Mets vs Dodgers Preview Article (Sunday)

VirginiaCavs

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Los Angeles’ Baseball Gang Will Show No Mercy on Mets

The Mets conclude a three-game home series against the Dodgers on Sunday at 1:10 ET. Can the Mets salvage a rare win?

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets




MLB Pick: Dodgers RL




Last week, the Mets strung a few consecutive wins together, so I thought that they might have rediscovered the mojo from their early-season success. But alas, they have only one more win in all of June. Despite that magical start to their season, the Mets are costing MLB bettors 10.8 units.

Whereas Jacob deGrom only has five wins for the Mets despite a sub-two ERA because his lineup is so inept, Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60 ERA) only has two wins because of his poor pitching quality. In his first season as a Met, Vargas’ ERA is up 4.44 from last season. He’s walking more batters and allowing nearly twice as many homers per nine innings. Vargas relies primarily on a sinker-change-up combo. His change-up is his most famous pitch. In his last two seasons, opponents batted under .200 against it. This season, they are batting .327 against it. It lacks the vertical movement that it once possessed, so it isn’t as elusive. Most importantly, he’s having significant difficulty with its location. Last season, he loved to keep his change-up down and away. This season, he’s finding the lowest row of the strike zone with 17% lower frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his change-up over the heart of the plate with two percent greater frequency. In all five spots within the middle row of the strike zone, he’s placing his change-up with at least four percent frequency. Last season, there were only two such spots.

In Vargas’ worst games this season, his main two pitches, the sinker and change-up, got slammed. The Padres, D-Backs and Brewers achieved combined five homers and 18 runs against him, producing a slugging percentage of at least 1.000 against the sinker or change-up. He yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 6 against each of those teams. Those three teams rank in the top seven in slugging against the sinker and change-up from lefties. Conversely, Vargas succeeded against Baltimore and Miami, which rank in the bottom six in the category. Overall, the Dodgers rank in-between. But, in June, they are one of the stronger teams against those pitches, ranking seventh in the category, right below Milwaukee and Arizona and just ahead of San Diego.

Look out for Matt Kemp, who is slugging .654 against southpaws. Max Muncy is slugging .676 in day games.



<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KQTWeG2uHzw" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>



Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA) counters for the Dodgers. He’s past his finger issues, having shut out the Cubs over six innings in his first post-DL start. Hill relies on a fastball, curveball combo. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. He tends to keep it elevated, which makes batters want to swing at it more because high curveballs tend to be much more hittable than low ones. His curve's significant vertical and horizontal movement makes it loop deceptively and elusively in front of the batter.

Hill has tended to struggle with his two favorite pitches in his worst games. Arizona slammed him twice, achieving a slugging percentage over .700 against his fastball both times and his curveball once. Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from lefties. Conversely, the Mets rank 23rd, just two spots of where the Cubs rank in June. The Mets seem to be enjoying progression, ranking second in this category in June. But a third of the fastballs and curveballs that they have faced from lefties in June came in very hitters-friendly Coors Field, where they achieved a .920 slugging, largely thanks to Colorado’s unbelievably bad bullpen. At home in June, the Mets rank second-to-last in the category.

The Mets boast the fifth-worst bullpen, which can only hurt them further, especially as Vargas, who has yet to make it past five innings in 2018, will likely constrain the bullpen to throw at least four innings.
 
On Sunday and Monday games, I am no longer allowed to post first-five innings plays. The reasoning from my editors was that they get posted early so readers will see the article but not be able to bet on the game yet since the 1H line won't be out yet. I'll say here when I really just want 1H. Can't say that yet for this game because I'll have to wait until tomorrow's (tonight's) game is over to look at bullpen usage. Obviously like the 1H RL here as that constitutes pretty much all of my analysis. Altho I wonder how chalky it will be.
 
Does LA even still have a gang problem? Maybe our friend Bee is a tough gangster. O well I like my title lol
 
Los Angeles’ Baseball Gang Will Show No Mercy on Mets

The Mets conclude a three-game home series against the Dodgers on Sunday at 1:10 ET. Can the Mets salvage a rare win?

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets




MLB Pick: Dodgers RL




Last week, the Mets strung a few consecutive wins together, so I thought that they might have rediscovered the mojo from their early-season success. But alas, they have only one more win in all of June. Despite that magical start to their season, the Mets are costing MLB bettors 10.8 units.

Whereas Jacob deGrom only has five wins for the Mets despite a sub-two ERA because his lineup is so inept, Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60 ERA) only has two wins because of his poor pitching quality. In his first season as a Met, Vargas’ ERA is up 4.44 from last season. He’s walking more batters and allowing nearly twice as many homers per nine innings. Vargas relies primarily on a sinker-change-up combo. His change-up is his most famous pitch. In his last two seasons, opponents batted under .200 against it. This season, they are batting .327 against it. It lacks the vertical movement that it once possessed, so it isn’t as elusive. Most importantly, he’s having significant difficulty with its location. Last season, he loved to keep his change-up down and away. This season, he’s finding the lowest row of the strike zone with 17% lower frequency. Instead, he’s leaving his change-up over the heart of the plate with two percent greater frequency. In all five spots within the middle row of the strike zone, he’s placing his change-up with at least four percent frequency. Last season, there were only two such spots.

In Vargas’ worst games this season, his main two pitches, the sinker and change-up, got slammed. The Padres, D-Backs and Brewers achieved combined five homers and 18 runs against him, producing a slugging percentage of at least 1.000 against the sinker or change-up. He yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 6 against each of those teams. Those three teams rank in the top seven in slugging against the sinker and change-up from lefties. Conversely, Vargas succeeded against Baltimore and Miami, which rank in the bottom six in the category. Overall, the Dodgers rank in-between. But, in June, they are one of the stronger teams against those pitches, ranking seventh in the category, right below Milwaukee and Arizona and just ahead of San Diego.

Look out for Matt Kemp, who is slugging .654 against southpaws. Max Muncy is slugging .676 in day games.



<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KQTWeG2uHzw" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>



Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA) counters for the Dodgers. He’s past his finger issues, having shut out the Cubs over six innings in his first post-DL start. Hill relies on a fastball, curveball combo. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. He tends to keep it elevated, which makes batters want to swing at it more because high curveballs tend to be much more hittable than low ones. His curve's significant vertical and horizontal movement makes it loop deceptively and elusively in front of the batter.

Hill has tended to struggle with his two favorite pitches in his worst games. Arizona slammed him twice, achieving a slugging percentage over .700 against his fastball both times and his curveball once. Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from lefties. Conversely, the Mets rank 23rd, just two spots of where the Cubs rank in June. The Mets seem to be enjoying progression, ranking second in this category in June. But a third of the fastballs and curveballs that they have faced from lefties in June came in very hitters-friendly Coors Field, where they achieved a .920 slugging, largely thanks to Colorado’s unbelievably bad bullpen. At home in June, the Mets rank second-to-last in the category.

The Mets boast the fifth-worst bullpen, which can only hurt them further, especially as Vargas, who has yet to make it past five innings in 2018, will likely constrain the bullpen to throw at least four innings.

Hope you took this one on action and not listed pitchers. Vargas is out. Mets put him on DL. No starter named yet but maybe Lugo (not sure when he last pitched), or Flexen, who I think threw out of pen in Colorado series. Whoever it is dodgers should feast lol
 
Hope you took this one on action and not listed pitchers. Vargas is out. Mets put him on DL. No starter named yet but maybe Lugo (not sure when he last pitched), or Flexen, who I think threw out of pen in Colorado series. Whoever it is dodgers should feast lol

For fuck sakes
 
That’s the only problem doing them so early. Can’t predict injuries and lineup changes. Dodgers still the right side tomorrow. Mets pen will likely see more work with a spot starter in there. Lugo only threw 3 innings at Colorado but would be on short rest so they might go w Flexen or someone else.
 
That’s the only problem doing them so early. Can’t predict injuries and lineup changes. Dodgers still the right side tomorrow. Mets pen will likely see more work with a spot starter in there. Lugo only threw 3 innings at Colorado but would be on short rest so they might go w Flexen or someone else.

Good. Well then. Staying with the Dodgers ey
 
Rich Hill (1-2, 4.99 ERA), who is scheduled to make his second start since coming off the disabled list last Tuesday, when he pitched against the Chicago Cubs.
Hill, who missed a month with a blister on his left middle finger, didn't factor into the decision after allowing three hits over six scoreless innings in Los Angeles' 2-1, 10-inning loss.
Hill is 1-2 with an 8.00 ERA in six career games (four starts) against the Mets. Neither Flexen nor Peterson has ever faced the Dodgers.
Right-hander Chris Flexen will be recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to replace Vargas on the active roster and is a candidate to start.
The second-highest ERA in Mets history belongs to Flexen, who has an 11.57 ERA in two appearances this season and an 8.05 ERA in 16 games (nine starts) dating back to last season. Flexen last pitched Thursday, when he got the final out of the Mets' 4-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies before being optioned to Las Vegas.
Another possibility to draw the start or to pitch extended innings in relief is rookie Tim Peterson.
He last pitched Thursday, when he tossed 1 1/3 perfect innings against the Rockies and has a 1.17 ERA in five games. The only other Mets reliever to not pitch Friday or Saturday is closer Jeurys Familia.
 
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