opposing quarterback.
The long drives that Burrow does put together will tend to end in field goals while Cincinnati's cornerback group effectively matches the quality of Miami's.
For the above reasons, I recommend playing the "under."
Score Prediction: Bengals 16 -- Dolphins 13
Best Bet: Under 47.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 29, 2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video) at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati
Misleading Stats about Miami's Defense
There might seem to be something dreadfully wrong with the Dolphins defense in the sense that they rank second-to-last at limiting opposing passing yards.
The reason for this statistic is important to highlight because many people will point to it in order to cheaply predict that Bengal quarterback Joe Burrow will thrive on Thursday night.
But Miami's defense has really only played one bad half of football, and this half was the first one in Baltimore, for which Miami redeemed itself by sufficiently shutting down the Raven offense in the second half to permit its offense to come back.
Most recently, the fact that Buffalo lacks a competent group of running backs also compelled Josh Allen to throw the ball 63 times.
Allen averaged all of 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA) in his game against Miami, which was 1.4 YPA below his season average.
Bend But Don't Break
Against Buffalo, the Dolphins played a great bend-but-don't break game.
Their focus on preventing touchdowns led to Buffalo, in the second half, having to attempt two 30-to-40-yard field goals and turning the ball over on downs from Miami's two-yard line.
It is my contention that the Dolphin defense's ability to keep everything in front of them will be decisive to limiting Burrow on Thursday.
Joe Burrow's Slow Start
Undoubtedly, the Bengal quarterback has not enjoyed the start to his season that he and likely everyone envisioned him to have.
Even after his last game against the lowly Jets, his passer rating is 23.1 points lower than it was last season.
Last season, Burrow shredded defenses when they presented him with single-high safety looks.
This coverage suits Burrow's proclivity to be aggressive.
He wants to make big plays downfield, and a quarterback is more able to connect on big passing plays against a single-high safety look.
Burrow is still aggressive -- according to Next Gen Stats, Burrow's aggressiveness percentage is even significantly higher than it was last season.
The problem with this aggressiveness is that teams are dealing him more two-high safety looks in order to take away his vertical passing endeavors.
Trying to make things happen, Burrow is taking a ridiculous number of sacks and is otherwise failing to achieve big plays.
Joe Mixon's Struggles
One way to induce the opposing defense to devote an extra safety to the box is by running the ball well.
But Cincinnati's starting running back is not himself right now -- Joe Mixon is averaging 1.3 fewer YPC than he did last season.
Mixon is slower and more hesitant to hit available holes, and he's struggling to withstand contact.
Cincinnati poses a negligible threat on the ground particularly with Mixon struggling, leaving their opposing defenses with every inclination to do what Miami just did against Buffalo and focus on keeping the offense in front of them.
Xavien Howard
It also helps to have two-time All-Pro selection and three-time Pro Bowler Xavien Howard.
Miami's stud cornerback will presumably be tasked with limiting Burrow's favorite target, Ja'Marr Chase.
Howard is allowing a 58.8 passer rating when targeted. Through two games, he has allowed a combined total of 36 yards while shadowing Patriot DeVante Parker in Week 1 and Raven Rashod Bateman in Week 2.
Tua Tagovailoa
As for Miami's starting quarterback, the health of Tua Tagovailoa seems to be a concern.
While he finished the game, the NFLPA is investigating his return onto the field after taking a hit that left him visibly wobbly to the point that he literally collapsed while trying to walk on his own.
He'll need to be fit because, similar to Cincinnati, Miami won't be able to count on its run game.
The Dolphins' leading running back averages all of 3.4 YPC.
Bengals' Pass Defense
Cincinnati's pass defense poses a strong test, ranking fifth at limiting the opposing passer rating.
Miami's top wide receivers, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, are characterized by their speed.
But their Bengal enemies, Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple, will not be intimidated.
Both Bengal cornerbacks rank in the 90th percentile or above in speed rate.
While Awuzie yielded a 49.4 passer rating through two weeks after dealing with Steeler Diontae Johnson and Dallas' CeeDee Lamb, Apple helped limit Jet receivers most recently.
The Verdict
Expect a lower-scoring game where both pass defenses limit the opposing quarterback.
The long drives that Burrow does put together will tend to end in field goals while Cincinnati's cornerback group effectively matches the quality of Miami's.
For the above reasons, I recommend playing the "under."
Score Prediction: Bengals 16 -- Dolphins 13
Best Bet: Under 47.5 at -110 with BetOnline
