MLB Parlay for July 26: A Bet That Pays (+262)
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Miami?
Tonight, Miami starts Pablo Lopez, its third-most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Lopez has been a particularly good bet on the road.
Miami is yielding +2.9 units in his road starts this season.
Lopez's Great Spot
Lopez is in a great spot tonight.
Recency bias would lead -- or rather mislead -- us to go against Lopez because his most recent start was awful.
However, Lopez has a consistent history of bouncing back with a strong performance after collecting the loss in his previous start.
In four starts immediately following a loss, he is 2-0.
His worst start following a loss came when he allowed two earned runs in 6.1 innings in Washington.
He also allowed zero earned runs in seven innings against Colorado, zero earned runs in six innings in Colorado, and zero earned runs in eight innings in San Diego.
Clearly, Lopez is at his best when he is pitching after taking the loss in his last start.
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati starts the ever-unreliable Hunter Greene.
The Reds are yielding -9.1 units in his starts this year, making him his team's least profitable pitcher.
While he has suffered fewer failures during the day, the Reds are 1-9, yielding -8.0 units in his night starts.
Greene's Problems
Greene's poor individual quality contributes to his unreliability.
In particular, location is a major problem for him.
Hence, he walks 3.99 batters per nine innings, gives up a lot of home runs, and as heat maps show, has a perilous tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Bullpen Differential
On top of the significant disparity in starting pitcher quality, there exists another one in bullpen quality.
As measured by FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) Cincinnati has baseball's worst bullpen, and it isn't even close.
Conversely, Miami's ranks top-10 in the category.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Tampa Bay starts reliable lefty Shane McClanahan.
Because of his reliability, McClanahan is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 70.6 percent of his starts overall and in 76.9 percent of his starts in which his team is favored.
McClanahan's reliability is evident in his most recent play.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts, even mastering Boston in Fenway Park.
Location, Location, Location
McClanahan is actually winless in every AL East ballpark besides Baltimore's -- and Tampa Bay's, of course.
He is 2-0 in two career starts in Baltimore.
Overall, he is 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA in five career starts against the O's.
McClanahan vs. Oriole Batters
Tampa Bay's southpaw matches up well against Baltimore given his pitching arsenal.
He throws a fastball, curveball, and changeup.
These are, by far, his three favorite pitches.
Together, they make up nearly 85 percent of his arsenal.
Problematically for the Orioles, they rank 10th-worst in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Spenser Watkins tonight.
Similar to McClanahan, Watkins enjoys superb form.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts.
Watkins vs. Ray Batters
Given the pitches that he likes to throw, Watkins matches up well against Tampa Bay.
Primarily, Watkins throws a fastball, cutter, and slider.
These three pitches make up nearly 85 percent of his arsenal.
Tampa Bay, however, ranks 24th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Expect little, for example, from Ji-Man Choi.
His BA has dropped .19 and his slugging rate has dropped .45 since July 3.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -107 & Rays/Orioles under 8 at -115 at +262 odds with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Miami?
Tonight, Miami starts Pablo Lopez, its third-most profitable pitcher.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Lopez has been a particularly good bet on the road.
Miami is yielding +2.9 units in his road starts this season.
Lopez's Great Spot
Lopez is in a great spot tonight.
Recency bias would lead -- or rather mislead -- us to go against Lopez because his most recent start was awful.
However, Lopez has a consistent history of bouncing back with a strong performance after collecting the loss in his previous start.
In four starts immediately following a loss, he is 2-0.
His worst start following a loss came when he allowed two earned runs in 6.1 innings in Washington.
He also allowed zero earned runs in seven innings against Colorado, zero earned runs in six innings in Colorado, and zero earned runs in eight innings in San Diego.
Clearly, Lopez is at his best when he is pitching after taking the loss in his last start.
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati starts the ever-unreliable Hunter Greene.
The Reds are yielding -9.1 units in his starts this year, making him his team's least profitable pitcher.
While he has suffered fewer failures during the day, the Reds are 1-9, yielding -8.0 units in his night starts.
Greene's Problems
Greene's poor individual quality contributes to his unreliability.
In particular, location is a major problem for him.
Hence, he walks 3.99 batters per nine innings, gives up a lot of home runs, and as heat maps show, has a perilous tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
Bullpen Differential
On top of the significant disparity in starting pitcher quality, there exists another one in bullpen quality.
As measured by FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) Cincinnati has baseball's worst bullpen, and it isn't even close.
Conversely, Miami's ranks top-10 in the category.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, July 26, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for Tampa Bay?
Tampa Bay starts reliable lefty Shane McClanahan.
Because of his reliability, McClanahan is a strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 70.6 percent of his starts overall and in 76.9 percent of his starts in which his team is favored.
McClanahan's reliability is evident in his most recent play.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts, even mastering Boston in Fenway Park.
Location, Location, Location
McClanahan is actually winless in every AL East ballpark besides Baltimore's -- and Tampa Bay's, of course.
He is 2-0 in two career starts in Baltimore.
Overall, he is 4-0 with a 2.30 ERA in five career starts against the O's.
McClanahan vs. Oriole Batters
Tampa Bay's southpaw matches up well against Baltimore given his pitching arsenal.
He throws a fastball, curveball, and changeup.
These are, by far, his three favorite pitches.
Together, they make up nearly 85 percent of his arsenal.
Problematically for the Orioles, they rank 10th-worst in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Baltimore starts Spenser Watkins tonight.
Similar to McClanahan, Watkins enjoys superb form.
He has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last four starts.
Watkins vs. Ray Batters
Given the pitches that he likes to throw, Watkins matches up well against Tampa Bay.
Primarily, Watkins throws a fastball, cutter, and slider.
These three pitches make up nearly 85 percent of his arsenal.
Tampa Bay, however, ranks 24th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Expect little, for example, from Ji-Man Choi.
His BA has dropped .19 and his slugging rate has dropped .45 since July 3.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -107 & Rays/Orioles under 8 at -115 at +262 odds with BetOnline
