Miami/Tennessee & Arizona/Dallas Parlay Preview Article

[VirginiaCavs]

Our Top NFL Week 17 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday's Games


Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, January 2, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee

Tennessee's Scoring Rut

The Titans have failed to exceed 20 points in each of their last five games.

On November 20, they scored 13 against the Texans. Then, they mustered 13 against New England, 20 against Jacksonville, 13 against Pittsburgh, and 20 against San Francisco.

Derrick Henry's absence has been critical. The elite running back wore down and plowed through defenses on a regular basis.

Besides sustaining drives and generating points with his physical skillset, he forced defenses to devote significant attention to him.

His absence has allowed defenses to spread out their attention with one result being that quarterback Ryan Tannehill has a greater onus to perform and has more obstacles to face from defenses.

AJ Brown

The drop-off after Henry and Tannehill's inability to carry an offense explains the Titan offensive rut.

In the second half of its last game against San Francisco, though, Tennessee managed to rediscover its explosive potential.

Henry was not back, of course, but AJ Brown was. Brown is a top-level wide receiver whose game-changing effort against the 49ers indicates that his ability to succeed against Miami will be decisive for the game's scoring total.

But Brown benefitted from facing a 49er secondary missing its top cornerback, Emmanuel Moseley.

Given Moseley's absence, he was often matched up against rookie Ambry Thomas.

Tannehill failed several times to take advantage of the Brown vs. Thomas mismatch by failing to throw the ball high enough, but even he figured it out eventually.

With most of his work coming in the second half, Brown amassed 11 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown.

Xavien Howard

Unlike San Francisco, Miami has a very expensive and top-level secondary that is healthy.

As part of its ongoing seven-game win streak -- during which Miami has not allowed 20 offensive points a single time -- Miami has relied on top-level cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

Howard is one key defender who has stepped up his play, limiting Buffalo star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to 30 yards. He then limited Houston's top wide receiver Brandin Cooks to nine yards.

Afterward, he held Baltimore's Marquise Brown to 18 yards. The list continues.
Howard is holding everybody in check no matter their caliber.

Tua

This season, Tennessee has boasted a top-ranked run defense and has been porous at times in its secondary.

The Titans haven't allowed more conservative or lackluster quarterbacks to hurt them, though.

Either easier competition or regrouping during the bye week explains why the Titans have allowed fewer than 20 points in each of their past three games: they shut out Jacksonville, allowed 19 points to Pittsburgh, and then allowed 17 points to San Francisco.

Tua is easier competition. He is limited to throwing shorter passes -- hence, he ranks 31st in air yards -- as he runs into trouble when attempting longer passes.

He'll help run clock by moving his offense slowly down the field, although he'll struggle to sustain drives against an improved Titan pass defense.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 2, 2021 at 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Dallas

Recency Bias

Bettors will surely look to bet the "over" in this game because they observed the ease with which Dallas pummeled Washington with a 56-point output.

But recall that Washington was playing on a short week -- its last game was Tuesday -- and thus suffered a significant physical disadvantage on defense.

It will thus be best to avoid according excessive significance to Dallas' last game because of the unique circumstances attached to it.

Needing To Run

Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott tends to struggle when he has to do too much.

So, he relies on a strong run game. Zeke Elliott, though, is regularly only good for his typical three-yard run up the middle. Elliott hasn't rushed for more than 52 yards in a game since October 17.

He and change-of-pace threat Tony Pollard will find little success against an improved Cardinal run defense that is consistently limiting strong opposing running backs.

Recently, Arizona held Chicago's David Montgomery in check except for one harmless 22-yard scamper. Afterward, it limited L.A.'s Sony Michel and then the elite Jonathan Taylor to four YPC.

Jordan Hicks with his downhill attacking, Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson with their ability to make up for Hicks' lack of athleticism are coalescing into a reliable force against the run, a force that will help make Dallas' offensive one-dimensional.

The Cardinal pass defense has not had the problems that the run defense used to suffer.

Currently, Arizona ranks fifth in limiting opposing pass yards per game.

Cardinals' Struggling Offense

Offensively, Arizona is suffering a rut: the Cardinals have failed to exceed 23 points in either of their last three games.

They are having trouble executing on a consistent basis. Kyler Murray is unable to sustain drives as he misses easy throws. Opposing defensive linemen are batting down would-be touchdown passes. The list continues.

The road -- Dallas' venue, no less -- is the wrong place for Arizona's offense to rediscover its groove.

As evident in its ability to limit Eagle quarterback Jalen Hurts' running, to force an ugly performance out of Patrick Mahomes, just to offer a couple examples, Dallas is comfortable against scrambling quarterbacks.

Kyler Murray will be confined to attempting to pass to a group of wide receivers that lacks a number-one guy since DeAndre Hopkins' injury.

The Verdict

Expect Miami's elite secondary to limit Tennessee's best hope of offense while the Titans' improved defense has no problems with Miami's conservative attack.

Meanwhile, expect the Cowboy offense fall back to Earth against a much stronger Arizona test while the Cowboy defense limits its fourth straight opponent to 20 points or fewer.

For the above reasons, bet the "under" in both games.

Best Bet: Parlay Dolphins/Titans Under 41 at -108 & Cardinals/Cowboys Under 51 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage

 

[2daBank]

Did you see the throw Tua made on 3rd and long from his own 10 at beginning the 2nd half? Pretty much the play that broke saints back and had to be 45ish air yards on a dime, while under pressure, he not incapable of stretching the field as the narrative seems to be with him, granted they don’t do it often but I’ve seen enough at this level and plenty at bama to think it redic to say he can’t throw down field.

I thought you were more in agreement me on Tua but here you say he “easier competition” than jags, Steelers, niners qbs? Not sure I agree with that, actually think he similar to Jimmy g and much better than Ben these days or goldy lox in Jacksonville. I do agree points will be tough to come by vs titans, their d did a number on rams offense also by creating a ton of pressure up the middle, you would think they will be able to work over fish oline. No problem w that under, kinda kicking myself for not doing what I said in Monday night game and playing a alternate under in the 20s!! Big mistake by me!!

Cardinals run defense ranks have kinda fallen off later in the season but they did mostly a great job on Taylor after allowing a 40 yard run on the 1st play, take away all the penalties, several of which were awful calls, and it was really a pretty dominate performance by their d on Xmas. Of course colts were missing majority of their offensive line and don’t have the weapons on the outside of a Dallas (Coop will feast again if they give him the cushion they gave to Pittman last week!!) Same with bears, they could focus on Montgomery with no real threat in passing game, that is the thing I like most about Dallas, they perfectly capable of beating you on ground or thru the air (especially at home where Dak and coop way better). Kinda hoping to see a low number attached to pollard since cards have seemingly gotten gashed on 1 run every week, if pollard gets one hole like those he can take to house and surpass his rush total with 1 carry!! Of course if Zeke gets that hole it be a harmless 15 yarder, lol.

Dallas is so explosive on their dline/pass rush. Think it easily one the scariest units in football right now with everyone healthy. Cards gonna have to get a run game going or Murray will be running for his life, not for big yards!! if they can establish the run it wouldn’t be the worst thing for your under, without Hopkins they not nearly as explosive in the pass game as they need to rely more on ertz to keep chains moving. Seems like a game that outta be played in the low 20s, long as neither team jumps out to a big lead which could screw this all up. The only other concern i have w under is both defenses capable of creating points for their teams.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Did you see the throw Tua made on 3rd and long from his own 10 at beginning the 2nd half? Pretty much the play that broke saints back and had to be 45ish air yards on a dime, while under pressure, he not incapable of stretching the field as the narrative seems to be with him, granted they don’t do it often but I’ve seen enough at this level and plenty at bama to think it redic to say he can’t throw down field.

I thought you were more in agreement me on Tua but here you say he “easier competition” than jags, Steelers, niners qbs? Not sure I agree with that, actually think he similar to Jimmy g and much better than Ben these days or goldy lox in Jacksonville. I do agree points will be tough to come by vs titans, their d did a number on rams offense also by creating a ton of pressure up the middle, you would think they will be able to work over fish oline. No problem w that under, kinda kicking myself for not doing what I said in Monday night game and playing a alternate under in the 20s!! Big mistake by me!!

Cardinals run defense ranks have kinda fallen off later in the season but they did mostly a great job on Taylor after allowing a 40 yard run on the 1st play, take away all the penalties, several of which were awful calls, and it was really a pretty dominate performance by their d on Xmas. Of course colts were missing majority of their offensive line and don’t have the weapons on the outside of a Dallas (Coop will feast again if they give him the cushion they gave to Pittman last week!!) Same with bears, they could focus on Montgomery with no real threat in passing game, that is the thing I like most about Dallas, they perfectly capable of beating you on ground or thru the air (especially at home where Dak and coop way better). Kinda hoping to see a low number attached to pollard since cards have seemingly gotten gashed on 1 run every week, if pollard gets one hole like those he can take to house and surpass his rush total with 1 carry!! Of course if Zeke gets that hole it be a harmless 15 yarder, lol.

Dallas is so explosive on their dline/pass rush. Think it easily one the scariest units in football right now with everyone healthy. Cards gonna have to get a run game going or Murray will be running for his life, not for big yards!! if they can establish the run it wouldn’t be the worst thing for your under, without Hopkins they not nearly as explosive in the pass game as they need to rely more on ertz to keep chains moving. Seems like a game that outta be played in the low 20s, long as neither team jumps out to a big lead which could screw this all up. The only other concern i have w under is both defenses capable of creating points for their teams.

Oh yeah I agree that Tua can throw downfield, he just doesn‘t do it often and I don‘t think he‘ll need to.

I did not mean „easier competition“ compared to those bums, that‘s a writing mistake on my part. I‘d also put him miles above Trevor and easily above Ben.

Good points about Dallas. Dak and other quarterbacks are more easily able to exit slumps when they don‘t face pressure, which is an obvious obstacle to rhythm. I don‘t think Kyler will have the benefit that Dak did Sunday night

 

[Big daddy naught]

Titans have significant covid issues but possible some could be cleared by gametime. I know Autry, Dupree, Brown, Etc all on list

 

[2daBank]

Titans have significant covid issues but possible some could be cleared by gametime. I know Autry, Dupree, Brown, Etc all on list

So sick of this bs. At least nfl mostly tells us in advance, got smoked with messy st yesterday since they decided to keep it secret half their team wasn’t fucjing playing. Think I even had it (didn’t get tested), my brother tested positive for it few days ago, nobody I knew got this shit when it was supposedly bad, now everyone getting it, and we all vaxed, fucjing worthless!