MLB Postseason Best Bet for October 6: The Phillies Will Bounce Back Today
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
New York's Starter Today
Luis Severino starts for the Mets today in Game 2.
Severino enters today's contest in diminished form, having yielded a 4.50 ERA or worse in each of his last four starts.
Two of those starts came against the Phillies.
While both lineups can boast of having recently faced the opposing starting pitcher, Philadelphia's lineup has had greater recent success against Severino than New York's has had against Philadelphia's starter.
Among other problems that he's having, Severino has proven rather susceptible to surrendering home runs.
Severino's Diminished Capacities
Severino is not the pitcher that he used to be.
His worsened yearly ERAs attest to that.
When he doesn't register the high strikeout totals that he used to, his opposing batters are putting balls in play more often, and bad things are happening.
He used to rely extensively on a slider that had a lot of spin on it and induced batters to whiff at a high rate.
Instead of a slider that opposing batters felt fortunate just to make contact with, he relies on various vulnerable pitches, including a vastly more vulnerable version of a slider.
One of his most problematic pitches is his sinker, which is his second-most frequent pitch and which yields a .278 BA and .414 slugging rate.
Matchup Details
In descending order of frequency, Severino throws a fastball, sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup, and slider.
A Philadelphia team that ranks seventh with a .428 slugging rate against these pitches from righties matches up well against Severino.
Watch out, among others, for Kyle Schwarber.
Schwarber hit a home run in Game 1 of this series, and he's 3-for-10 with two doubles in his career facing Severino.
Philadelphia's Starter Today
Philadelphia starts Cristopher Sanchez for Game 2 today.
The lefty throws primarily a sinker, changeup, and slider.
Sanchez thrives primarily by changing pace and changing location.
Heat maps illustrate his ability to command his pitches well by distributing them evenly along both sides of the plate.
He'll change locations especially by burying his slider or changeup after he elevates his sinker higher in the zone.
Moreover, his slider and changeup both average around ten fewer mph fewer than his sinker.
So, while he'll alter the batter's eye level by locating his different pitches differently, he'll also keep the batter off-balance by coming at him with pitches that average disparate velocities.
Home and Away
Sanchez is reliable at home.
Whereas his road ERA is 5.02, he boasts a 2.21 ERA at home.
In front of the Philly faithful, he's held the toughest lineups in check, even those lineups that match up well against him on paper.
He held the mighty Dodgers, for example, to two earned runs in six innings in Philadelphia.
His success at home has also extended to the opponent that he'll face today.
A few weeks ago, he limited the Mets to one run in seven innings in Philly.
Whereas Sanchez is a great bet at home, Severino has struggled on the road, where his ERA is 5.00 compared to 2.96 at home.
Location evidently makes a substantial difference in this matchup.
Bullpens
No matter what happened in Game 1, Philadelphia does have the bullpen pieces to secure the lead that it will have in Game 2.
Before yesterday's catastrophe, Matt Strahm had proven almost unhittable for Mets batters.
Jeff Hoffman, likewise, had been strong against the Mets.
One can only expect these guys, given the low ERA they yielded in the entire regular season, to bounce back.
There is also the likes of fellow effective reliever Orion Kerkering to support them.
Overall, compared to New York's, it is Philadelphia that, as measured by ERA, has had the stronger bullpen this season.
The Situation
Philadelphia is especially reliable today since it lost yesterday.
The Phillies are in a great bounce-back spot.
Since the start of August, they are 6-0 at home when they lost their most recent home game.
Takeaway
Playing at home, Philadelphia is going to bounce back in order to even the series.
The Phillies have a starting pitcher in Sanchez who loves pitching in Philly regardless of who he faces.
Their normally strong bullpen will secure the lead that their lineup, feasting on Severino and New York's relievers, will procure.
Best Bet: Phillies RL (-1.5) at +137 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia
New York's Starter Today
Luis Severino starts for the Mets today in Game 2.
Severino enters today's contest in diminished form, having yielded a 4.50 ERA or worse in each of his last four starts.
Two of those starts came against the Phillies.
While both lineups can boast of having recently faced the opposing starting pitcher, Philadelphia's lineup has had greater recent success against Severino than New York's has had against Philadelphia's starter.
Among other problems that he's having, Severino has proven rather susceptible to surrendering home runs.
Severino's Diminished Capacities
Severino is not the pitcher that he used to be.
His worsened yearly ERAs attest to that.
When he doesn't register the high strikeout totals that he used to, his opposing batters are putting balls in play more often, and bad things are happening.
He used to rely extensively on a slider that had a lot of spin on it and induced batters to whiff at a high rate.
Instead of a slider that opposing batters felt fortunate just to make contact with, he relies on various vulnerable pitches, including a vastly more vulnerable version of a slider.
One of his most problematic pitches is his sinker, which is his second-most frequent pitch and which yields a .278 BA and .414 slugging rate.
Matchup Details
In descending order of frequency, Severino throws a fastball, sinker, sweeper, cutter, changeup, and slider.
A Philadelphia team that ranks seventh with a .428 slugging rate against these pitches from righties matches up well against Severino.
Watch out, among others, for Kyle Schwarber.
Schwarber hit a home run in Game 1 of this series, and he's 3-for-10 with two doubles in his career facing Severino.
Philadelphia's Starter Today
Philadelphia starts Cristopher Sanchez for Game 2 today.
The lefty throws primarily a sinker, changeup, and slider.
Sanchez thrives primarily by changing pace and changing location.
Heat maps illustrate his ability to command his pitches well by distributing them evenly along both sides of the plate.
He'll change locations especially by burying his slider or changeup after he elevates his sinker higher in the zone.
Moreover, his slider and changeup both average around ten fewer mph fewer than his sinker.
So, while he'll alter the batter's eye level by locating his different pitches differently, he'll also keep the batter off-balance by coming at him with pitches that average disparate velocities.
Home and Away
Sanchez is reliable at home.
Whereas his road ERA is 5.02, he boasts a 2.21 ERA at home.
In front of the Philly faithful, he's held the toughest lineups in check, even those lineups that match up well against him on paper.
He held the mighty Dodgers, for example, to two earned runs in six innings in Philadelphia.
His success at home has also extended to the opponent that he'll face today.
A few weeks ago, he limited the Mets to one run in seven innings in Philly.
Whereas Sanchez is a great bet at home, Severino has struggled on the road, where his ERA is 5.00 compared to 2.96 at home.
Location evidently makes a substantial difference in this matchup.
Bullpens
No matter what happened in Game 1, Philadelphia does have the bullpen pieces to secure the lead that it will have in Game 2.
Before yesterday's catastrophe, Matt Strahm had proven almost unhittable for Mets batters.
Jeff Hoffman, likewise, had been strong against the Mets.
One can only expect these guys, given the low ERA they yielded in the entire regular season, to bounce back.
There is also the likes of fellow effective reliever Orion Kerkering to support them.
Overall, compared to New York's, it is Philadelphia that, as measured by ERA, has had the stronger bullpen this season.
The Situation
Philadelphia is especially reliable today since it lost yesterday.
The Phillies are in a great bounce-back spot.
Since the start of August, they are 6-0 at home when they lost their most recent home game.
Takeaway
Playing at home, Philadelphia is going to bounce back in order to even the series.
The Phillies have a starting pitcher in Sanchez who loves pitching in Philly regardless of who he faces.
Their normally strong bullpen will secure the lead that their lineup, feasting on Severino and New York's relievers, will procure.
Best Bet: Phillies RL (-1.5) at +137 with BetOnline
