Miami -1 @ Minny. What am I missing?

Satyr

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
I know I know. I'm on a break :D. And I am, honestly. I merely staked half a unit today, compared to my usual quota nothing significant. But as any capper I'm keeping my eyes open, and for tomorrow I see Heat as possible winners.

Not any huge revenge or situational angle, but come on. We're talking Wolves here. These guys are just horrid. They've got KG but that's pretty much it. Miami had a HORRID night out in Toronto, who were missing Garbajosa and Bargnani but they're still a cohesive unit, especially at home, in front of their fans.

Miami should pick up their game and win in Minneapolis tomorrow if you ask me, -1 is nothing significant it's a pick em basically. But look at the line. Minny +1 @ 2.00, this line is ready to go off to Minny +2.5 or 3 by gametime tomorrow.

I'm not interested in hedging, especially not such a small, insignificant number, but what I am interested in is getting a good, solid line with the Heat. And that means taking them early.

I would like to hear your thoughts on this one, since I'm worried that my perception is faltered a bit lately, nothing unusual after a big run to start seeing things differently, and perhaps a bit distorted. You can't keep capping consistency high throughout the year, but the art of it is to avoid losing streaks and minimize their effect on your bankroll, which is what I'm doing now.

:shake: come on guys, lemme have it.

watching Pulp Fiction again as we speak, what a great movie. :wacka wacka:
 
I agree. They have to beat Minnesota or they will have an 0-3 road trip which finishes Sunday afternoon @ Detroit who will have revenge on their mind.
 
I will say that if the line is still a PK tomorrow come game time, I'll eat the juice and buy the Wolves.
 
Yes I know they're meeting Detroit but the fact is, it's two nights before the game, and they can't start thinking about the Pistons now. Even if they've reached the playoffs, a lot of it is still out in the open when it comes to climbing the standings and getting an upper hand when the playoffs start, and I admit, picking Miami in Toronto looking at it now was a bad thing.

Never bet against the injuries, BAR said today and that was a classical sucker bet right there, Miami getting the deceiving 3 points, yet they were never into that one. Now they're in a knockdown, and getting this line in Minneapolis?

What is this about? The Western vs Eastern team? Since I don't buy that stuff, look beyond that. This sorry Wolves team lost to Seattle, who were playing without Shuttlesworth. Wolves were up by 19 at half, and were outscored 35-12 to a team that have ended their season some time ago, plus playing without their premier scorer and lacking any true inside presence.

I think Miami goes to Detroit with a win, then we'll see what happens at the Palace, still not looking at that game that hard, with the Pistons still playing Chicago. And playing them hard.
 
This is a HUGE game for Miami. They should be favored here for by 3 for sure. Definately wouldn't touch them on this weak line.
 
come on, you know as much as I do that if no significant injuries occur this line will be -3 by gametime. Why not taking advantage of it now ;).
 
WHy the linesmakers release this so low? They know Miami will get POUNDED after the bad loss at Toronto. Why not just open this at 3.5, get balanced action, and cash on juice?

If anything, I'll be on Minny if the line gets to 3.5 or 4, which I expect.
 
In my opinion, you're giving it too much thought, it doesn't matter why they didn't open it, look at the game itself. What possibly could they know better than us at this point? I don't care about injuries. Wolves are a POOR, POOR team, the only way Utah didn't cover is because they're stuck in sucky mode themselves, but Miami should exploit that.

Of course, I might be completely wrong, but I don't see a reason to back the Wolves here, not even at +4. Also, if I want to take Miami I'd rather take it now than at -3 :D.

:shake:
 
Yeah, c'mon now Believe

If you make your line -3 Miami, and it opens -1 Miami, you hit that

Second guessing is the downfall in betting IMO
 
Terrible bet on Miami. They're not that good. Books are sucking you in on this one. Miami may win but it won't be easy.
 
they're not that good but surely better than these Wolves, it was a HORRID bet to back them in Toronto, not just because of the result and the way they beat them, but looking back at it now, I see I made a mistake.

And I'm not chasing or anything, I don't do that. But Wolves are nowhere near Toronto this season, the depth, the mental toughness, the hard nosed, intensive game.

Plus I know you're VERY eager to put other people's picks down, but you should be careful what you write. Not because you'll hurt my feelings or something, I don't care about that nor do I have problems with people disagreeing with me.

But if you classify something as a TERRIBLE bet, it means you should be keen on taking the other side.
 
I'm not betting on Minnesota period. However, this Heat team has peaked since their winning streak was snapped. All along I kept commenting on how the oddsmakers weren't respecting Miami. For the first dozen games or so the Heat were impressive without Wade. Ever since that bad loss to Orlando the Heat haven't looked the same. There was a reason why Miami was only a 4.5 pt home fave vs. the Sacramento Kings. Just like there is a reason why Miami isn't favored at Minnesota. This game is probably played very close and likely the scoreboard will see saw. I just think banking on the Heat minus Wade and who knows about the rest of their injuries is a dangerous bet night in and night out. That's all I'm saying.

I'm not here to tear apart your bet. In fact I don't care what you bet. I just try to get people to look at the lines the way I do. That doesn't mean I'm going to be right or wrong. It's just that laying chalk or making bets that appear to be easy are rarely the case. Minnesota will have the best player on the floor in Kevin Garnett. There is no question about that.
Plus, I'm not sure Minnesota isn't the better team playing at home. Once again I'm not betting on the Wolves but the Heat have been a dangerous team to bet on ever since they got hammered by Orlando. The air might be out of their balloon.
 
Handy, I expected that downtrend as well, following Wade's injury. And I wrote it several times. But they can win in Minnesota by 7 and get thumped in Detroit 2 days later, and still be in a crisis.

That's what I'm thinking here. Your way of looking at the lines is by no means wrong (in my opinion), but tell me what exactly should the line be here, it's not like Miami can be favored in Minnesota, but they can't be getting the points either. So it looks like a tossup.

But at first sight (I still haven't made any bets), Miami looks like the play, they need to step up soon and stop the bleeding, and it's hard to say they'll do it at the Palace, plus the fact Minnesota are totally in a funk, come on, losing to Seattle after having +19 at half, that's horrendous. How down exactly a team can be to pull something like that. They're mentally done for the season, while the Heat are physically tired, two different things in my book.
 
Satyr,

What you're ignoring is the fact that the Heat are in a funk too and they're playing on the road. I'm not sure how you can make that bet with confidence on either team. Minnesota went into Utah the other night and came to play. If they play tonight like they did the other night in Utah they're going to beat Miami. Mark that down. Miami isn't very good without Wade. I don't give a shit about their first 12 games. I read into the oddsmakers clues. They're the brilliant minds and you can learn an awful lot by understanding the lines they post. That's all I know and that's how often times I make or don't make bets.
 
We all forget that the Heat.... SUCK! they played well beyond their abilities... and guys like eddie jones, kapono, were on fire. Kapono gone and Jones cooling off... they have no one besides Shaq who gives them 25 solid mins max. I think Minny takes out on MIA for blowing that lead to the Sonics
 
Isnt Minny coming off a terrible 4thQ home collapse? IMO Vegas wants Miami $. There are better, easier games to play Friday.

GL bro
 
There is no doubt vegas wants you to bet the Heat. If you don't think vegas knows what peeps are going to bet long before the line is released then you simply have no clue. Peeps would bet Miami tomorrow night at -3 but vegas knows they don't need to give the wise guys 3 points with the Timberwolves.
 
The bet is on Minn if you bet at all. You know Vegas has thought the angle through this is a must wiin for Miami. They know they can suck people in with such a short line. Minn stinks as well but I say they are the bet here. I am not going to bet it so it. GL to whoever chooses to play this lousy game IMO.
 
Stick a fork in the T-wolves season and any talk of them making the playoffs is fools talk IMO.

With respect to the Heat you have to ask yourself whether they want to win the SW division or not. Personally I don't think they care, nor who they face in the playoffs either.

Agree with others in here, there are better games on the card than this one, wouldn't touch it with a barge pole
 
since I'm in a funk, I won't force it and probably leave the whole card alone, not only this game.
Can't ignore opinion of others. Not this time.

:shake:
 
rod_steel said:
With respect to the Heat you have to ask yourself whether they want to win the SW division or not. Personally I don't think they care, nor who they face in the playoffs either.
Click to expand...

Bingo! This is the problem with betting Miami. They don't care who/where they play in the playoffs. They won everywhere last season in the playoffs.
 
I don't know if I would waste my time trying to write up this game. The NBA is all about effort and energy. I'm just not sure the Heat can just show up and win tonight. Perhaps they can but I wouldn't count on it and certainly the oddsmakers don't believe it's a lay up either.

Think before you drink.

good luck

Handy
 
I'm really moosed lately. Instead of making the play I laid off but took Washington who were fucked...well we all know what happened there. Insane scenario. Hitchock wouldn't have directed it like that.

As for Miami, they controlled the game, but it was all in vain as I didn't play it. I should really lay off for a while then come back with my mind refreshed, as this is fucking frustrating.
 
Stay cool Satyr, you are capping correctly, just go with you instincts, cut back on plays and don't overanalyze. I was on a recent cold streak but have since recovered
 
that's exactly what I did, overanalyzed. But it was something I don't do often, somehow felt the downtrend is coming so wanted to be extra careful, but look what it has brought to me :D.

Oh well, we move on. :cheers:
 
Miami is Jekyll and Hyde, you can't trust them to win or lose.

I wouldn't really say that you should cut back, I think April will be a good month for enlightened squares like you. Play the whole card today!
 
:shake: Dont worry Satyr, trust yourself - you got it. When I was a lowly lurker, I noticed your champions league picks, those werent easy picks to make by any means :bow:
 
I'm surprised you weren't on Spurs yesterday. That was a square bet, but also an enlightened one, you normally nail those :-)
 
To be honest there are no square bets or sucker bets if you ask me, there are Ws and Ls, there's yield and there's profit.

I mean tell me why according to Handy Miami was a terrible sucker bet, and Sacramento ML was a good play (he took it)?

Sacto a bunch of clueless mofos playing against the Clippers who are finally stepping up. What does it mean to be "sharp"? To go against any logic just for the sake of it?

Yeah. I'm going to pick the lousiest team on the card night and night out and call myself sharp, go into other people's threads and call them suckers.

I bet "square bets" as you put it, but I also bet dogs unfavored by the public or general consensus among cappers.

However, I don't consider myself to be some expert, a top notch connosseur or anything. I just follow the damn thing and give my view. That's it.
 
I agree with every single word.

When I say square I mean someone who backs the best or undervalued team instead of fading the public. This is a perfectly sound strategy combined with situational capping. That's how BAR and Rod etc. are kicking bookies' asses too.

I know the term "square" is negatively loaded in general, but to me it really isn't. The worst thing is trying to bet as a "sharp", I tried that and it sure didn't work out.
 
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