Los Angeles’ Baseball Gang Will Show No Mercy on Mets
The Mets conclude a three-game home series against the Dodgers on Sunday at 1:10 ET. Can the Mets salvage a rare win?
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
Last week, the Mets strung a few consecutive wins together, so I thought that they might have rediscovered the mojo from their early-season success. But alas, they have only one more win in all of June. Despite that magical start to their season, the Mets are costing MLB bettors 10.8 units.
Whereas Jacob deGrom only has five wins for the Mets despite a sub-two ERA because his lineup is so inept, Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60 ERA) only has two wins because of his poor pitching quality. In his first season as a Met, Vargas’ ERA is up 4.44 from last season. He’s walking more batters and allowing nearly twice as many homers per nine innings. Vargas relies primarily on a sinker-change-up combo. His change-up is his most famous pitch. In his last two seasons, opponents batted under .200 against it. This season, they are batting .327 against it. It lacks the vertical movement that it once possessed, so it isn’t as elusive. Most importantly, he’s having significant difficulty with its location. Last season, he loved to keep his change-up down and away. This season, he’s finding the lowest row of the strike zone with 17% lower frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his change-up over the heart of the plate with two percent greater frequency. In all five spots within the middle row of the strike zone, he’s placing his change-up with at least four percent frequency. Last season, there were only two such spots.
In Vargas’ worst games this season, his main two pitches, the sinker and change-up, got slammed. The Padres, D-Backs and Brewers achieved combined five homers and 18 runs against him, producing a slugging percentage of at least 1.000 against the sinker or change-up. He yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 6 against each of those teams. Those three teams rank in the top seven in slugging against the sinker and change-up from lefties. Conversely, Vargas succeeded against Baltimore and Miami, which rank in the bottom six in the category. Overall, the Dodgers rank in-between. But, in June, they are one of the stronger teams against those pitches, ranking seventh in the category, right below Milwaukee and Arizona and just ahead of San Diego.
Look out for Matt Kemp, who is slugging .654 against southpaws. Max Muncy is slugging .676 in day games.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KQTWeG2uHzw" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA) counters for the Dodgers. He’s past his finger issues, having shut out the Cubs over six innings in his first post-DL start. Hill relies on a fastball, curveball combo. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. He tends to keep it elevated, which makes batters want to swing at it more because high curveballs tend to be much more hittable than low ones. His curve's significant vertical and horizontal movement makes it loop deceptively and elusively in front of the batter.
Hill has tended to struggle with his two favorite pitches in his worst games. Arizona slammed him twice, achieving a slugging percentage over .700 against his fastball both times and his curveball once. Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from lefties. Conversely, the Mets rank 23rd, just two spots of where the Cubs rank in June. The Mets seem to be enjoying progression, ranking second in this category in June. But a third of the fastballs and curveballs that they have faced from lefties in June came in very hitters-friendly Coors Field, where they achieved a .920 slugging, largely thanks to Colorado’s unbelievably bad bullpen. At home in June, the Mets rank second-to-last in the category.
The Mets boast the fifth-worst bullpen, which can only hurt them further, especially as Vargas, who has yet to make it past five innings in 2018, will likely constrain the bullpen to throw at least four innings.
The Mets conclude a three-game home series against the Dodgers on Sunday at 1:10 ET. Can the Mets salvage a rare win?
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
Last week, the Mets strung a few consecutive wins together, so I thought that they might have rediscovered the mojo from their early-season success. But alas, they have only one more win in all of June. Despite that magical start to their season, the Mets are costing MLB bettors 10.8 units.
Whereas Jacob deGrom only has five wins for the Mets despite a sub-two ERA because his lineup is so inept, Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60 ERA) only has two wins because of his poor pitching quality. In his first season as a Met, Vargas’ ERA is up 4.44 from last season. He’s walking more batters and allowing nearly twice as many homers per nine innings. Vargas relies primarily on a sinker-change-up combo. His change-up is his most famous pitch. In his last two seasons, opponents batted under .200 against it. This season, they are batting .327 against it. It lacks the vertical movement that it once possessed, so it isn’t as elusive. Most importantly, he’s having significant difficulty with its location. Last season, he loved to keep his change-up down and away. This season, he’s finding the lowest row of the strike zone with 17% lower frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his change-up over the heart of the plate with two percent greater frequency. In all five spots within the middle row of the strike zone, he’s placing his change-up with at least four percent frequency. Last season, there were only two such spots.
In Vargas’ worst games this season, his main two pitches, the sinker and change-up, got slammed. The Padres, D-Backs and Brewers achieved combined five homers and 18 runs against him, producing a slugging percentage of at least 1.000 against the sinker or change-up. He yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 6 against each of those teams. Those three teams rank in the top seven in slugging against the sinker and change-up from lefties. Conversely, Vargas succeeded against Baltimore and Miami, which rank in the bottom six in the category. Overall, the Dodgers rank in-between. But, in June, they are one of the stronger teams against those pitches, ranking seventh in the category, right below Milwaukee and Arizona and just ahead of San Diego.
Look out for Matt Kemp, who is slugging .654 against southpaws. Max Muncy is slugging .676 in day games.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KQTWeG2uHzw" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA) counters for the Dodgers. He’s past his finger issues, having shut out the Cubs over six innings in his first post-DL start. Hill relies on a fastball, curveball combo. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. He tends to keep it elevated, which makes batters want to swing at it more because high curveballs tend to be much more hittable than low ones. His curve's significant vertical and horizontal movement makes it loop deceptively and elusively in front of the batter.
Hill has tended to struggle with his two favorite pitches in his worst games. Arizona slammed him twice, achieving a slugging percentage over .700 against his fastball both times and his curveball once. Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from lefties. Conversely, the Mets rank 23rd, just two spots of where the Cubs rank in June. The Mets seem to be enjoying progression, ranking second in this category in June. But a third of the fastballs and curveballs that they have faced from lefties in June came in very hitters-friendly Coors Field, where they achieved a .920 slugging, largely thanks to Colorado’s unbelievably bad bullpen. At home in June, the Mets rank second-to-last in the category.
The Mets boast the fifth-worst bullpen, which can only hurt them further, especially as Vargas, who has yet to make it past five innings in 2018, will likely constrain the bullpen to throw at least four innings.
