Merry Christmas Monday!

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
To all the CTG partners , posters , lurkers and guests hope you and your families have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat

Have to think it will feel a little odd for LAL to tip @ 2:30 PM EST...they will be on 2 days rest for Game 4 of this road trip which they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS. Now I always look to fade teams on these long trips but this year teams are getting soft lines in these spots...or in the dogs case a fat line...

Oddly LA has played just one game on 2 days rest and two games on 3+ days rest. They are basically avg 109 and allowing 107 in these spots going 2-1 SU. Miami is a team thats IMO hard to rely on season stats because of the Shaq and Wade absences...so I wont! heat have won 5 of 7 at home but that includes a loss w/o Wade to PHO...basically the HEat have been in the 98-105 range at home on offense...

I am thinking Miami will be -1.5 maybe -2 here....198 total...

On defense they have allowed at least 94 for 10 straight....

With Odom out I think LAL rebounding can suffer at times and that will be something Miami needs to exploit.....

Really tough for me to get a feel cause Ihave so many other contests on my mind...curious to see the line here...

Looking at playing Miami though and probably an over if my guesses are correct...

BOL....feel free to add your take/thoughts on the lone NBA game the next 2 days!
 
Sport,
Happy Holidays to you as well. I like the over if it is near 205-207 which I think it will. Wade and Kobe will be displaying some fireworks in this one.
 
thanks Nut. I am wondering if the sickness of Kobe reflects that? Anyway, I will be riding the over there. Not sure if I am going to pick a side, too tough there although I lean the home team. They got to sleep at home last night. Anyway, merry X-Mas everyone.
 
Thanks everyone and Merry Christmas to all!

Okay here is my take on this Matchup :

A few things that get tossed around are who benefits from a Holiday game the home team or the away team. Personally I feel this is one of those overused and overquoted factors. How do we know how the 12 guys in LA feel about not being Home for Christmas?? I dont know each guys family situation do you? How many actually would have been in LA anyway? I do think its sort of an odd trip schedule wise with them coming East playing in NJ and now in Miami probably flying home for the holidays after this game. With Miami could they be less focused for being for home and caught in the Holiday Spirit or better prepared for simply being home?? Questions I feel you can never really answer in this era especially with such player turnover. So dont put to much into that angle IMO...

The next factor the Kobe illness story...why s this getting so much discussion now when its been known for a few days ?? Here is my proof....

By TOM CANAVAN, AP Sports Writer
December 22, 2006

<TABLE style="PADDING-LEFT: 8px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 5px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ysptblbdr2><TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>
<SMALL>AP - Dec 22, 10:53 pm EST</SMALL>
More Photos</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -- The flu only slowed Kobe Bryant, it didn't stop him.
Bryant had 21 points, a season-high 11 assists and combined with Jordan Farmar to lead the Los Angeles Lakers in the fourth quarter in a 99-95 victory over the New Jersey Nets on Friday night. "It's a struggle," Bryant said of playing with the illness. "I'm looking forward to going back to the room and getting some rest. I have been struggling with it right before we came out on the road trip. I've been trying to fight it off. Last night it caught up to me."

This was three days ago and he said he was battling it for days already...so you would think it has to be close to running its course by now.....non factor it seems to me....

Both teams are missing stars in Odom and Shaq but yo have to wonder who is the bigger loss?? This is Wade versus Kobe....

So since the deal Odom for Shaq the Heat are 3-1 SU and 2-0 on XMAS. Kobe 1st meeting 12/30 , then 8 / 23 , then 12 /30 , finally a 13 of 24 for game last meeting. Now this Miami team is very similiar minus Shaq and th growth of youngsters Kapono and Wright. However the books fucked up and installed Miami as -3.5 favs in LA after they falled as 6.5 pt home chalk...curious decision IMO! So yeah a bad line lost again...

So where do I stand? Basically the Heat have been up and down all season so its always tough to pin on a specific value on teams. As I mentioned I expected -1.5 here maybe -2 so from where I stand getting Miami as a Dog is value. Despite what has happened recently Miami is 10-4 UNDER 2 Home and LAL has allowed 94 ppg the past 3 road games. In there past 7 home games they have kept there opponents under 100 pts and better is they dont put there opponents on the FT Line...17,19,28,25 ,5 , 28 and 17 attempts....the have 4 Overs with totasl of 180,183 and 184 plus the 199 vs Den..they have totals set in the 190's all Unders and 4 set above 200 all Unders......

I think this will not be as high scoring as it would appear cause you can see how versus solid defensive EAST teams like NJ and Chi they Lakers struggled to put points on the board and Miami is a very solid rebounding team even if it starts its smaller lineup....a game played in the mid 90's..

Just looking at numbers both get about 76 shots per game in there situations...@ 45% thats 34 makes each...if they both hit 6 threes each...your looking at 74 pts each and with about 25 Fts each and avg shooting teams even at 76% they would hit 19 each and both are in the low 70's...so you basically we are looking at 93 -93....range...

So since LA was undervalued all trip they were +3 in NJ cant see Miami being 4 pts worse then NJ at this point?? About 6 pt dogs in Minny and Chi ...is Miami 7 pts worse then those...last time LAL was favored away...Portland and lost....think while LAL is playing well this line is simly off....

Plays:
Under 201 -115 (Large)
Heat +101 (Large) & +2 -110 (Large)


Looking at Player Props...basically waiting to finalize this plays but with 2 hours to tip feel confident about these so I have 2 plays on the side..


BOL......
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Home</TD><TD class=yspscores>15</TD><TD class=yspscores>39:06 </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>49.5</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>48.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>85.7</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.3</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>29.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Away</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD class=yspscores>39:00 </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>44.8</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18.2</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>82.1</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.9</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24.8</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


If this Kobe v Wade then you can see there is a quite a dropoof in Kobe 's productivity when he travels . Not to mention his poor play in prior meetings or at least poor shooting...
 
touc said:
Merry xmas sports, hope you're having a good day. Any thoughts on the first quarter under?
Click to expand...

From what it looks like recently both teams hav played very high 1st Q's and seem to low 4th quarters which basically leads to 1st H Overs and 2nd Half Unders...hope that helps some...I would be looking to probably play 2nd H Under if the 1st H was above the 101 threshold..BOLand Merry XMas as well
 
Kobe day vs Nite game

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Day</TD><TD class=yspscores>6</TD><TD class=yspscores>41:06 </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>45.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>50.0</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>5.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>82.9</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.0</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>25.3</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Night</TD><TD class=yspscores>18</TD><TD class=yspscores>38:23 </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>19.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>48.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>32.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>8.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>84.7</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.9</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>28.6</TD><TD class=yspscores></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Looks like I will do this ..

Under 201 -115 (Large) Win +4.00
Miami +2 -115 (Large) Win +4.00 ML +101 (Medium) Win +2.02

Leave myself some wiggle room at Halftime if needed...
 
Last edited:
I am with ya on the under but the Lake Show for me heres hope one of us goes 2-0 GL and merry xmas
 
Wish I had I played Heat 1st Q & +119 and 1st H @ +110 got sidetracked and it went off the board.

To hedge some of my Under which has a 113,114 pt cushion I will play Over 100 -114 (Small) basically 1 of my 4 units...
 
Second Half

+3 -114 Miami (Small) Win +1.00
ML +162 (Small) Win +1.62

Lost the hedge by 1 pt
Over 100 -114 (Small) Loss -1.14
 
Last edited:
Hmmm 101 -85 final....I basically called the total..

Just looking at numbers both get about 76 shots per game in there situations...@ 45% thats 34 makes each...if they both hit 6 threes each...your looking at 74 pts each and with about 25 Fts each and avg shooting teams even at 76% they would hit 19 each and both are in the low 70's...so you basically we are looking at 93 -93....range...

LAL had 79 shots and 24 FTs..that was good math by me...
 
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