Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 6 Best Bet: The Dodgers Seal The Deal
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 8:08 p.m. ET in Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
New York's Starter Tonight
Sean Manaea starts for the Mets tonight.
If you look at Manaea's last start, in which he allowed two earned runs to the Dodgers, then you might be tempted to trust him to perform well tonight.
However, the Dodgers have proven to be a team that commonly needs losses to jolt them into elevating their performance.
Their dominance in the NLDS, which began after they fell behind 2-1 in the series to San Diego, provides evidence of my point.
When they faced Manaea, they were coming off a 9-0 win that gave them a 1-0 lead in the NLCS.
I don't believe, in sum, that they were playing their best when they were facing Manaea.
After they lost to him, they indeed returned to their dominant ways.
They won their next two games against the Mets by a combined score of 18-2.
Tonight, Manaea catches the Dodgers in a bad spot because they are coming off a blowout loss.
Los Angeles will be fueled by that defeat.
Dating to the regular season, the Dodgers are on a 6-1 run in games that immediately follow a loss. Four of those six wins came by multiple runs.
Matchup Specifics
I also like the Dodgers tonight because they match up well against New York's left-handed starter given what he throws.
Manaea's favorite pitches are, in descending order of frequency, a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seam fastball, cutter, and slider.
Los Angeles ranks first, by far, with a .467 slugging rate against those pitches from lefties.
Key Dodgers Batters
The Dodgers have collected a lot of experience against Manaea, who used to pitch for a different team in their division.
Several Dodgers batters are succeeding against Manaea.
Collectively, in 158 at-bats, they own a .494 slugging rate with Manaea on the mound.
Among others, look out for Tommy Edman, who is 2-for-3 with a home run against Manaea. Edman also has at least a hit in every game in the NLCS, and he has multiple hits in three games in this series.
Also watch out for Mookie Betts, who shows even stronger form than Edman. Betts is slugging .675 in this postseason.
Moreover, Betts slugs .735 in his career facing Manaea.
New York's Bullpen
The Mets will likely lean on relievers Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz.
Both are generally capable of pitching a couple of innings.
It is ideal for the Mets that Manaea last five innings, because then they wouldn't have to rely on other relievers unless the game goes into extra innings.
However, besides Manaea's negative outlook for today, there is also the fact that both relievers have been far from perfect.
Stanek allowed a home run in his last outing. Diaz's ERA in this postseason is 4.05.
Both relievers, because they pitched on Friday, would be facing their shortest rest time if they are deployed tonight.
Los Angeles will want to knock them out of the game as soon as possible because the rest of New York's bullpen is far worse, combining for an atrocious ERA that exceeds 8.50.
Dodgers' Bullpen
Tonight will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.
It might seem tempting to think that it is a bad thing that the Dodgers have run out of starters. They are using a three-man rotation.
But this is a good thing. Whereas their starting rotation has shown shakiness, their bullpen has been solid for them. They get to rely on their strength tonight.
In contrast to a Mets' bullpen that is suffering a 5.33 ERA, Los Angeles' bullpen owns a 2.94 ERA.
The success of Los Angeles' bullpen has continued against the Mets. When the Dodgers gave up twelve runs against the Mets in Game 5, it was starter Jack Flaherty shouldering the blame.
While New York's offense did look amazing in its last game, it would be a very "Mets" thing for its lineup to suffer impotence now.
When the Mets' lineup last played well, it was shut out in the team's following game.
New York's offense has struggled to play well on a consistent basis.
Expect relievers like Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen, who have yet to give up a run in this postseason, to lock down the Mets, who will fall back down to Earth tonight.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-1.5) at +140 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 8:08 p.m. ET in Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
New York's Starter Tonight
Sean Manaea starts for the Mets tonight.
If you look at Manaea's last start, in which he allowed two earned runs to the Dodgers, then you might be tempted to trust him to perform well tonight.
However, the Dodgers have proven to be a team that commonly needs losses to jolt them into elevating their performance.
Their dominance in the NLDS, which began after they fell behind 2-1 in the series to San Diego, provides evidence of my point.
When they faced Manaea, they were coming off a 9-0 win that gave them a 1-0 lead in the NLCS.
I don't believe, in sum, that they were playing their best when they were facing Manaea.
After they lost to him, they indeed returned to their dominant ways.
They won their next two games against the Mets by a combined score of 18-2.
Tonight, Manaea catches the Dodgers in a bad spot because they are coming off a blowout loss.
Los Angeles will be fueled by that defeat.
Dating to the regular season, the Dodgers are on a 6-1 run in games that immediately follow a loss. Four of those six wins came by multiple runs.
Matchup Specifics
I also like the Dodgers tonight because they match up well against New York's left-handed starter given what he throws.
Manaea's favorite pitches are, in descending order of frequency, a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seam fastball, cutter, and slider.
Los Angeles ranks first, by far, with a .467 slugging rate against those pitches from lefties.
Key Dodgers Batters
The Dodgers have collected a lot of experience against Manaea, who used to pitch for a different team in their division.
Several Dodgers batters are succeeding against Manaea.
Collectively, in 158 at-bats, they own a .494 slugging rate with Manaea on the mound.
Among others, look out for Tommy Edman, who is 2-for-3 with a home run against Manaea. Edman also has at least a hit in every game in the NLCS, and he has multiple hits in three games in this series.
Also watch out for Mookie Betts, who shows even stronger form than Edman. Betts is slugging .675 in this postseason.
Moreover, Betts slugs .735 in his career facing Manaea.
New York's Bullpen
The Mets will likely lean on relievers Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz.
Both are generally capable of pitching a couple of innings.
It is ideal for the Mets that Manaea last five innings, because then they wouldn't have to rely on other relievers unless the game goes into extra innings.
However, besides Manaea's negative outlook for today, there is also the fact that both relievers have been far from perfect.
Stanek allowed a home run in his last outing. Diaz's ERA in this postseason is 4.05.
Both relievers, because they pitched on Friday, would be facing their shortest rest time if they are deployed tonight.
Los Angeles will want to knock them out of the game as soon as possible because the rest of New York's bullpen is far worse, combining for an atrocious ERA that exceeds 8.50.
Dodgers' Bullpen
Tonight will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.
It might seem tempting to think that it is a bad thing that the Dodgers have run out of starters. They are using a three-man rotation.
But this is a good thing. Whereas their starting rotation has shown shakiness, their bullpen has been solid for them. They get to rely on their strength tonight.
In contrast to a Mets' bullpen that is suffering a 5.33 ERA, Los Angeles' bullpen owns a 2.94 ERA.
The success of Los Angeles' bullpen has continued against the Mets. When the Dodgers gave up twelve runs against the Mets in Game 5, it was starter Jack Flaherty shouldering the blame.
While New York's offense did look amazing in its last game, it would be a very "Mets" thing for its lineup to suffer impotence now.
When the Mets' lineup last played well, it was shut out in the team's following game.
New York's offense has struggled to play well on a consistent basis.
Expect relievers like Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen, who have yet to give up a run in this postseason, to lock down the Mets, who will fall back down to Earth tonight.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-1.5) at +140 with BetOnline
