MLB Picks April 16: NYM-OAK, CHC-LAD, TEX-HOU
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Oakland's Capable Lineup
People commonly say that Oakland's lineup is anemic.
It is true that the A's are ranked 24thin runs per game.
But the A's have scored five runs or more in six of their 15 games.
This stat means that they repeatedly show that they are capable of scoring plenty of runs.
In the right situation, we should not count out Oakland's hitting.
Mets' Pitching Change
The situation is golden for Oakland's lineup because of who is starting for the Mets.
Star pitcher Max Scherzer is having his start pushed back because he's dealing with soreness.
Jose Butto will start in his place.
Butto is a Triple A pitcher who has been pitching like one.
Every pitcher who gets called to the majors has nice stuff, but it's rare to also be able to locate it well.
Butto's command is awful. His inability to locate his pitches helps explain why, in Triple A, he's walking close to five batters per nine innings.
His awful command makes him unready for professional baseball.
Indeed, in his last MLB start, he allowed seven runs in four innings against the Phillies last August.
Who Starts for the A's?
JP Sears starts for Oakland today.
Sears has been struggling this season especially to keep the ball inside the park.
He has suffered against teams that don't match up as well as the Mets do in terms of slugging rate against his pitches.
Francisco Lindor already hits him well, and the Mets boast especially some righties, such as Pete Alonso, who should be able to thrive against a lefty like Sears.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Drew Smyly starts for the Cubs today.
Smyly might seem like he is not worth investing in, because his ERA is poor.
But his high ERA is a consequence of one single bad start, which was his first of the season.
In his most recent start, he allowed one run in five innings against Seattle.
Evidently, his form is just fine and he is ready to go.
Smyly vs. Dodger Batters
Smyly is a southpaw who throws primarily two pitches.
He features a curveball 46.7 percent of the time and a sinker 45 percent of the time.
With these pitches, Smyly does an excellent. job of generating soft contact.
His outlook against Dodgers' batters is positive because they slug an awful .304 against his pitches from lefties.
L.A.'s Superb Starter
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers today.
As evident in the season he's having so far, he is sure to keep pace with Smyly.
In three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
He has endured six innings in all three starts, and no opponent has scored more than two runs off him
Urias has accumulated an absurd 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His pitching arsenal is unique: he throws a fastball and a slurve, primarily.
As heat maps show, he ably distributes his fastball along different parts of the plate while concentrating it on the edges of the strike zone.
Meanwhile, his slurve is almost untouchable -- opponents are hitting .150 against it.
His outlook tonight is especially positive since the Cubs slug .357 against his pitches despite facing worse versions of them from other, inferior pitches.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for Texas.
Are we going to get the Heaney who allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings against Baltimore or the one who locked down the Royals?
Alternating great outings with awful ones is not uncommon for Heaney, as evident in his last starts of last season.
So it shouldn't be surprising if he performs awfully today.
Heaney's Outlook
Heaney's outlook is negative for two reasons.
One, he struggles historically in Houston's venue.
His career ERA is 4.91 in five starts here.
Two, he matches up poorly against Houston given the pitches that he throws.
Heaney is a lefty who relies on a fastball, slider, and changeup.
The Astros rank fourth in slugging against Heaney's pitches from lefties.
Hence, plenty of Astro batters are primed to hit him well today.
Jose Abreu, for example, slugs 1.455 in 11 career at-bats against him.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight.
Valdez is enjoying a solid start to his season.
After shutting out the White Sox in five innings, he allowed two earned runs in seven innings in both of his last starts.
Valdez's Matchup
Valdez is a strong ground ball pitcher.
So far, he is inducing ground balls with 68.6 percent frequency.
His favorite pitch is the sinker, which is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch.
He also features a curveball and changeup that he tends to locate low in the strike zone or beneath the strike zone.
Valdez matches up well against the Rangers because they bat .203 and slug .339 against ground ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 at +110 with BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Oakland's Capable Lineup
People commonly say that Oakland's lineup is anemic.
It is true that the A's are ranked 24thin runs per game.
But the A's have scored five runs or more in six of their 15 games.
This stat means that they repeatedly show that they are capable of scoring plenty of runs.
In the right situation, we should not count out Oakland's hitting.
Mets' Pitching Change
The situation is golden for Oakland's lineup because of who is starting for the Mets.
Star pitcher Max Scherzer is having his start pushed back because he's dealing with soreness.
Jose Butto will start in his place.
Butto is a Triple A pitcher who has been pitching like one.
Every pitcher who gets called to the majors has nice stuff, but it's rare to also be able to locate it well.
Butto's command is awful. His inability to locate his pitches helps explain why, in Triple A, he's walking close to five batters per nine innings.
His awful command makes him unready for professional baseball.
Indeed, in his last MLB start, he allowed seven runs in four innings against the Phillies last August.
Who Starts for the A's?
JP Sears starts for Oakland today.
Sears has been struggling this season especially to keep the ball inside the park.
He has suffered against teams that don't match up as well as the Mets do in terms of slugging rate against his pitches.
Francisco Lindor already hits him well, and the Mets boast especially some righties, such as Pete Alonso, who should be able to thrive against a lefty like Sears.
Best Bet: Over (Odds TBA)
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Who Starts for the Cubs?
Drew Smyly starts for the Cubs today.
Smyly might seem like he is not worth investing in, because his ERA is poor.
But his high ERA is a consequence of one single bad start, which was his first of the season.
In his most recent start, he allowed one run in five innings against Seattle.
Evidently, his form is just fine and he is ready to go.
Smyly vs. Dodger Batters
Smyly is a southpaw who throws primarily two pitches.
He features a curveball 46.7 percent of the time and a sinker 45 percent of the time.
With these pitches, Smyly does an excellent. job of generating soft contact.
His outlook against Dodgers' batters is positive because they slug an awful .304 against his pitches from lefties.
L.A.'s Superb Starter
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers today.
As evident in the season he's having so far, he is sure to keep pace with Smyly.
In three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
He has endured six innings in all three starts, and no opponent has scored more than two runs off him
Urias has accumulated an absurd 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His pitching arsenal is unique: he throws a fastball and a slurve, primarily.
As heat maps show, he ably distributes his fastball along different parts of the plate while concentrating it on the edges of the strike zone.
Meanwhile, his slurve is almost untouchable -- opponents are hitting .150 against it.
His outlook tonight is especially positive since the Cubs slug .357 against his pitches despite facing worse versions of them from other, inferior pitches.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Texas?
Andrew Heaney starts for Texas.
Are we going to get the Heaney who allowed seven runs in 2.2 innings against Baltimore or the one who locked down the Royals?
Alternating great outings with awful ones is not uncommon for Heaney, as evident in his last starts of last season.
So it shouldn't be surprising if he performs awfully today.
Heaney's Outlook
Heaney's outlook is negative for two reasons.
One, he struggles historically in Houston's venue.
His career ERA is 4.91 in five starts here.
Two, he matches up poorly against Houston given the pitches that he throws.
Heaney is a lefty who relies on a fastball, slider, and changeup.
The Astros rank fourth in slugging against Heaney's pitches from lefties.
Hence, plenty of Astro batters are primed to hit him well today.
Jose Abreu, for example, slugs 1.455 in 11 career at-bats against him.
Who Starts for Houston?
Framber Valdez starts for the Astros tonight.
Valdez is enjoying a solid start to his season.
After shutting out the White Sox in five innings, he allowed two earned runs in seven innings in both of his last starts.
Valdez's Matchup
Valdez is a strong ground ball pitcher.
So far, he is inducing ground balls with 68.6 percent frequency.
His favorite pitch is the sinker, which is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch.
He also features a curveball and changeup that he tends to locate low in the strike zone or beneath the strike zone.
Valdez matches up well against the Rangers because they bat .203 and slug .339 against ground ball pitchers.
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 at +110 with BetOnline
