You’ll Find Waldo Before Runs Are Scored Between Cubs and Mets
Ace Jacob deGrom gives his Mets the opportunity for a rare win tonight at 7:15 ET vs the Cubs. But instead of praying for the Mets to score, the 1H „under“ is the best play on this game.
Chicago Cubs (30-24, 22-29-3 O/U) at New York Mets (27-27, 25-29-1 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.52 ERA) is a reliable bet in his bounce-back season. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 1.37 lower than last season’s. His performance represents a continuation of last season’s second half in which he yielded a 2.91 FIP. deGrom only has four wins because his lineup is mustering 4.18 runs per game in his starts. deGrom has surrendered zero or one run in seven straight games.
deGrom has brought the opposing BA and ISO (measures extra base hits) down against all five of his pitches. He’s rediscovered comfort with his fastball. Opposing slugging against it is down from .319 last season to .274 even though he’s throwing it with career-high frequency. He relies on it most to start batters off and he throws a first-pitch strike with 64.9% frequency, which is 4.8% above MLB average. He nails his fastball with greater frequency on the corners of the zone. He combines strong velocity with good location.
He’s upped the velocity of his slider, which is his favorite whiff pitch. deGrom has also improved his change-up command, which he throws more frequently for a strike and, because of its quality, is a close second behind his slider in whiff percentage. Overall, he throws his pitches from similar release points to create deception in that hitters don’t know what’s approaching them.
His renaissance as a fastball pitcher makes him an even better match-up against Chicago, against which he’s already earned strong numbers. In his last two starts against them, they’ve managed two runs in combined 14 innings. In 66 career at-bats, they’re hitting .212 against him. The Cubs are metrically—based on SLG-xSLG— the most overachieving team against the fastball and we’re seeing regression. In the last two weeks, they’re slugging below average against it. The „under“ is 3-1 in deGrom's starts against a southpaw and 63% in all his games.
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Southpaw Mike Montgomery (1-1, 4.35 ERA) starts in place of injured Yu Darvish. Typically a reliever, the veteran also has 38 career starts. In his last one, he allowed only two hits in 5.2 innings against the Pirates. His strong performance in Pittsburgh is representative of his season-long success on the road. At home, he’s allowed more runs than he’s pitched innings. On the road, he’s allowed three runs in 20 innings and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is nearly three times better.
Unlike deGrom, he doesn’t rely on any one pitch with over 30% frequency. He thrives on good location. In his last home start, he threw with 3% greater frequency in the heart of the plate. He left his pitches in more vulnerable locations. There were five spots which he hit with over 8% frequency. He could hardly pinpoint the lowest right corner of the zone. So he failed to challenge hitters by being more predictable and less precise. Conversely, in his last road start, there was only one spot which he hit with over 8% frequency. He nailed the two lowest corners of the zone with 6.58% frequency. On the road, he keeps his pitches out of more vulnerable locations and locates them where they are harder to hit.
The Mets, who are still missing several hitters to the DL (Jay Bruce is newly listed as „questionable“), are the worst in slugging against left-handed pitchers. They rank 26th in the last two weeks in the category. Because of their low scoring output, they’ve lost their last three against southpaw starters, scoring a combined five runs in those games. They would have lost their last five against southpaws if not for a late-inning rally on May 19.
In expectation of a pitcher’s duel and out of fear for bullpen meltdowns, the 1H „under“ is the play.
Ace Jacob deGrom gives his Mets the opportunity for a rare win tonight at 7:15 ET vs the Cubs. But instead of praying for the Mets to score, the 1H „under“ is the best play on this game.
Chicago Cubs (30-24, 22-29-3 O/U) at New York Mets (27-27, 25-29-1 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.52 ERA) is a reliable bet in his bounce-back season. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 1.37 lower than last season’s. His performance represents a continuation of last season’s second half in which he yielded a 2.91 FIP. deGrom only has four wins because his lineup is mustering 4.18 runs per game in his starts. deGrom has surrendered zero or one run in seven straight games.
deGrom has brought the opposing BA and ISO (measures extra base hits) down against all five of his pitches. He’s rediscovered comfort with his fastball. Opposing slugging against it is down from .319 last season to .274 even though he’s throwing it with career-high frequency. He relies on it most to start batters off and he throws a first-pitch strike with 64.9% frequency, which is 4.8% above MLB average. He nails his fastball with greater frequency on the corners of the zone. He combines strong velocity with good location.
He’s upped the velocity of his slider, which is his favorite whiff pitch. deGrom has also improved his change-up command, which he throws more frequently for a strike and, because of its quality, is a close second behind his slider in whiff percentage. Overall, he throws his pitches from similar release points to create deception in that hitters don’t know what’s approaching them.
His renaissance as a fastball pitcher makes him an even better match-up against Chicago, against which he’s already earned strong numbers. In his last two starts against them, they’ve managed two runs in combined 14 innings. In 66 career at-bats, they’re hitting .212 against him. The Cubs are metrically—based on SLG-xSLG— the most overachieving team against the fastball and we’re seeing regression. In the last two weeks, they’re slugging below average against it. The „under“ is 3-1 in deGrom's starts against a southpaw and 63% in all his games.
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Southpaw Mike Montgomery (1-1, 4.35 ERA) starts in place of injured Yu Darvish. Typically a reliever, the veteran also has 38 career starts. In his last one, he allowed only two hits in 5.2 innings against the Pirates. His strong performance in Pittsburgh is representative of his season-long success on the road. At home, he’s allowed more runs than he’s pitched innings. On the road, he’s allowed three runs in 20 innings and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is nearly three times better.
Unlike deGrom, he doesn’t rely on any one pitch with over 30% frequency. He thrives on good location. In his last home start, he threw with 3% greater frequency in the heart of the plate. He left his pitches in more vulnerable locations. There were five spots which he hit with over 8% frequency. He could hardly pinpoint the lowest right corner of the zone. So he failed to challenge hitters by being more predictable and less precise. Conversely, in his last road start, there was only one spot which he hit with over 8% frequency. He nailed the two lowest corners of the zone with 6.58% frequency. On the road, he keeps his pitches out of more vulnerable locations and locates them where they are harder to hit.
The Mets, who are still missing several hitters to the DL (Jay Bruce is newly listed as „questionable“), are the worst in slugging against left-handed pitchers. They rank 26th in the last two weeks in the category. Because of their low scoring output, they’ve lost their last three against southpaw starters, scoring a combined five runs in those games. They would have lost their last five against southpaws if not for a late-inning rally on May 19.
In expectation of a pitcher’s duel and out of fear for bullpen meltdowns, the 1H „under“ is the play.
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