Pair Of Spot Starters Calls For "Over" Play In Mets-Cubs Soiree
New York Mets (35-39) at Chicago Cubs (40-33)
When: 8:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five Over
Tonight's theme is that both starters are pitching by necessity and not by choice. Chicago's Tyler Chatwood (3-1, 3.60 ERA) fills in for the injured Kyle Hendricks to make his second start of the season. Chatwood used to be a starter, but was relegated to the bullpen because of his poor performance.
Chatwood's main flaw was and still is his command. This year, he's allowing over five walks per nine innings. One reason for this flaw is his mechanics. Chatwood's issues with command really began last year, when he dropped his arm angle by a significant degree. Maybe he would be more effective if he would deliver his pitches from a greater height.
In order to avoid walking too many batters, he needs to make sure that he places the ball within the strike zone. Five of his eight most frequent pitch locations are in the nine most middle spots of the zone. The extreme amount of spin that Chatwood puts on his pitches isn't able to make up for their location. If he had greater command, he would follow Justin Verlander and James Paxton in placing his pitches more often in the upper parts of the strike zone, where their extreme rotation induces batters to whiff at a high percentage.
Another problem with Chatwood is his lack of variety. His fastball and sinker make up together 77 percent of his arsenal. Chatwood matches up poorly against the Mets because they rank 10th in slugging against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball and sinker from righties. Chatwood has faced two other teams that rank top-10 in the category, conceding six runs in four innings to St. Louis and one run in two innings to Atlanta.
An addition match-up factor is that Chatwood struggles especially against lefties, who hit .321 against him. Two of New York's three leaders in OPS (on-base plus slugging) are left-handed. Jeff McNeil has three doubles and a homer in his past two games combined. Michael Conforto has a 10-game hitting streak. Moreover, Robinson Cano is 3-for-6 (.500) against Chatwood.
The "over" is 7-2 in New York's last nine games, mostly due to its poor pitching. Tonight, Walker Lockett will step in for the injured Noah Syndergaard. Lockett is a 25 year-old who made his only four professional appearances last year. He yielded an ERA of 9.00 or worse in each of them. After getting beat up in Spring Training, he got sent to Triple-A, where his ERA is currently 3.69, which is even worse than last year's.
Typical of young pitchers, Lockett throws his fastball more than half the time. It's very average in both velocity and spin. It shows moderate arm-side motion, but he throws more balls than strikes with it. Last year, opponents slugged .659 against it. The Cubs slugged .813 against it when they tagged Lockett for five runs in five innings. Lockett's two secondary pitches, his curveball and change-up, performed even worse. In particular, he couldn't keep his curveball away from the middle parts of the plate, where opponents took advantage with extremely high slugging rates.
As evident even in the minors, Lockett lacks the individual pitch quality and command to miss many bats. Watch out for Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward. Each of them is 2-for-3 against Lockett. Rizzo and Schwarber have a double and a homer against him. Moreover, Kris Bryant is hitting .471 in his past seven days.
New York Mets (35-39) at Chicago Cubs (40-33)
When: 8:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five Over
Tonight's theme is that both starters are pitching by necessity and not by choice. Chicago's Tyler Chatwood (3-1, 3.60 ERA) fills in for the injured Kyle Hendricks to make his second start of the season. Chatwood used to be a starter, but was relegated to the bullpen because of his poor performance.
Chatwood's main flaw was and still is his command. This year, he's allowing over five walks per nine innings. One reason for this flaw is his mechanics. Chatwood's issues with command really began last year, when he dropped his arm angle by a significant degree. Maybe he would be more effective if he would deliver his pitches from a greater height.
In order to avoid walking too many batters, he needs to make sure that he places the ball within the strike zone. Five of his eight most frequent pitch locations are in the nine most middle spots of the zone. The extreme amount of spin that Chatwood puts on his pitches isn't able to make up for their location. If he had greater command, he would follow Justin Verlander and James Paxton in placing his pitches more often in the upper parts of the strike zone, where their extreme rotation induces batters to whiff at a high percentage.
Another problem with Chatwood is his lack of variety. His fastball and sinker make up together 77 percent of his arsenal. Chatwood matches up poorly against the Mets because they rank 10th in slugging against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball and sinker from righties. Chatwood has faced two other teams that rank top-10 in the category, conceding six runs in four innings to St. Louis and one run in two innings to Atlanta.
An addition match-up factor is that Chatwood struggles especially against lefties, who hit .321 against him. Two of New York's three leaders in OPS (on-base plus slugging) are left-handed. Jeff McNeil has three doubles and a homer in his past two games combined. Michael Conforto has a 10-game hitting streak. Moreover, Robinson Cano is 3-for-6 (.500) against Chatwood.
The "over" is 7-2 in New York's last nine games, mostly due to its poor pitching. Tonight, Walker Lockett will step in for the injured Noah Syndergaard. Lockett is a 25 year-old who made his only four professional appearances last year. He yielded an ERA of 9.00 or worse in each of them. After getting beat up in Spring Training, he got sent to Triple-A, where his ERA is currently 3.69, which is even worse than last year's.
Typical of young pitchers, Lockett throws his fastball more than half the time. It's very average in both velocity and spin. It shows moderate arm-side motion, but he throws more balls than strikes with it. Last year, opponents slugged .659 against it. The Cubs slugged .813 against it when they tagged Lockett for five runs in five innings. Lockett's two secondary pitches, his curveball and change-up, performed even worse. In particular, he couldn't keep his curveball away from the middle parts of the plate, where opponents took advantage with extremely high slugging rates.
As evident even in the minors, Lockett lacks the individual pitch quality and command to miss many bats. Watch out for Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward. Each of them is 2-for-3 against Lockett. Rizzo and Schwarber have a double and a homer against him. Moreover, Kris Bryant is hitting .471 in his past seven days.
