5-7-21 edition
I am back, this time not nearly the value against the Knicks. Clearly after last game they were over matched as I thought and EXPECTED they would be. I expect another cover by the favorites here. They line has elevated a bit but still in my opinion solid play until I see the Knicks show they are worthy.
Suns-7 1 unit, and no alt line, . Overnight I did grab some -6 but since -7 is where it sits now I still recommend this play and line.
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Play #2
Pelicans+9.
Philly has been pretty hot in its last 6 games= 5 cashes. Their last game against the Rockets is the concern for me. Since April specifically teams playing on their home court after beating the Rockets by 15+ the previous game, and having 4+ more season wins on the year are 0-3 ATS last 3. Sure its a tiny sample but the Rockets are really bad now and I think after these blowouts the lines after the books get killed the lines become a bit elevated. This is something I have won with the last 2 games and I will stick with it. Being that Philly has covered 5 of 6 I will take the big line and hope to continue catching an elevated line after playing A Rockets team that has folded the tent.
link here>>>>
https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=po:team+=+Rockets+and+date+>+20210405+and+p:margin+>15+and+(t:wins+-+o:wins)>4&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
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Play 3 1 unit Nuggets +155
Really difficult to bet against the Jazz at home, but the Nuggets have done really well on the road when underdogs of more than +2. The ROI supports this play and I like the opportunity.
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Play 4 Lakers +8 1 units and .2 unit money line
Portland is on fire blowing away teams against the spread in their last 6 games 5 cashes and 4 of those covers by more then 10 points against the line. All of those games were on the road. Many successful bettors in my history have advised me to avoid home teams in their first home game after a successful road trip. This certainly qualifies here. I believe this line to be elevated be cause of the recent success the Blazers are having, and I just dont think another 10 point ats margin is going to happen again tonight. Lakers are off a blowout loss which historically finds this play with a high ROI.
here>>>>
https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=t:team+=+Lakers+and+date+>=+20080401+and+AD+and+p:margin<-18++and+line>1+and+line<14&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
and more recently here >>>>>
in this last example they have even won STRAIGHT UP with huge point spreads of :
+7.5 win
+8 loss
+8.5 win
+9 win
+10 win
+10.5 win
+13 loss
thats 5-2 at these huge prices. I know the Lakers have been injured but I did look at 1 injury report and it said Davis is probable and Lebron is questionable. Sure is Lebron plays I have a better chance, but I have a nice line here and a team that does well in this spot against a team that probably finds another blowout difficult. If I get word on Lebron later in the day even on the line move according to the good news I will increase my confidence and wager size.
thats all for today, best wishes to all
