NBA Picks: Our Best Bets for November 2
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Miami's Defense
Given its recent history, it must be unsurprising to note that Miami's defense is arguably the NBA's best right now.
Through six games, only two opponents of the Heat have managed more than 100 points.
Those two opponents were Indiana, which required overtime to reach 102 points, and Memphis, which managed 103 points in a blowout loss.
Perhaps Miami's most impressive performance came against the star-studded Nets, who mustered 93 points against the Heat in a 13-point defeat.In that game, the Nets suffered an abysmally low offensive rating.
What these stats show is that Heat defenders already have chemistry with each other despite the fact that there were new additions to the team, such as Kyle Lowry.
Moreover, Heat defenders are versatile. Guys like Jimmy Butler are able to switch and to guard players at a variety of positions.
Thirdly, the effort and communication are there. Miami players are willing to try hard on defense, and trying hard is not exactly something that every team's players can claim to do during the regular season.
Dallas' Broken Offense
Dallas seems to me like one of the last teams that could possibly challenge the Heat defense, even if Bam Adebayo is unable to play tonight for a still loaded Heat defensive squad.
The Mavericks have suffered a stark regression in offensive rating relative to last year.
They have one of the NBA's worst offenses in terms of offensive rating, which also explains why they regularly struggle to reach 100 points.
Instead of shooting a lot of threes like last year, the Mavs are posting up more and they've gained a strange affinity for attempting contested mid-range jumpers. The spacing is poor partly as a consequence of this alteration in shot profile.
Against their only two playoff teams faced, Denver and Atlanta, they mustered 75 and 87 points, respectively. This is the kind of low scoring I expect from the Mavs today.
Heat Offense
Given what little the Maverick offense can bring, the Heat offense has very little to accomplish.
Miami does not suffer the same issues with scoring as Dallas. With leading scorer Jimmy Butler's dribble penetration,Tyler Herro's 39.5-percent three-point shooting, and Kyle Lowry's distribution, the Heat will race past Dallas.
Best Bet: Heat ATS (Odds TBA)
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, November 2, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Rematch
In its second game of the season, Utah faced Sacramento. The Jazz only won this game by nine points.
However, this game took place in Sacramento. Tonight's will be in Salt Lake City.
More meaningfully, perhaps, is the fact that Joe Ingles is ready to go tonight for Utah.
In his team's first meeting with Sacramento, Ingles only played six minutes. His presence is crucial, though, for multiple reasons.
For example, Ingles is a highly efficient three-point shooter despite his high shooting volume. This season, Ingles is converting just over 48-percent of his three-point attempts.
Ingles is just one example of an efficient Jazz shooter. Utah scorers suffered some early-season hiccups -- which were largely apparent in Utah's very slow start in its game against Sacramento -- but have since put forth high-scoring outputs.
A stronger start and more complete performance will, with help from guys like Ingles, lead to a more convincing Jazz victory.
Match-Up Comparison
With its increasingly guard-heavy offense -- the Kings have invested heavily in guards in recent drafts -- Sacramento relies heavily on the ball-screen.
The Kings run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the NBA's highest frequency.
This tendency makes Sacramento a salivating matchup for a Jazz defense that allows the fifth-lowest PPP (points per possession) against this play-type.
On the flip side, Sacramento's perimeter defense has been vulnerable against stronger opponents.
The Kings' highest allowed scoring outputs this season came against the top three-point shooting teams that they've faced.
Like Portland and Golden State, the Jazz rank top-eight in three-pointers made per game.
While Jazz three-point shooters gladly punish Sacramento's perimeter defense, Utah's ball-screen defense will stifle the King offense.
Best Bet: Jazz -9 at -105 with BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, November 2, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Miami's Defense
Given its recent history, it must be unsurprising to note that Miami's defense is arguably the NBA's best right now.
Through six games, only two opponents of the Heat have managed more than 100 points.
Those two opponents were Indiana, which required overtime to reach 102 points, and Memphis, which managed 103 points in a blowout loss.
Perhaps Miami's most impressive performance came against the star-studded Nets, who mustered 93 points against the Heat in a 13-point defeat.In that game, the Nets suffered an abysmally low offensive rating.
What these stats show is that Heat defenders already have chemistry with each other despite the fact that there were new additions to the team, such as Kyle Lowry.
Moreover, Heat defenders are versatile. Guys like Jimmy Butler are able to switch and to guard players at a variety of positions.
Thirdly, the effort and communication are there. Miami players are willing to try hard on defense, and trying hard is not exactly something that every team's players can claim to do during the regular season.
Dallas' Broken Offense
Dallas seems to me like one of the last teams that could possibly challenge the Heat defense, even if Bam Adebayo is unable to play tonight for a still loaded Heat defensive squad.
The Mavericks have suffered a stark regression in offensive rating relative to last year.
They have one of the NBA's worst offenses in terms of offensive rating, which also explains why they regularly struggle to reach 100 points.
Instead of shooting a lot of threes like last year, the Mavs are posting up more and they've gained a strange affinity for attempting contested mid-range jumpers. The spacing is poor partly as a consequence of this alteration in shot profile.
Against their only two playoff teams faced, Denver and Atlanta, they mustered 75 and 87 points, respectively. This is the kind of low scoring I expect from the Mavs today.
Heat Offense
Given what little the Maverick offense can bring, the Heat offense has very little to accomplish.
Miami does not suffer the same issues with scoring as Dallas. With leading scorer Jimmy Butler's dribble penetration,Tyler Herro's 39.5-percent three-point shooting, and Kyle Lowry's distribution, the Heat will race past Dallas.
Best Bet: Heat ATS (Odds TBA)
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, November 2, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah
Rematch
In its second game of the season, Utah faced Sacramento. The Jazz only won this game by nine points.
However, this game took place in Sacramento. Tonight's will be in Salt Lake City.
More meaningfully, perhaps, is the fact that Joe Ingles is ready to go tonight for Utah.
In his team's first meeting with Sacramento, Ingles only played six minutes. His presence is crucial, though, for multiple reasons.
For example, Ingles is a highly efficient three-point shooter despite his high shooting volume. This season, Ingles is converting just over 48-percent of his three-point attempts.
Ingles is just one example of an efficient Jazz shooter. Utah scorers suffered some early-season hiccups -- which were largely apparent in Utah's very slow start in its game against Sacramento -- but have since put forth high-scoring outputs.
A stronger start and more complete performance will, with help from guys like Ingles, lead to a more convincing Jazz victory.
Match-Up Comparison
With its increasingly guard-heavy offense -- the Kings have invested heavily in guards in recent drafts -- Sacramento relies heavily on the ball-screen.
The Kings run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler with the NBA's highest frequency.
This tendency makes Sacramento a salivating matchup for a Jazz defense that allows the fifth-lowest PPP (points per possession) against this play-type.
On the flip side, Sacramento's perimeter defense has been vulnerable against stronger opponents.
The Kings' highest allowed scoring outputs this season came against the top three-point shooting teams that they've faced.
Like Portland and Golden State, the Jazz rank top-eight in three-pointers made per game.
While Jazz three-point shooters gladly punish Sacramento's perimeter defense, Utah's ball-screen defense will stifle the King offense.
Best Bet: Jazz -9 at -105 with BetOnline
