Mets vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, July 4, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Give Corey Oswalt A Chance
There are two reasons why you might be immediately inclined to dismiss any prospect of success for tonight's Met starter Corey Oswalt. Both of these reasons are bad reasons.
The first bad reason is that Oswalt is pitching out of sheer necessity, in fact a two-fold necessity.
This two-fold necessity consists, firstly, in the fact that the Mets have suffered an unfortunate amount of injuries to their pitching rotation.
No less than five starting pitchers -- plus one reliever with starting experience -- are out due to injury.
Secondly, this is the second-leg of a doubleheader and it is common in these exceptional instances for teams to recall guys from Triple A or to have a 'bullpen day' in order to get through the game without having to utilize the following day's intended starter.
The second bad reason why it might seem easy to deride Oswalt in your mind is that he is typically a Minor Leaguer who only starts occasionally in the MLB.
These spot starters initially appear tricky to break down because one easily loses sight of their development since they rarely surface in front of a larger viewing audience.
In the MLB, Oswalt once suffered a very high ERA and was prone to giving up walks and home runs like an actual professional pitcher is not.
But he has clearly developed since last season
In two starts this season, Oswalt allowed one run in 2.1 innings against Atlanta and zero runs in four innings against Philadelphia.
He allowed a combined one walk in those two starts as well as zero home runs. So his signs of control are now strong.
Oswalt's Repertoire
Oswalt primarily throws a fastball. Right now, he's throwing it with 56-percent frequency, which is pretty consistent with the rate at which he was throwing it last season.
He is so strongly improved this season primarily because his fastball is more effective.
Whereas this pitch yielded a .360 BA and .571 slugging rate last season, this season, batters are hitting .167 and slugging .333 against it.
This year, he has more confidence in his pitches and locates his pitches in the strike zone at a higher rate.
His fastball is no exception as it survives frequent middle-of-the-plate location and is a pitch that batters frequently whiff at.
He also plays his fastball well off of his change-up, which is his second-most frequent pitch. Oswalt also throws a slider.
Oswalt vs. Yankee Batters
Throughout this season, the Yankee lineup has been struggling to produce runs in various stretches.
Specifically in the past seven games, the Yankees have failed to exceed three runs in five of those games.
During this same stretch, they rank just above average in slugging rate against the fastball, Oswalt's favorite pitch, from righties.
Not a lot of Yankee hitters have been producing much power. Giancarlo Stanton, for example, has one extra-base hit since June 18.
Yankees Pitching Plan
Tonight, the Yanks will start Nestor Cortes.
He is a reliever, so he won't last too long today. But he might pitch the bulk of the game.
His longest outing this season was 3.2 innings. He lasted that long twice, allowing one earned run on each occasion.
In seven outings this year, one run was actually the most that Cortes has given up.
Yankee Bullpen vs. Met Lineup
Like the Yankees', the Mets' lineup has been underwhelming for much of the most recent history.
Since June 25, the Mets have scored from one to four runs and no more than four.
So there isn't something recent that one can point to as a basis for expecting the Mets to score much, especially considering that they face, tonight, the fourth-best bullpen in terms of ERA.
The Verdict
Seeing two lesser-known pitchers may compel you to expect both lineups to have a strong evening, but pitching details, match-up considerations, and considerations about lineup form should cause you to expect few runs tonight.
Best Bet: Under (Odds TBA)
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Sunday, July 4, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Give Corey Oswalt A Chance
There are two reasons why you might be immediately inclined to dismiss any prospect of success for tonight's Met starter Corey Oswalt. Both of these reasons are bad reasons.
The first bad reason is that Oswalt is pitching out of sheer necessity, in fact a two-fold necessity.
This two-fold necessity consists, firstly, in the fact that the Mets have suffered an unfortunate amount of injuries to their pitching rotation.
No less than five starting pitchers -- plus one reliever with starting experience -- are out due to injury.
Secondly, this is the second-leg of a doubleheader and it is common in these exceptional instances for teams to recall guys from Triple A or to have a 'bullpen day' in order to get through the game without having to utilize the following day's intended starter.
The second bad reason why it might seem easy to deride Oswalt in your mind is that he is typically a Minor Leaguer who only starts occasionally in the MLB.
These spot starters initially appear tricky to break down because one easily loses sight of their development since they rarely surface in front of a larger viewing audience.
In the MLB, Oswalt once suffered a very high ERA and was prone to giving up walks and home runs like an actual professional pitcher is not.
But he has clearly developed since last season
In two starts this season, Oswalt allowed one run in 2.1 innings against Atlanta and zero runs in four innings against Philadelphia.
He allowed a combined one walk in those two starts as well as zero home runs. So his signs of control are now strong.
Oswalt's Repertoire
Oswalt primarily throws a fastball. Right now, he's throwing it with 56-percent frequency, which is pretty consistent with the rate at which he was throwing it last season.
He is so strongly improved this season primarily because his fastball is more effective.
Whereas this pitch yielded a .360 BA and .571 slugging rate last season, this season, batters are hitting .167 and slugging .333 against it.
This year, he has more confidence in his pitches and locates his pitches in the strike zone at a higher rate.
His fastball is no exception as it survives frequent middle-of-the-plate location and is a pitch that batters frequently whiff at.
He also plays his fastball well off of his change-up, which is his second-most frequent pitch. Oswalt also throws a slider.
Oswalt vs. Yankee Batters
Throughout this season, the Yankee lineup has been struggling to produce runs in various stretches.
Specifically in the past seven games, the Yankees have failed to exceed three runs in five of those games.
During this same stretch, they rank just above average in slugging rate against the fastball, Oswalt's favorite pitch, from righties.
Not a lot of Yankee hitters have been producing much power. Giancarlo Stanton, for example, has one extra-base hit since June 18.
Yankees Pitching Plan
Tonight, the Yanks will start Nestor Cortes.
He is a reliever, so he won't last too long today. But he might pitch the bulk of the game.
His longest outing this season was 3.2 innings. He lasted that long twice, allowing one earned run on each occasion.
In seven outings this year, one run was actually the most that Cortes has given up.
Yankee Bullpen vs. Met Lineup
Like the Yankees', the Mets' lineup has been underwhelming for much of the most recent history.
Since June 25, the Mets have scored from one to four runs and no more than four.
So there isn't something recent that one can point to as a basis for expecting the Mets to score much, especially considering that they face, tonight, the fourth-best bullpen in terms of ERA.
The Verdict
Seeing two lesser-known pitchers may compel you to expect both lineups to have a strong evening, but pitching details, match-up considerations, and considerations about lineup form should cause you to expect few runs tonight.
Best Bet: Under (Odds TBA)
