It seems like there is a relatively high amount of disagreement on this board about this game. But thankfully this isn't Covers and we are all friends here. Hope you enjoy the read and thanks. Let's discuss and enjoy the game :cheers3:
Why Memphis Will Cover In Tight Affair vs UCF
The Memphis Tigers and UCF Golden Knights play their first conference game on Friday night in Orlando. The game was moved up from Saturday due to the incoming hurricane. The spread is at 3 or 3.5 points and the total has moved from 67 to 69 despite the possibility of rain.
In their Week 1 opener, Memphis dominated the first 3 quarters against Louisiana Monroe despite having to endure disgusting weather conditions in the form of heavy rain and wind that grounded their otherwise dangerous passing attack. Even though quarterback Riley Ferguson was unable to be productive, Memphis showed how prolific its rush attack can be. Both Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. ran for over 100 yards last week and, rain or shine, can do so again tonight. Taylor is a bruising back who averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season. Henderson has amazing speed and, like Taylor, is capable of making big plays. Both backs are actually reserves on the depth chart. Starter Doroland Dorceus suffered a minor injury last week, but has since been upgraded to 'probable' and should therefore play tonight.
Riley Ferguson is your prototypical pocket passer who is most known for breaking Paxton Lynch's single-season passing touchdown record (32) at Tennessee. He is tall, has good pocket presence, and can make big throws under pressure. Unlike Lynch, he is able to push the ball down the field. Weather permitting, Ferguson will be launching deep balls especially to his favorite target, Anthony Miller, who set several school records last year, including receiving yards, (1,434) which had been formerly held by future Hall of Fame legend Isaac Bruce.
If Ferguson is his usual self tonight, UCF's pass defense will get its first true test of the season. They dealt with FIU's scrub at quarterback, but UCF's secondary still has many questions to answer. They lost all four starters from last year's secondary. They will hope for a lot of help from Alabama transfer Shawn Burgess-Becker.
The match-up to watch for will be Memphis' rush attack versus UCF's rush defense. Memphis' running backs weren't tested much by ULM. But UCF's defensive line possesses a lot of talent and depth which which to rotate players so that they stay fresh. They have a number of players who succeeded last year under first year defensive coordinator Erik Chinander's 3-4 system and these players will build off of that success.
UCF's offense looked great in its second year under Scott Frost's "UCFast" system. Sophomore McKenzie Milton is a rising superstar. He doesn't have a live arm or deep-passing ability like his counterpart Ferguson, but neither does Mariota. Milton draws a lot of comparisons to the Titans' superstar because of his dual-threat, big ability, which helps him wrack up big numbers in UCF's fast-tempo offense. Milton can beat a defense with his legs and with his arm. He torched FIU last week: 16/21 360 yards 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Milton already displayed great chemistry with number 1 receiver Tre'Quan Smith, who caught two touchdowns last week. UCF has a talented running back in Adrian Killins. He was a reserve player last season, but he used his speed and athleticism to average 6.5 yards per carry. UCF didn't show much of a rushing attack last week against FIU, and this is a concern especially if rain does fall tomorrow.
Part of UCF's problem with its rushing attack stems from the subpar quality of its offensive line. Both Killins and the line do have a chance to perform better, though, against a Memphis defense whose line was rather anemic last year, in terms of sacks and tackles for a loss achieved.
Memphis' defense will already miss three key players due to injury, and, for a half, another one due to a personal foul call. Memphis' defense will miss a defensive lineman, another one for a half, and two members of its linebacking corps, which was supposed to compose the strength of the defense.
O'Bryan Goodson is a true freshman on Memphis' defensive line who achieved two tackles for loss and a sack in his college debut last week. But Memphis will still need a lot of help on defense. The sophomore Killins is explosive and enjoys big-play potential against just about any defense. The secondary has to replace 6 of their 8 defensive backs from last season and will struggle to stop Milton.
The Verdict
I think that the spread is this high because a lot of bettors are deceived by the close final score in last week's Memphis game and the blowout in the UCF game. Memphis was in last week's fourth quarter already looking ahead to the showdown with UCF. Ferguson will be licking his chops to take on a secondary that is missing so many pieces from last year. Even if the weather is bad, Memphis features a prolific rushing attack consisting of three solid players, two speedy and electric athletes and another bruiser who is tough to bring down, who already showed the ability to carry their team. UCF's rushing attack has yet to get going and will likely have even more trouble doing so if the weather conditions are poor. But even if the weather is just fine, McKenzie Milton has his match in Riley Ferguson and Tre'Quan Smith has his match in Anthony Miller. Both teams have a lot of questions on defense. Even though UCF has an edge in its defensive line, Memphis also has a much superior offensive line. At the end of the day, there is not much separating these two teams.
NCAAF Pick: Memphis +3.5
Why Memphis Will Cover In Tight Affair vs UCF
The Memphis Tigers and UCF Golden Knights play their first conference game on Friday night in Orlando. The game was moved up from Saturday due to the incoming hurricane. The spread is at 3 or 3.5 points and the total has moved from 67 to 69 despite the possibility of rain.
In their Week 1 opener, Memphis dominated the first 3 quarters against Louisiana Monroe despite having to endure disgusting weather conditions in the form of heavy rain and wind that grounded their otherwise dangerous passing attack. Even though quarterback Riley Ferguson was unable to be productive, Memphis showed how prolific its rush attack can be. Both Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. ran for over 100 yards last week and, rain or shine, can do so again tonight. Taylor is a bruising back who averaged 5.9 yards per carry last season. Henderson has amazing speed and, like Taylor, is capable of making big plays. Both backs are actually reserves on the depth chart. Starter Doroland Dorceus suffered a minor injury last week, but has since been upgraded to 'probable' and should therefore play tonight.
Riley Ferguson is your prototypical pocket passer who is most known for breaking Paxton Lynch's single-season passing touchdown record (32) at Tennessee. He is tall, has good pocket presence, and can make big throws under pressure. Unlike Lynch, he is able to push the ball down the field. Weather permitting, Ferguson will be launching deep balls especially to his favorite target, Anthony Miller, who set several school records last year, including receiving yards, (1,434) which had been formerly held by future Hall of Fame legend Isaac Bruce.
If Ferguson is his usual self tonight, UCF's pass defense will get its first true test of the season. They dealt with FIU's scrub at quarterback, but UCF's secondary still has many questions to answer. They lost all four starters from last year's secondary. They will hope for a lot of help from Alabama transfer Shawn Burgess-Becker.
The match-up to watch for will be Memphis' rush attack versus UCF's rush defense. Memphis' running backs weren't tested much by ULM. But UCF's defensive line possesses a lot of talent and depth which which to rotate players so that they stay fresh. They have a number of players who succeeded last year under first year defensive coordinator Erik Chinander's 3-4 system and these players will build off of that success.
UCF's offense looked great in its second year under Scott Frost's "UCFast" system. Sophomore McKenzie Milton is a rising superstar. He doesn't have a live arm or deep-passing ability like his counterpart Ferguson, but neither does Mariota. Milton draws a lot of comparisons to the Titans' superstar because of his dual-threat, big ability, which helps him wrack up big numbers in UCF's fast-tempo offense. Milton can beat a defense with his legs and with his arm. He torched FIU last week: 16/21 360 yards 4 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Milton already displayed great chemistry with number 1 receiver Tre'Quan Smith, who caught two touchdowns last week. UCF has a talented running back in Adrian Killins. He was a reserve player last season, but he used his speed and athleticism to average 6.5 yards per carry. UCF didn't show much of a rushing attack last week against FIU, and this is a concern especially if rain does fall tomorrow.
Part of UCF's problem with its rushing attack stems from the subpar quality of its offensive line. Both Killins and the line do have a chance to perform better, though, against a Memphis defense whose line was rather anemic last year, in terms of sacks and tackles for a loss achieved.
Memphis' defense will already miss three key players due to injury, and, for a half, another one due to a personal foul call. Memphis' defense will miss a defensive lineman, another one for a half, and two members of its linebacking corps, which was supposed to compose the strength of the defense.
O'Bryan Goodson is a true freshman on Memphis' defensive line who achieved two tackles for loss and a sack in his college debut last week. But Memphis will still need a lot of help on defense. The sophomore Killins is explosive and enjoys big-play potential against just about any defense. The secondary has to replace 6 of their 8 defensive backs from last season and will struggle to stop Milton.
The Verdict
I think that the spread is this high because a lot of bettors are deceived by the close final score in last week's Memphis game and the blowout in the UCF game. Memphis was in last week's fourth quarter already looking ahead to the showdown with UCF. Ferguson will be licking his chops to take on a secondary that is missing so many pieces from last year. Even if the weather is bad, Memphis features a prolific rushing attack consisting of three solid players, two speedy and electric athletes and another bruiser who is tough to bring down, who already showed the ability to carry their team. UCF's rushing attack has yet to get going and will likely have even more trouble doing so if the weather conditions are poor. But even if the weather is just fine, McKenzie Milton has his match in Riley Ferguson and Tre'Quan Smith has his match in Anthony Miller. Both teams have a lot of questions on defense. Even though UCF has an edge in its defensive line, Memphis also has a much superior offensive line. At the end of the day, there is not much separating these two teams.
NCAAF Pick: Memphis +3.5
