Bet This NBA Playoffs Parlay at (+264) on Thursday
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Target Center in Minnesota
Steven Adams
Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins realized that playing Steven Adams was pointless.
It should have been obvious after Game 1, but give Jenkins credit for giving Adams the hook after literally only three minutes.
Adams adds nothing on defense because he can't contain Karl-Anthony Towns.
Plus, Adams isn't a threat on offense. He has zero points after 27 points.
The kicker is this: Memphis can still thrive on the glass without Adams, although Adams is supposed to be the team's top rebounder.
In Game 2, we saw Memphis rebound with the kind of success that we expect one of the NBA's top rebounding teams to have.
This year, the Grizzlies rank third in total rebounds per game.
Their domination on the glass without Adams in Game 2 stresses how he adds nothing on the court.
Replacements
Taking out Adams helps on defense because Xavier Tillman can replace him.
Tillman matches up well against Towns given Tillman's combination of speed and physicality.
He is quick enough to defend Towns in space. Plus, Tillman is still physical enough to handle him in the post.
Jaren Jackson Jr. in Game 2 was also able to bother Towns with his length, athleticism, and quickness.
Towns is not rather a physical type of player, even if he'll try to bulldoze his way inside while somehow managing to avoid committing charges.
So it's a smart move for Jenkins to deploy defenders in Tillman and Jackson who are superior to Adams in areas other than physicality.
Turnovers
Memphis has enjoyed the clear edge in steals, having accrued 16 of them through Game 2.
This disparity in success forcing turnovers must have been expected given what happened in the regular season.
This year, the Timberwolves rank 23rd at limiting their own turnovers.
They are not good at protecting the basketball.
On the other side, no team does a better job of amassing steals than the Grizzlies.
They average 9.7 of them per game, which is .8 more than second place.
Steals are particularly great for Memphis because it loves to run.
Ja Morant is known for being a maestro in transition where he uses his speed to race down the court.
Morant is probably most dangerous when he gets downhill and, in transition, it is easier to find opportunities to attack the basket downhill since the opposing defenders are struggling to get into position.
Turnovers are great for the "over" in a game like this because they contribute to easy baskets.
Transition basketball will continue to be particularly important in this series' results.
During the regular season, the Grizzlies executed plays in transition with the highest frequency.
Minnesota is vulnerable in this area. It allowed the third-most points in transition per game.
Given this large data sample showing how Memphis' strength in transition matches up with Minnesota's weakness in defending transition basketball, we should expect the Grizzlies to have another tremendous advantage in Game 3.
Waiting
One really can't complain about Memphis' offense.
After scoring 117 points in Game 1, the Grizzlies amassed 124 in Game 2.
It seems clear that the Grizzly offense is too potent for Minnesota's defense. Two games have shown that the Timberwolves lack answers.
I think that Memphis can do even better in the scoring department.
I'm quite surprised that De'Anthony Melton hasn't been more productive.
Melton is a big reason for Memphis' success when Morant is off the court -- the Grizzlies even had an excellent record in games that Morant missed.
Melton ably attacks the basket while adding points as a catch-and-shoot threat from behind the arc.
He can do a lot more in Game 3.
Three-Pointers
Both teams are slated to perform more strongly from behind the arc.
Minnesota is very much a volume shooting three-point team. They attempt the most threes per game.
So much of what they do depends on their ability to knock down threes.
Driving the basketball, executing pick-and-rolls, getting to the free throw line. These are all things that they do better when they're making threes.
In Game 2, though, their conversion rate from three was shockingly poor.
It's easy to want to give credit to the Grizzly perimeter defense for its rotations.
Memphis' improved perimeter defense did contribute somewhat to its victory.
But Memphis is not responsible for Minnesota's conversion rate on three-point attempts when no defender is in the vicinity to contest them.
The Timberwolves attempted 21 wide open threes, threes where the nearest defender is six feet or further from the shooter.
Minnesota literally only made five of them. Especially at home, Minnesota will shoot more efficiently from deep.
But so will the Grizzlies: in Game 2, they converted two of 17 open three-point attempts, which, again, is a surprisingly poor conversion rate.
Among other things, more Grizzly threes will help open up the lane for Morant so that he can drive and attack the basket or find teammates in the arc.
The Verdict
Memphis will cover the spread with its successful interior defense, its supremacy in transition, and Morant's versatility in the half-court offense.
The game will go "over" as Memphis' offense remains unstoppable and Minnesota makes more threes.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzlies -2 at -110 & Over 236.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Target Center in Minnesota
Steven Adams
Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins realized that playing Steven Adams was pointless.
It should have been obvious after Game 1, but give Jenkins credit for giving Adams the hook after literally only three minutes.
Adams adds nothing on defense because he can't contain Karl-Anthony Towns.
Plus, Adams isn't a threat on offense. He has zero points after 27 points.
The kicker is this: Memphis can still thrive on the glass without Adams, although Adams is supposed to be the team's top rebounder.
In Game 2, we saw Memphis rebound with the kind of success that we expect one of the NBA's top rebounding teams to have.
This year, the Grizzlies rank third in total rebounds per game.
Their domination on the glass without Adams in Game 2 stresses how he adds nothing on the court.
Replacements
Taking out Adams helps on defense because Xavier Tillman can replace him.
Tillman matches up well against Towns given Tillman's combination of speed and physicality.
He is quick enough to defend Towns in space. Plus, Tillman is still physical enough to handle him in the post.
Jaren Jackson Jr. in Game 2 was also able to bother Towns with his length, athleticism, and quickness.
Towns is not rather a physical type of player, even if he'll try to bulldoze his way inside while somehow managing to avoid committing charges.
So it's a smart move for Jenkins to deploy defenders in Tillman and Jackson who are superior to Adams in areas other than physicality.
Turnovers
Memphis has enjoyed the clear edge in steals, having accrued 16 of them through Game 2.
This disparity in success forcing turnovers must have been expected given what happened in the regular season.
This year, the Timberwolves rank 23rd at limiting their own turnovers.
They are not good at protecting the basketball.
On the other side, no team does a better job of amassing steals than the Grizzlies.
They average 9.7 of them per game, which is .8 more than second place.
Steals are particularly great for Memphis because it loves to run.
Ja Morant is known for being a maestro in transition where he uses his speed to race down the court.
Morant is probably most dangerous when he gets downhill and, in transition, it is easier to find opportunities to attack the basket downhill since the opposing defenders are struggling to get into position.
Turnovers are great for the "over" in a game like this because they contribute to easy baskets.
Transition basketball will continue to be particularly important in this series' results.
During the regular season, the Grizzlies executed plays in transition with the highest frequency.
Minnesota is vulnerable in this area. It allowed the third-most points in transition per game.
Given this large data sample showing how Memphis' strength in transition matches up with Minnesota's weakness in defending transition basketball, we should expect the Grizzlies to have another tremendous advantage in Game 3.
Waiting
One really can't complain about Memphis' offense.
After scoring 117 points in Game 1, the Grizzlies amassed 124 in Game 2.
It seems clear that the Grizzly offense is too potent for Minnesota's defense. Two games have shown that the Timberwolves lack answers.
I think that Memphis can do even better in the scoring department.
I'm quite surprised that De'Anthony Melton hasn't been more productive.
Melton is a big reason for Memphis' success when Morant is off the court -- the Grizzlies even had an excellent record in games that Morant missed.
Melton ably attacks the basket while adding points as a catch-and-shoot threat from behind the arc.
He can do a lot more in Game 3.
Three-Pointers
Both teams are slated to perform more strongly from behind the arc.
Minnesota is very much a volume shooting three-point team. They attempt the most threes per game.
So much of what they do depends on their ability to knock down threes.
Driving the basketball, executing pick-and-rolls, getting to the free throw line. These are all things that they do better when they're making threes.
In Game 2, though, their conversion rate from three was shockingly poor.
It's easy to want to give credit to the Grizzly perimeter defense for its rotations.
Memphis' improved perimeter defense did contribute somewhat to its victory.
But Memphis is not responsible for Minnesota's conversion rate on three-point attempts when no defender is in the vicinity to contest them.
The Timberwolves attempted 21 wide open threes, threes where the nearest defender is six feet or further from the shooter.
Minnesota literally only made five of them. Especially at home, Minnesota will shoot more efficiently from deep.
But so will the Grizzlies: in Game 2, they converted two of 17 open three-point attempts, which, again, is a surprisingly poor conversion rate.
Among other things, more Grizzly threes will help open up the lane for Morant so that he can drive and attack the basket or find teammates in the arc.
The Verdict
Memphis will cover the spread with its successful interior defense, its supremacy in transition, and Morant's versatility in the half-court offense.
The game will go "over" as Memphis' offense remains unstoppable and Minnesota makes more threes.
Best Bet: Parlay Grizzlies -2 at -110 & Over 236.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline
