Join the Masses Betting on the Yankees Against the Mets
The Subway Series between the Yanks and Mets continues tonight at 7:15 ET. The Yanks are a justifiably popular choice to beat the Mets, who haven’t won at home since May 21
New York Yankees (41-18) at New York Mets (27-33)
MLB Pick: Yankees F5 RL
Steven Matz (2-4, 3.42 ERA) is 1-7 in his last eight home decisions. His home ERA is 4.75, compared to 1.61 away and this disparity is consistent throughout his career, where his home ERA is 4.42, compared to 3.38 away. In 2018, opponents are slugging .220 higher against him at home and have hit seven more homers in only eight more innings pitched.
Matz relies on a high-velocity (92-95 mph) sinker with about 60% frequency. He doesn’t typically aim for the knees as one would expect of a ground-ball inducing sinker thrower, but likes to elevate his sinkers. It’s impossible to evaluate Matz based on his overall statistics. Overall, opponents are slugging .376 against his sinker. But in four of his five home games, opponents slugged over .440 against it.
The Brewers, for example, slugged .833 against his sinker despite being notoriously weak against southpaws and the Rockies slugged .444 against it. They rank 15th and 16th respectively against the sinker with Matz’ average velo of 92-96 mph thrown by lefties. Those rankings account for their performance against Matz. Nevertheless, the Yanks aren’t far behind, ranking 20th in the category. The Yanks rank poorly in this category because of the tough left-handed sinker-throwers they’ve faced. In the past month, they’ve dealt with Houston's Dallas Keuchel, Texas’ Cole Hamels, the Angels’ Andrew Heaney, Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez, Kansas City’s Eric Skoglund and Oakland’s Brett Anderson. They slammed only Skoglund and Anderson and struggled versus the rest. Skoglund and Anderson are the only two whose sinker is consistently poor enough to be yielding an opposing slugging percentage above .500. Likewise, Matz is yielding a .547 slugging percentage against his sinker at home.
When the Yanks faced Matz in August in Citi Field, Matz took the loss, yielding six earned runs in 3.1 innings. The Yanks slugged .400 against his sinker. Overall, they rank first against southpaw pitchers overall and second in the past week. They’re yielding +6.9 units against southpaws on the season. Watch for former division rival Giancarlo Stanton, who is 4-for-10 with two homers against Matz.
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Domingo German (0-4, 5.44 ERA) counters for the Yanks. German relies primarily on a power curveball. It’s been his most frequent pitch in all his starts and relief appearances before except his first. Despite its relatively high velocity, it arrives much slower than his fastball, thereby creating a significant velocity differential that throws batters off. It’s his favorite whiff pitch and his most effective pitch. Opponents are batting .172 against it.
German’s ERA is inflated because he didn’t begin starting games until May 6. Two disastrous performances—against Oakland and Texas—caused his ERA to balloon. The key for German is to induce opposing batters to swing outside the zone so that they, in the best scenario, make weak contact with his pitches—particularly his fastball, which opponents are slugging well when it lands in the zone, which it tends not to do, and his curveball. Of the opponents he faced as a starting pitcher, Oakland and Texas did this the least. They are very good at maintaining a low outside-swing percentage, ranking in the top ten in the category. German succeeded against the other lineups that he faced, yielding a 4.00 or lower FIP against them. They all rank in the bottom-ten in outside-swing percentage. The Mets rank 24th in the category. Moreover, against German’s favorite pitch, the curveball, at his average velo of 80-84 mph., thrown by righties, the Mets rank 28th in slugging.
The Mets, who are still missing the likes of Yoenis Cespedes and more to injury, don’t have any home advantage, where they are yielding -12.9 units. They have lost seven consecutive home games, averaging 1.1 runs per game. The Yanks will prolong their woes tonight.
The Subway Series between the Yanks and Mets continues tonight at 7:15 ET. The Yanks are a justifiably popular choice to beat the Mets, who haven’t won at home since May 21
New York Yankees (41-18) at New York Mets (27-33)
MLB Pick: Yankees F5 RL
Steven Matz (2-4, 3.42 ERA) is 1-7 in his last eight home decisions. His home ERA is 4.75, compared to 1.61 away and this disparity is consistent throughout his career, where his home ERA is 4.42, compared to 3.38 away. In 2018, opponents are slugging .220 higher against him at home and have hit seven more homers in only eight more innings pitched.
Matz relies on a high-velocity (92-95 mph) sinker with about 60% frequency. He doesn’t typically aim for the knees as one would expect of a ground-ball inducing sinker thrower, but likes to elevate his sinkers. It’s impossible to evaluate Matz based on his overall statistics. Overall, opponents are slugging .376 against his sinker. But in four of his five home games, opponents slugged over .440 against it.
The Brewers, for example, slugged .833 against his sinker despite being notoriously weak against southpaws and the Rockies slugged .444 against it. They rank 15th and 16th respectively against the sinker with Matz’ average velo of 92-96 mph thrown by lefties. Those rankings account for their performance against Matz. Nevertheless, the Yanks aren’t far behind, ranking 20th in the category. The Yanks rank poorly in this category because of the tough left-handed sinker-throwers they’ve faced. In the past month, they’ve dealt with Houston's Dallas Keuchel, Texas’ Cole Hamels, the Angels’ Andrew Heaney, Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez, Kansas City’s Eric Skoglund and Oakland’s Brett Anderson. They slammed only Skoglund and Anderson and struggled versus the rest. Skoglund and Anderson are the only two whose sinker is consistently poor enough to be yielding an opposing slugging percentage above .500. Likewise, Matz is yielding a .547 slugging percentage against his sinker at home.
When the Yanks faced Matz in August in Citi Field, Matz took the loss, yielding six earned runs in 3.1 innings. The Yanks slugged .400 against his sinker. Overall, they rank first against southpaw pitchers overall and second in the past week. They’re yielding +6.9 units against southpaws on the season. Watch for former division rival Giancarlo Stanton, who is 4-for-10 with two homers against Matz.
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Domingo German (0-4, 5.44 ERA) counters for the Yanks. German relies primarily on a power curveball. It’s been his most frequent pitch in all his starts and relief appearances before except his first. Despite its relatively high velocity, it arrives much slower than his fastball, thereby creating a significant velocity differential that throws batters off. It’s his favorite whiff pitch and his most effective pitch. Opponents are batting .172 against it.
German’s ERA is inflated because he didn’t begin starting games until May 6. Two disastrous performances—against Oakland and Texas—caused his ERA to balloon. The key for German is to induce opposing batters to swing outside the zone so that they, in the best scenario, make weak contact with his pitches—particularly his fastball, which opponents are slugging well when it lands in the zone, which it tends not to do, and his curveball. Of the opponents he faced as a starting pitcher, Oakland and Texas did this the least. They are very good at maintaining a low outside-swing percentage, ranking in the top ten in the category. German succeeded against the other lineups that he faced, yielding a 4.00 or lower FIP against them. They all rank in the bottom-ten in outside-swing percentage. The Mets rank 24th in the category. Moreover, against German’s favorite pitch, the curveball, at his average velo of 80-84 mph., thrown by righties, the Mets rank 28th in slugging.
The Mets, who are still missing the likes of Yoenis Cespedes and more to injury, don’t have any home advantage, where they are yielding -12.9 units. They have lost seven consecutive home games, averaging 1.1 runs per game. The Yanks will prolong their woes tonight.
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