Maybe Not

[tuck321]

What I am seeing is the Spurs opened 6.5 favorites and it went down to 6 where it is sitting. So far i have seen 2 posters listing the Spurs as a strong bet. Maybe not.
Just as a spot it stinks. This will be the 9th game for the Spurs without 2 days off in 15 days. I watched the Suns at Spurs. It was a very draining game. Duncan was in steady contact with Shaq. He wound up with 15 rebounds but i wonder if he could stand up very well the next day. Parker beat Nash but it was far from easy. Nash went 10 of 22 with 11 asts. Remember the opening number was 6.5 and it was moved down. The Spurs play the Lakers at home on TNT Thursday.
The last time the Spurs played the Bobcats they won 86-84. The Bobcats were a missed 3 pointer away from winning the game. To be fair in that game the Spurs had a game at home the next day which hindered them but i would have to say they also had Manu. I would also say the Bobcats are far better now then than.
The Bobcats had 2 days off on the 4th and 5th and the 8th and 9th. They have won 6 in a row. Recently they took Orlando at Orlando to OT losing by 5. Earlier at the Lakers, they took them to OT and then won. This season they are 13 of 24 against the West. This is a rare moment where the Spurs do not automaticly have the best Coach. They could lose this game. It would help them a lot if Gooden could play but so far I believe he is unavailable and would be limited anyway first game. Bobcats are loaded with shooters now and the last 2 times Parker faced Felton it has been a very tight match. Bobcats also have 2 days off after this game so Brown can use his currently deep team any way he wants a liberty Pop does not have. Remember something. Spurs have lost 3 of their last 6 games. Forget just the spread here the Spurs could lose this game straight up. Valdamir, Bell, Diaw and Diop have all played for top Western teams and everone on this team is buying in to working hard for Brown.
This will definitely be points and ML here.

 

[SF_capper]

agreed on this one. 2 days rest surrounding this game for charlotte thus can expect great effort which may not be able to be said about SA. LA coming to town as well

 

[SF_capper]

i think the best question is whether this line goes up or down?

 

[tuck321]

No real idea. Locked in 6.5 at 5 dimes for a unit and will wait for tomorrow. If it goes up will add more as well as ml. Only would slow even a little if Gooden is playing. And honestly would add even then.
Just looking at match ups and the extent of fatigue i suspect Duncan is feeling here hard to find a lot of plus match ups. Parker is a great point guard but not as much playing someone good who is younger and better rested than him.

 

[SF_capper]

cant imagine bell and diaw especially like SA either. Meka should make Duncan work and I dont think SA will be too excited with Wallace running thru the lane all game at them full force.

 

[tuck321]

Few points the first half. That will mostly be ml. These 2 know the game of cat and mouse. Spurs are not going to try and muscle this game playing against a real coach. Maybe should not say that as Sloan is not chump change and they play full tilt against him but Brown and Pop are a step higher and with a game in 2 days against the Lakers Pops has to want to conserve against a team with much better rest.

 

[lungster]

i definitely think char will give spurs a run for their money. they play tough defense and they have the inside presence that will slow down a fatigued duncan

 

[SportsNut]

i think the best question is whether this line goes up or down?

Doubt it goes up . Books know the situations and they could have opened this above 7 IMO. We could get a push but chances are it hangs bewteen 5.5 and 6.5 IMO..

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Charlotte has put a number of Over results recently (4-1 L5), anyone unsuspecting could quickly forget how easily the Cats games can total high-160s/low-170s with ease. It goes without saying that Spurs games can do the same.

 

[Satyr]

My thoughts and contribution to this thread

last 3 seasons with Lakers on deck, the Spurs are:

6-3 SU
5-4 ATS

in their wins they failed to cover once.

01/23/09 New Jersey W 94-91 Regular Season L -11.5
01/11/09 Orlando L 98-105 Regular Season L -3
04/11/08 Oklahoma City W 95-74 Regular Season W -15.5 U 182 (I would disregard this game as a serious lookahead since it was the end of regular season and Spurs did not care that much going into LA as 8 point dogs and losing by 21. They saved it all for the playoffs (which eventually they ended up getting eliminated from by the Lakers in the Conference finals)
01/21/08 @ Charlotte W 95-86 Regular Season W -6.5
(Richardson 5/18 FG, Gerald Wallace 5/18 FG, Charlotte 2/14 from 3pt land, Ginobili 16 points)
12/11/07 @ Golden State L 84-96 Regular Season L 2.5
11/11/07 Milwaukee W 113-88 Regular Season W -10.5 (no excuses here, they steamrolled them)
01/26/07 Memphis W 112-96 Regular Season W -14
01/15/07 @ Chicago L 87-99 Regular Season L -3.5
12/08/06 L.A. Clippers W 111-82 Regular Season W -8


I love what Tuck said about extended fatigue, this is basically a sandwich game between two emotional encounters.

Pretty sure Bell and Diaw are very poised in front of this game, not sure if this works both ways.

No Manu helps the issue big time.


downsides:
this line has already seen adjustments, and this is a huge deal if you ask me. As SN said, we could have (and normally would) see an 8,5 or even 9 here, Spurs at home against a 28-35 team which is also 10-20 on the road and does not have a tendency of covering against powerhouse teams on the road.

We have 6-6,5, depending on the book. Right now it's midway through 6 and 6,5. Oh it's adjusted.

More downsides:
Charlotte, and I mean THIS Charlotte, with Bell, Diaw and Brown, opened as 5 point dogs at home to SA. They lost by 2. SA was pretty disinterested in a blowout, they did almost lose but have in mind Parker and Manu combined for 7/22 from the floor that game, SA shot 40.8%, CHA shot 36.2%.

Another downside is: the Bobcats have not faced any teams in SA class during their 6 game W streak. They did beat them all and winning at MSG is not a puny deal, also beating ATL and CHI at home is solid, but both of those teams are highly prone to losing outside their arenas. Beat LAC on the road, beat GSW on the road, beat SAC on the road. This 3 game W road streak is, you'd agree, as bogus as it gets. And they were only favored by 3, dogged by 2 (at GSW) and favored by 1 at LAC. Safe to say we missed the boat (well at least I did) there.

Prior to that lost in PHO by 10 as 7 point dogs and
lost @ HOU by 21 as 6 point dogs, l
ost to ORL at home, 80-92.

Going back even more they covered in Miami as they lost by 4 (they were 8 point dogs in Miami) they were without Wallace and Bell though. Before that
lost @ Utah by 19,
@ Denver by 11,
@ Portland by 14
beat the Lakers in THAT game, 117:110 in OT.



You can't have it all. Plenty of clashing parameters, I'd say I would still lean CHA, not sure if I pull the trigger as I still have a lot of checking to do and need some time to process all this.

Not sure where I ended up, just a small caveat emptor for everyone here.

GL

 

[tuck321]

After Wallace went down in the LA game the team went into shock and just shut down for a while plus you had a lot of the Western teams really focusing on them because the had beaten LA at LA.
Would never confuse the Bobcats with a great team but their rebounding has been getting very consistent and when Brown complains about mistakes those mistakes vanish. Its a difference in Mentality now. Diaw and Bel in particular having been through the wars in San Antonio makes a big difference. Agree though seeing this drop to 5 has me worried. Do not like being linked with a big popular dog but not sure that is what has happened.

 

[sportjunky]

seems like a reverse line move rather than the public pounding the line down.

 

[boredlife]

SportJunkie is correct. This isn't the public beating down the
line. These are sharps. 79/21 Spurs volume.

I had this game at Spurs -8, so I thought I had value even at 6.5. Now its 5 !! If the public had beaten this down, who cares, I'll gladly go against. However this move has me spooked, so its either Bobcats or pass for me.

 

[edou1x]

concerning the DD line between CLE and LAC, the home DD dog during the second half of the season are just 26% ATS instead of being 61% during the first half.

 

[Blue_Chip]

I hope you're right, tuck, because my Hornets need as many Spurs and Rockets losses down the stretch as possible.

 

[tuck321]

Hope I am right too. Will simply say this about the play. Last 20 home games for Spurs if you took the road team plus 6.5 how would you do? Answer 10-10. You would be cashing with some big name teams but also the Grizz, Bucks, Nets, Suns, Sixers and Minnesota so its not actually an amazing thing to happen.