Mets vs. Dodgers NLCS Game 1 Best Bet: Expect the Pitchers to Struggle Early
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
New York's Pitching Situation
Kodai Senga will start for the Mets today.
Senga, however, is not his usual self.
He has been dealing with injuries all season.
First it was his shoulder and then it was his calf.
Because of the extent of his injuries, he pitched in one game in the regular season.
When postseason arrived, he was not ready to endure a significant number of innings.
Consequently, while he did pitch in the NLDS against Philadelphia, his inning total was two.
David Peterson, who as a starting pitcher is equipped to pitch a bulk of innings, followed Senga. It makes sense for Peterson to do the same today, although, in any case, by confining ourselves to a first-five bet we are worrying largely about how Senga performs today.
Senga's Stuff
Primarily, from descending order of usage, Senga throws five different pitches: four-seam fastball, forkball, cutter, sweeper, and slider.
One has to wonder how well he can pitch given the sparse amount of time he has spent on the mound.
When he pitched against the Phillies, he lasted two innings. Despite the briefness of his stint, he gave up a run, amounting to a 4.50 ERA. The home run was, fortunately for him, a solo shot.
Dodgers Batters Against Senga
Philadelphia did also have the benefit of matching up well against Senga in the sense that they own a strong slugging percentage against his pitches from righties.
The Dodgers pose, in this sense, a tougher test.
They rank sixth in slugging against Senga's pitches from righties.
Among L.A.'s batters, expect Mookie Betts to thrive. He is 3-for-3 with a home run in his career facing Senga.
Overall, as one would expect given their matchup advantage, Los Angeles batters slug .571 against Senga. While the data sample is small now, the Dodgers will continue to thrive against him.
Facing Peterson
The Dodgers would love for Peterson to follow Senga again.
In a greater number of at-bats — 71 in total — they bat .366 and slug .704 against Peterson.
Several different Dodgers batters, including Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, have a strong track record against Freeman.
Los Angeles slugs .458 against lefties, so the fact that Peterson is left-handed creates added pessimism for his chances against the Dodgers.
Overall, the Dodgers slugged .474 against the Mets this season. More so than other teams, they evidently like to face the Mets' pitching.
Today's Starter for the Dodgers
Jack Flaherty starts today for L.A.
Flaherty might look like an attractive option on the mound given his regular season ERA.
However, the regular season encompasses a great number of months, so season-long statistics easily become irrelevant.
How Flaherty performed many months ago does not matter right now.
What is important is his current form.
Dating to September 14, he has allowed a combined total of 14 earned runs in 19.1 innings.
One of his starts was fairly good: he allowed three earned runs in six innings to the Marlins.
But Miami ranks 27th in runs scored per game, whereas the Mets rank seventh in this category.
Flaherty in the Postseason
More and more, Flaherty is looking like a pitcher who is worth automatically fading in the postseason.
His 6.75 ERA in his one postseason start this year is worse than the 4.50 ERA that he yielded in his one postseason start last season.
Flaherty's last start does reflect his poor current form, which started to take shape in the regular season, and which includes a growing tendency to surrender home runs.
Mets Batters
Jesse Winker has already hit two home runs in his career facing Flaherty. He also has a batting average of .381 against him.
Other Mets batters will relish in facing a diminished version of Flaherty, although Pete Alonso, for example, is already 2-for-3 with Flaherty on the mound.
As evident in his struggle against the declined Braves a month ago, lineups are improving their track records against Flaherty when he faces them in his current form.
Justified pessimism toward Flaherty's capabilities today further explains why we should stick to betting on the first five innings.
With him on the mound, the Mets will score runs early. Betting-wise, we want to take advantage of their early scoring before they have to deal with L.A.'s bullpen.
Takeaway
Scoring will start early for both teams, as each lineup faces a diminished version of the opposing starting pitcher.
David Peterson following Senga would present more great news for Dodgers batters, although Los Angeles has thrived against Mets pitching in general.
New York will keep pace with the Dodgers thanks to the vulnerability, both current and in the postseason, of their starter Jack Flaherty.
Given the early-game outlook for both lineups, it is certainly worth wagering on a high-scoring first half.
Best Bet: First Half over 4.5 at +105 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
New York's Pitching Situation
Kodai Senga will start for the Mets today.
Senga, however, is not his usual self.
He has been dealing with injuries all season.
First it was his shoulder and then it was his calf.
Because of the extent of his injuries, he pitched in one game in the regular season.
When postseason arrived, he was not ready to endure a significant number of innings.
Consequently, while he did pitch in the NLDS against Philadelphia, his inning total was two.
David Peterson, who as a starting pitcher is equipped to pitch a bulk of innings, followed Senga. It makes sense for Peterson to do the same today, although, in any case, by confining ourselves to a first-five bet we are worrying largely about how Senga performs today.
Senga's Stuff
Primarily, from descending order of usage, Senga throws five different pitches: four-seam fastball, forkball, cutter, sweeper, and slider.
One has to wonder how well he can pitch given the sparse amount of time he has spent on the mound.
When he pitched against the Phillies, he lasted two innings. Despite the briefness of his stint, he gave up a run, amounting to a 4.50 ERA. The home run was, fortunately for him, a solo shot.
Dodgers Batters Against Senga
Philadelphia did also have the benefit of matching up well against Senga in the sense that they own a strong slugging percentage against his pitches from righties.
The Dodgers pose, in this sense, a tougher test.
They rank sixth in slugging against Senga's pitches from righties.
Among L.A.'s batters, expect Mookie Betts to thrive. He is 3-for-3 with a home run in his career facing Senga.
Overall, as one would expect given their matchup advantage, Los Angeles batters slug .571 against Senga. While the data sample is small now, the Dodgers will continue to thrive against him.
Facing Peterson
The Dodgers would love for Peterson to follow Senga again.
In a greater number of at-bats — 71 in total — they bat .366 and slug .704 against Peterson.
Several different Dodgers batters, including Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, have a strong track record against Freeman.
Los Angeles slugs .458 against lefties, so the fact that Peterson is left-handed creates added pessimism for his chances against the Dodgers.
Overall, the Dodgers slugged .474 against the Mets this season. More so than other teams, they evidently like to face the Mets' pitching.
Today's Starter for the Dodgers
Jack Flaherty starts today for L.A.
Flaherty might look like an attractive option on the mound given his regular season ERA.
However, the regular season encompasses a great number of months, so season-long statistics easily become irrelevant.
How Flaherty performed many months ago does not matter right now.
What is important is his current form.
Dating to September 14, he has allowed a combined total of 14 earned runs in 19.1 innings.
One of his starts was fairly good: he allowed three earned runs in six innings to the Marlins.
But Miami ranks 27th in runs scored per game, whereas the Mets rank seventh in this category.
Flaherty in the Postseason
More and more, Flaherty is looking like a pitcher who is worth automatically fading in the postseason.
His 6.75 ERA in his one postseason start this year is worse than the 4.50 ERA that he yielded in his one postseason start last season.
Flaherty's last start does reflect his poor current form, which started to take shape in the regular season, and which includes a growing tendency to surrender home runs.
Mets Batters
Jesse Winker has already hit two home runs in his career facing Flaherty. He also has a batting average of .381 against him.
Other Mets batters will relish in facing a diminished version of Flaherty, although Pete Alonso, for example, is already 2-for-3 with Flaherty on the mound.
As evident in his struggle against the declined Braves a month ago, lineups are improving their track records against Flaherty when he faces them in his current form.
Justified pessimism toward Flaherty's capabilities today further explains why we should stick to betting on the first five innings.
With him on the mound, the Mets will score runs early. Betting-wise, we want to take advantage of their early scoring before they have to deal with L.A.'s bullpen.
Takeaway
Scoring will start early for both teams, as each lineup faces a diminished version of the opposing starting pitcher.
David Peterson following Senga would present more great news for Dodgers batters, although Los Angeles has thrived against Mets pitching in general.
New York will keep pace with the Dodgers thanks to the vulnerability, both current and in the postseason, of their starter Jack Flaherty.
Given the early-game outlook for both lineups, it is certainly worth wagering on a high-scoring first half.
Best Bet: First Half over 4.5 at +105 with BetOnline
