MAY BASES

[mrpickem]

It was a rough month for me, with most of the damage being done over last 14 days. I am still adjusting metrics and trying to find the elusive sweet spot after sustaining substantial losses the past 2 years and 3 of last 4. It appears I'm well on my way to another piss-poor effort, although not for lack of trying. Fortunately I'm secure and the money's not that important for me. The entertainment value has become paramount, along with trying to exercise my noodle since I've advanced in age well into senior status. Always make your own selections, only bet what you can afford to lose and if you consider my picks at all...the fade may be the way to go!

THU 5/1

• 4/2.99 PIT -134
• 3/2.86 PIT u7½ -105
• 3/2.03 NYM -148
• 3/4.35 NYM -1½ +145
• 3/2.61 NYM u8 -115
• 3/4.56 WAS +152
• 3/2.31 WAS +1½ -130
• 3/2.61 WAS o9½ -115
• 2/4.32 COL +216
• 2/1.82 COL +1½ -110
• 3/2.61 MIN o9 -115
• 4/2.62 TEX -153
• 3/2.92 TOR u8½ -103
• 3/3.00 LAA u8 +100
• 4/6.32 CHW +158

randoms...

• After a full month of play is in the books, it looks like the best ball is being played on the left coast. LAD, SD, and SF have 3 of the 4 best records so far. SD & SF rank 1-2 in best bet so far. SEA is 14-4 since APR09 after a 4-8 start to claim spot as the hottest team going. Only the Mets from the east break into the top echelon so far. DET & CHC have both performed well and represent the only other strong performers away from the west. Notable recent Cy Young winners have shown considerable drop-offs including Nola, Verlander & Gallen.
• Streaks: LAD 5, (SEA, PHI) 4, (LAA, MIA) -5
• LIVELY(CLE) 12-4 @HOME L365 DAYS
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: REA(CHC) 3-0, ABBOTT(CIN) 3-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: FREELAND 0-6
  • CHALK 273-164 +4.5% ROI
  • @HOME 276-180 +8.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 199-100 +9.5%

 

[mrpickem]

SPB=STRIKES PER BALL​

WOW, MIAMI GAMES HAVE CASHED OVER THE TOTAL IN 15 OF LAST 18

 

[mrpickem]

This season has started quite differently than seasons past...

• Considering only March/April games since 2018:
• Home teams are winning at 60.5% clip showing a profit of 8.3% ROI. Visitors had shown profit every year except one(2022) which was basically even.
  
• Favorites are off to a good starts as well, 62.5% winners at +4.5% ROI. Oddly the trend has been every 3 years the chalk has been the way with 2018 (63.4% / 4.6% ROI) and 2022 (63.1% / 3.6% ROI) both profitable for favorites while only 2021 was profitable for dogs.
• Home favorites are and amazing 199-100 66.7% for 9.5% ROI, far and away the best start. The home chalk did show slight profit in 2019 and 2022, but nothing close to excellent start this year.
• Totals when lined at 9 or more used to be easy bet to the over, but the past 4 years have trended to playing the under in such situations, not by that much lately, but the unders have still hit 53.7% for +1.7% ROI for a small profit this year. Not much otherwise trend-worthy on totals

 

[mrpickem]

2025: [262-289 -181.13u]
LAST: [7-8 -1.14u]

FRI 5/2

• 4/2.58 CIN -155
• 3/2.73 CIN u8½ -110
• 4/5.48 PIT +137
• 3/1.96 LAD -153
• 3/3.00 LAD -1½ +100
• 3/2.83 MIL u8½ -106
• 4/3.57 NYM -112
• 3/3.00 STL u7½ +100
• 5/2.13 SF -235
• 3/2.52 SF -1½ -119
• 3/2.61 SF u8 -115
• 3/2.48 KAN o9 -121
• 2/4.10 CHW +205
• 3/3.60 CHW +1½ +120
• 5/7.85 LAA +157
• 3/2.73 MIA u9 -110

​

randoms...

Streaks: LAD 5 SEA 4, LAA -6, MIA -5​

COL 28-92 L120 AWAY​

COL 13-40 L53 VS SF​

SO FAR IN 2025:​

• UNDEFEATED STARTERS: RAY(SF) 6-0, FRIED(NYY) 6-0
• NO WIN STARTERS: CANNON(CHW) 0-5
• CHALK 274-174 +2.3% ROI
• @HOME 280-187 +7.1%
• CHALK @HOME 199-106 +7.3%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

My dude never misses a day in any season! I honestly don’t know what I did last 2 weeks, I just started pricing and following scores this week then had an issue and had to wait an extra day. I figured it was more for nba but soon as I opened a fangraphs article on pitch selection and pitch shaping it was bases time!

 

[mrpickem]

LAST 30 DAYS AT SITE WHERE PLAYING TODAY (HOME OR AWAY)

Not that surprising the A's are a solid road team since realistically all their games are roadies.

 

[mrpickem]

My dude never misses a day in any season! I honestly don’t know what I did last 2 weeks, I just started pricing and following scores this week then had an issue and had to wait an extra day. I figured it was more for NBA but soon as I opened a fangraphs article on pitch selection and pitch shaping it was bases time!

NBA is one thing I just can't do, haven't played the association for over 10 years. Well may a play or two per year...none so far this year.

I play every day...Football, MLB, UFC, Hoops and select spots on boxing and golf. No longer play NASCAR, Tennis or NBA.

 

[2daBank]

NBA is one thing I just can't do, haven't played the association for over 10 years. Well may a play or two per year...none so far this year.

I play every day...Football, MLB, UFC, Hoops and select spots on boxing and golf. No longer play NASCAR, Tennis or NBA.

You are a beast!!
I always have at least 1-2 hiatuses throughout year and a few rando days I just miss cause life shit. It amazes the hell out of me everytime I jump back you havnt missed a day with the charts and info! Always appreciate your threads!!

NBA just playoffs for me and less plays now than 10 years ago but still find some plays or series in playoffs I really like. Used to bet tennis majors like huge square but I don’t know anyone anymore. You post ufc? I remember back in day I had friends signing up for those clubs and fighting locally but everytime I asked them to give me plays they got me killed! lol.

There no way your last 2 weeks isn’t bout to drastically change! May/june till all star game is generally a fantastic time! Only days i tend to miss in this 2 month stretch is back when I regrettably had a life and was forced to go out and have fun and Sun over memorial and 4th of July weekends and I might miss 2 days, 1 if my reception holds up! Appreciate your insane consistency and of course the fact you post useful information daily!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Teams off a dog win lined over +175 and a dog again over +175 have won only20% (52-207) over the last 7 years. (4-19 since 6/1/24)

If you faded them every time for a hundy, you'd be up $6736 or +9.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [17-13 +9.39u]
LAST: [10-5-1 +10.53u]

SAT 5/3

• 5/1.88 SF -266
• 3/2.73 COL o8 -110
• 4/4.12 PIT +103
• 3/3.33 ARI +111
• 4/2.23 ARI +1½ -179
• 6/5.61 CIN u8½ -107
• 3/2.94 MIL -102
• 4/2.29 MIL +1½ -175
• 2/3.40 TAM +170
• 3/2.50 TAM +1½ -120
• 3/2.73 NYY u9½ -110
• 5/2.07 HOU -242
• 4/2.88 HOU -1½ -139
• 4/4.04 MIN +101
• 4/5.40 SEA -1½ +135
• 5/4.35 BAL u9 -115
• 4/2.42 DET -165
• 5/4.35 MIA -115
• 5/5.00 MIA u8 +100

​

randoms...

• Streaks: LAD 6, SEA 5, LAA -7, MIA -6, (TAM, MIN) -4
• PFAADT 5-1 +46.7% ROI THIS SEASON w/2.78 / 1.12 / 29:6
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: QUINTANA(MIL) 4-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: N0NE
  • CHALK 288-175 +3.9% ROI (YESTERDAY 14-1)
  • @HOME 288-194 +7.2%
  • CHALK @HOME 206-106 +8.4%

 

[2daBank]

may already looking a fuck of a lot better than 2 weeks of rain to finish april.

Like your card again.

 

[2daBank]

Oh apparently I shouldn’t bet nba either. Lol

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [26-22 +0.82u]
LAST: [9-9 -8.57u]

SUN 5/4

• 6/5.71 PIT u8½ -105
• 4/3.77 CHC -106
• 5/5.00 MIL u7½ +100
• 3/4.29 COL +1½ +143
• 4/4.32 WAS +108
• 5/2.62 WAS +1½ -191
• 4/5.56 ATL +139
• 3/3.09 ATL u9 +103
• 4/2.39 NYY -168
• 3/2.73 NYY u9 -110
• 5/2.32 BOS -215
• 3/3.15 BOS u8 +105
• 4/4.09 CLE +102
• 5/2.38 CLE +1½ -210
• 4/7.56 CHW +189
• 7/6.74 TEX u8 -104
• 3/1.85 DET -162
• 3/3.00 DET -1½ +100
• 5/4.76 DET u8½ -105

randoms...

• Streaks: LAD 7, SEA 6, SD 4, TEX -4
• SEA STAYS HOT, NOW #3 ON THE YEAR IN PROFIT
• IMANAGA 10-3 +46.6% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• CROCHET 4-12 @HOME L365 DAYS
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: NONE
  • NO WIN STARTERS: G MARQUEZ 0-6, PADDACK 0-6
  • CHALK 294-183 +2.9% ROI (YESTERDAY 14-1)
  • @HOME 292-204 +5.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 209-113 +6.8%

 

[mrpickem]

adds...

• 4/4.68 G1-STL +117
• 6/9.60 TAM +160
• 2.14/1 BOS -214
• 4/2.48 TEX -161

Missed a couple, plus small add on BOS and flipping off NYY

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

... You post ufc? I remember back in day I had friends signing up for those clubs and fighting locally but everytime I asked them to give me plays they got me killed! lol.

Had solid day in UFC yesterday, I always post...missed like 2 cards in 3 years, basically when I had no fight I liked

Yesterday

I meant to reply sooner but slipped my mind

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [40-31 +26.62u]
LAST: [14-9 +25.80u]

5/5 MON

• 3/3.15 LAD o9½ +105
• 4/2.99 ATL -134
• 3/2.26 STL -133
• 3/2.73 STL u8½ -110
• 3/2.73 ARI u9½ -110
• 5/2.24 KAN -223
• 4/3.67 SEA -109
• 3/2.73 SAC u9 -110
• 3/2.50 WAS u9 -120
• 4/5.12 SD +128

randoms...

• Streaks: SD 5, PIT -4
• DONT LOOK NOW, BUT ROYOS ON FIRE 10-2 +64% ROI L14 DAYS
• NYM UNDERS 8-0 IN L8 AS DOGS
• ARI 10-2 L12 STARTS BY NELSON
• BOYD(CHC) 7-2 +44.6% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• PIVETTA 5-1 +56% ROI w/1.78/0.82/39:8 IN 2025
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 298-192 +1.6% ROI
  • @HOME 299-213 +4.9%
  • CHALK @HOME 211-117 +5.7%

 

[mrpickem]

​

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [48-34 +35.10u]
LAST: [8-3-1 +8.48u]

5/6 TUE

• 2/4.88 MIA +244
• 3/2.86 MIA u9½ -105
• 5/2.55 ATL -196
• 3/2.73 ATL u8 -110
• 4/2.86 CHC -140
• 3/2.34 PIT -128
• 3/4.29 PIT -1½ +143
• 5/4.76 ARI u9 -105
• 5/2.33 KAN -215
• 6/5.45 KAN u8½ -110
• 4/5.80 BAL +145
• 3/2.86 MIN u8½ -105
• 3/2.86 TOR o9 -105
• 3/2.60 SAC u10 -116
• 4/4.28 TAM +107
• 3/3.00 PHI o8 +100
• 3/3.15 NYY u8 +105
• 5/2.87 DET -174

​

randoms...

• Streaks: SD 6, PIT -5
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 11-2 +62% ROI L15 DAYS
• SALE(ATL) 11-2 +27% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.78 WHIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
• UNDEFEATED STARTERS: JOBE 5-0, (REA & ABBOTT) 4-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: NONE
  • CHALK 304-195 +1.8% ROI
  • @HOME 305-216 +5.1%
  • CHALK @HOME 216-119 +6%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [56-41 +45.13u]
LAST: [10-7-1 +10.01u]

5/7 WED

• 4/6.28 PIT +157
• 3/2.14 PIT +1½ -140
• 7/6.30 STL u7½ -111
• 4/2.94 CHC -136
• 4/3.63 CHC u7 -110
• 4/5.40 NYM -1½ +135
• 4/3.48 ARI u9 -115
• 5/2.33 LAD -215
• 5/3.57 LAD -1½ -140
• 5/4.35 ATL u8 -115
• 5/4.76 SAC u9 -105
• 4/4.20 TEX o9½ +105
• 2/4.00 CHW +200
• 3/2.73 CHW +1½ -110
• 5/4.55 MIN u9½ -110
• 4/3.48 TOR o8½ -115
• 4/5.00 CLE -1½ -125
• 4/5.72 HOU -1½ +143
• 4/3.08 MIL u8 -130
• 4/5.52 PHI -1½ +138
• 4/3.48 PHI o8 -115
• 5/7.95 SD +159
• 4/3.48 NYY u8 -115

randoms...

• Streaks: (KAN, STL) 4, CIN -4, PIT -6
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 12-2 +61% ROI L15 DAYS
• MORTON 3-9 AWAY -57% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• MORTON 0-7 w/9.76 / 2.20 / 26:21 THIS YEAR
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: (RAY, FRIED) 7-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: MORTON(BAL) 0-5
  • CHALK 313-201 +1% ROI
  • @HOME 315-221 +5.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 222-121 +6.5%

DOYERS BY FAR THE BEST IN LEAGUE AFTER A LOSS, WINNING 66% FOR +7.6% ROI & +16.1% ROI ON RL 2023-2025
PHI NEXT BEST WINNING ONLY 57.5%

 

[2daBank]

I see May turning around nicely!!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [71-49 +77.87u]
LAST: [15-8 +32.74u]

5/8 THU

• 3/1.96 LAD -153
• 3/2.97 LAD -1½ -101
• 4/4.00 LAD o8½ +100
• 4/2.78 MIN -144
• 5/4.59 MIN u8 -109
• 4/3.33 BOS u9½ -120
• 2/4.48 CHW +224
• 3/3.00 CHW +1½ +100
• 4/3.81 KAN u8 -105
• 3/2.47 TOR -122
• 3/4.14 TOR -1½ +138
• 3/2.27 PHI -132
• 3/3.99 PHI -1½ +133
• 4/3.81 TAM u8½ -105

randoms...

• Streaks: (KAN, STL) 5, MIN 4, (BAL, TOR, COL) -4, PIT -7
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 12-2 +61% ROI L15 DAYS
• PFAADT(ARI)12-4 +28% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• MARTIN(CHW) 0-7 AWAY L365 DAYS
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: BELLO(BOS) 3-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: NONE
  • CHALK 325-204 +2.7% ROI
  • @HOME 321-230 +5.1%
  • CHALK @HOME 227-123 +6.7%

 

[mrpickem]

I'm still battling back from a horrendous April but May has started out pretty good.




Totals have been coming through for me lately, mostly unders.

Crazy stat, MLB season by day of week, Wednesdays are beautiful while the weekends suck

Units by day of week








Throwback Pamela above, here's current Pam from new movie "Naked Gun" coming out in June

 

[inZane]

I'm still battling back from a horrendous April but May has started out pretty good.

View attachment 96662

View attachment 96663
Totals have been coming through for me lately, mostly unders.

Crazy stat, MLB season by day of week, Wednesdays are beautiful while the weekends suck

Units by day of week
View attachment 96664

View attachment 96665
View attachment 96666
View attachment 96667
View attachment 96669
View attachment 96668

Throwback Pamela above, here's current Pam from new movie "Naked Gun" coming out in June

View attachment 96670

Appreciate your posts Mr. P.

Yeah, Sundays suck for me too...

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [77-57 +71.45u]
LAST: [6-8 -6.42u]

5/9 FRI

• 3/2.26 ATL -133
• 3/3.60 ATL -1½ +120
• 4/3.35 ATL o8½ -119
• 4/3.92 STL -102
• 4/3.48 NYM u8 -115
• 4/4.40 COL u11 +110
• 3/2.68 LAD -112
• 3/3.84 LAD -1½ +128
• 4/4.00 LAD o10 +100
• 6/2.44 DET -246
• 4/4.00 DET u7½ +100
• 5/5.10 KAN +102
• 4/3.61 KAN u9 -111
• 5/6.45 LAA +129
• 3/2.21 NYY -136
• 3/3.30 NYY -1½ +110
• 4/3.56 NYY o10½ -112
• 3/3.03 TAM +101
• 2/3.80 TAM -1½ +190
• 5/4.11 TAM u9½ -122
• 3/2.61 PHI -115
• 3/4.35 PHI -1½ +145
• 4/3.45 PHI o7½ -116
• 5/3.62 MIA -138
• 3/3.60 MIA -1½ +120
• 3/2.83 MIN -106
• 2/3.54 MIN -1½ +177
• 5/3.03 HOU -165

randoms...

• MODEL: DET, KAN, HOU (15-3 LAST 7 DAYS)
• Streaks: KAN 6 (MIN, STL) 5, DET 4, CHW -4, BAL -5, COL -6, PIT -7
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 13-2 +60% ROI L15 DAYS
• WILLIAMS(CLE) 2-9 -68.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• CORBIN(TEX) 3-11 -51% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• FEDDE(STL) 4-13 -46.2% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 333-205 +3.4% ROI
  • @HOME 326-234 +5.2%
  • CHALK @HOME 231-123 +7.3%

 

[B.A.R.]

Heckuva May you have going on!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

I told you may would be the start of your turn around! More good things go come bro, you a good capper

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [93-69 +83.65u]
LAST: [16-12 +12.20u]

5/10 SAT

• 5/6.75 PIT +135
• 3/3.00 WAS +100
• 3/1.88 WAS +1½ -160
• 4/3.77 COL u11½ -106
• 4/5.72 LAD -1½ +143
• 4/4.20 ARI u9 +105
• 5/4.37 SAC u10 -114
• 6/5.45 DET u7½ -110
• 4/3.70 BOS -108
• 6/5.00 KAN u7½ -120
• 4/5.24 LAA +131
• 4/3.64 BAL o9½ -110
• 4/4.48 TOR +112
• 4/4.76 MIL +119
• 4/3.20 MIL o9 -125
• 5/4.35 CLE u8 -115
• 4/3.92 CHW -102
• 4/3.41 CHW u8½ -117
• 3/3.60 CIN +120
• 4/2.30 CIN +1½ -174
• 6/5.45 HOU u8 -110
• 4.08/4 MIN u7 -102

randoms...

• MODEL 3-0 AGAIN YEASTERDAY AND NOW 22-6 LAST 10 DAYS
• ROYOS ENFUEGO 16-2 +55.4% ROI SINCE 4/20
• Streaks: KAN 7, (MIN, STL) 6, DET 5, COL -7
• 2025 SEASON:
  • BAD START STARTERS: SMITH (CHW) 1-6 w/4.411 xFIP
  • CHALK 339-212 +2.9% ROI
  • @HOME 335-240 +5.4%
  • CHALK @HOME 234-125 +7.3%

 

[mrpickem]

AVG is batting average allowed, xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching...both these stats were added from FanGraphs and unfortunately all starters are not covered so that's why you see "na" in several spots.



Giants and Marlins has cashed over the total in 21 of 25 road games combined in the last 30 days! The M's have went over in 8 of 9 home games in the same 30 days.

On the year, the best over teams: MIA 25-12, CHC 24-14 & SEA 22-13 & best under teams: TEX 12-27, KAN 13-26 & MIN 13-23





Does anyone believe the Tigers are the 2nd best team? My model does.

...but the Tigs have been hot...no denying that. 12-3 in L16 and after starting 2-4 they've went 24-9 +25.8% ROI since 4/2(Best in the bigs)

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [101-82 +56.58u]
LAST: [8-13-1 -27.07u]

Not a good night to put it bluntly, but it could have been much worse. When I checked the board at 930pm I hadn't posted a win yet and was 0-10-1 After that I was lucky enough to go 8-3 the rest of the nite and avert a total disaster. Now onto Sunday which has been my worse day of the week all year, is a frightful thought

Season by day of week:


5/11 SUN

• 3/3.66 CHC +122
• 3/1.58 CHC +1½ -190
• 3/2.03 WAS -148
• 3/4.35 WAS -1½ +145
• 4/3.81 WAS u8½ -105
• 4/7.56 PIT +189
• 5/4.27 PIT u8½ -117
• 4/4.00 SD o11½ +100
• 4/3.88 LAD -103
• 5/2.27 TEX +1½ -220
• 5/4.00 KAN -125
• 4/3.64 BOS o8½ -110
• 5/6.10 SAC +122
• 4/4.00 SAC u10 +100
• 4/4.00 LAA u9 +100
• 3/4.86 TOR +162
• 4/3.43 SEA u8½ -117
• 6/6.30 TAM u8½ +105
• 6/6.00 MIN u8 +100
• 5/5.00 CHW u8 +100
• 4/5.28 CIN +132
• 4/6.20 CLE +155
• 4/3.81 CLE u7½ -105

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: (MIN, STL) 7, WAS -4, COL -8
• MODEL: KAN, SAC, MIN (1-1 YESTERDAY AND 23-6 LAST 10 DAYS)
• UNDER 12-5-1 IN WAS L18 AS FAV
• UNDER 6-1-1 IN Mikolas' L8 STARTS VS WAS
• KAN 17-5 L22 AS FAV
• KAN 16-5 L21 ON GRASS
• KAN 16-5 L21 @HOME
• CANNING(NYM) 12-4 +53% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• EFLIN(BAL) 11-4 +41% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  
  • GOOD START STARTERS: PIVETA(SD) 6-1 w/2.01/0.94
  • BAD START STARTERS: MARQUEZ(COL) 0-7 w/9.90/1.97 & 5.278 xFIP
  • CHALK 346-219 +2.6% ROI
  • @HOME 340-250 +4.5%
  • CHALK @HOME 236-129 +6.6%

 

[mrpickem]

​

 

[Stash]

This is probably way to simple, but I can't figure out who SAC is in the model plays. Thanks for helping me out.

 

[mrpickem]

This is probably way to simple, but I can't figure out who SAC is in the model plays. Thanks for helping me out.

Athletics
I struggled with what to call them but since they play in Sacramento...

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [111-95 +50.34u]
LAST: [10-13 -6.24u]

5/12 MON

• 5/7.75 STL +155
• 4/4.00 PHI u8 +100
• 5/6.90 PIT +138
• 5/7.65 WAS +153
• 4/4.20 ATL u8½ +105
• 3/6.90 MIA +230
• 4/3.81 CHC u8½ -105
• 5/5.00 SF u8 +100
• 5/4.50 DET u8½ -111
• 4/3.81 CLE u8 -105
• 5/2.42 SD -207

​

randoms...

• Streaks: (MIN, STL) 8, TOR 4, WAS -5
• MODEL: PIT, STL (1-2 SUNDAY / 22-6 L10 DAYS)
• SANCHEZ(PHI) 16-2 +39.3% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• PETERSON(NYM) 11-3 +39.4% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • GOOD START STARTERS:
    • JOBE(DET) 6-0 w/.250 AVG ALLOWED
    • SANCHEZ(6-1) w/.229 AVG ALLOWED & 3.020 xFIP
  • CHALK 353-227 +1.8% ROI
  • @HOME 346-259 +4.1%
  • CHALK @HOME 239-134 +5.8%

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7257700352802426158

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

Holy shit Sanchez. I knew he was good but team is 16-2 at home when he starts?!? Damn

 

[mrpickem]

Holy shit Sanchez. I knew he was good but team is 16-2 at home when he starts?!? Damn

Make it 16-3 now

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [117-100 +55.91u]
LAST: [6-5 +5.57u]

5/13 TUE

• 4/5.68 STL +142
• 3/1.88 STL +1½ -160
• 4/4.20 PHI u7½ +105
• 4/4.00 WAS +1½ +100
• 6/2.54 CHC -236
• 4/3.81 CHC u8½ -105
• 4/3.78 SF u7½ -106
• 3/3.45 MIN +115
• 4/2.23 MIN +1½ -179
• 4/3.60 TOR u8 -111
• 4/5.20 NYY -1½ +130
• 4/3.81 CLE u9 -105
• 4/7.08 CHW +177
• 4/4.20 CHW o9½ +105
• 2/4.10 COL +205
• 3/2.86 COL +1½ -105
• 5/4.55 TEX u8½ -110
• 3/5.55 LAA +185
• 3/2.40 LAA +1½ -125

randoms...

• Streaks: STL 9, MIN 8, TOR 4, (SF, SEA) -4, WAS -6
• MODEL: CHC (1-1 MONDAY & 20-7 L10 DAYS)
• WOO(SEA) 10-1 +54.6% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.82 WHIP
• BERRIOS(TOR) 12-4 +35.9% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • RAY(SF) 8-0 w/2.84/1.20/.194 AVG ALLOWED
  • FRIED(NYY) 8-0 w/1.04/0.91/.187 AVG
  • BELLO(BOS) 4-0 w/2.01/1.34/.228 AVG
  • FREELAND(COL) 1-7 w/6.41/1.65/.337 AVG
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 359-232 +1.6% ROI
  • @HOME 352-264 +3.9%
  • CHALK @HOME 243-137 +5.5%

 

[mrpickem]

...fwiw I bet different than most people in the fact that every regular bet is 4u risk whether fav or dog so if line is +150 it would be 4/6.00 and if -200 it would be 4/2.00...that puts more value on the dogs which I always have believed to be the key to win at bases. Therefore even though the model was 1-1 yesterday it showed a profit. Also of note is STL has been the hottest team over last 15 days at 10-3 +60% ROI and also have been by far the best bet for the model all year.

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [121-110 +38.89u]
LAST: [4-10-5 -17.02u]

5/14 WED

• 3/4.98 G1-STL +166
• 3/2.31 G1-STL +1½ -130
• 4/3.81 G1-PHI u8½ -105
• 4/3.88 ARI -103
• 4/3.81 SF u8 -105
• 4/3.64 NYM u8 -110
• 3/4.65 WAS +155
• 3/2.31 WAS +1½ -140
• 4/4.20 ATL u8½ +105
• 2/3.92 MIA +196
• 3/2.52 MIA +1½ -119
• 4/3.81 CHC u8 -105
• 6/6.60 SEA +110
• 7/7.00 SEA u8 +100
• 6/2.91 DET -206
• 4/4.92 KAN +123
• 4/4.00 HOU u8 +100
• 4/3.03 CLE -132
• 7/6.87 MIL u8 -102
• 4/1.90 CIN -210
• 4/3.81 CIN -1½ -105
• 4/3.81 TEX u9 -105
• 5/5.25 SD u8½ +105
• 5/2.03 LAD -246
• 3/2.50 LAD -1½ -120
• 5/5.25 G1-MIN +105
• 4/2.19 GI-MIN +1½ -185

randoms...

• Streaks: STL 9, MIN 8, Tex 4, WAS -7
• MODEL: SEA, DET, KAN, LAD, MIN (2-0 YESTERDAY AND 19-7 L10 DAYS)...note SAC was model play yesterday later in day when line and starter listed but not posted here.
• SKUBAL 11-4 +26% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.76 WHIP
• WEATHERS 4-0 +142.5% L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.83 WHIP
• FALTER 3-11 -44.6% L365 DAYS AWAY
• MARTIN(CHW) 0-8 -100% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • HOLMES 7-1 +44.7% ROI w/2.74/1.24 & 3.414 xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 6-2 +37.7% w/3.50/1.08/.229 AVG ALLOWED
  • MARTIN(CHW) 1-6 w/4.66/1.50/ 4.451 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 367-237 +1.5% ROI
  • @HOME 362-267 +4.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 251-140 +5.6%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

It’s crazy to see Seattle with so many overs, I guess after years of 2-1 games you get low totals so if you actually hit the ball a little the total is easily obtainable. Their team ops is 100 points better on the road and 3rd in the league at .788 compared to ,680 at home. Do they hit more overs on road or have they been going at equally high clip at home?

Gl today

 

[mrpickem]

It’s crazy to see Seattle with so many overs, I guess after years of 2-1 games you get low totals so if you actually hit the ball a little the total is easily obtainable. Their team ops is 100 points better on the road and 3rd in the league at .788 compared to ,680 at home. Do they hit more overs on road or have they been going at equally high clip at home?

Gl today

Yeah, and now the Rangers lead the league in unders when they used to be an over machine. Bases are wild nowadays...

 

[2daBank]

Yeah, and now the Rangers lead the league in unders when they used to be an over machine. Bases are wild nowadays...

Rangers lineup quickly went from scary to face to looking pretty soft after a few guys. I kinda missed the boat on rangers unders cause I noticed that bout the lineup but wasn’t just picking unders off like I should have been.

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [138-120 +56.87u]
LAST: [17-10 +17.98u]

5/15 FRI

• 2/3.68 WAS +184
• 3/2.86 WAS +1½ -105
• 4/3.45 ATL u9 -116
• 3/3.69 MIN +123
• 3/1.78 MIN +1½ -169
• 5/3.27 TOR -153
• 5/4.27 TOR u8½ -117
• 3/2.59 TEX -116
• 2/3.52 TEX -1½ +176
• 4/3.48 TEX u7½ -115
• 2/3.58 SAC +179
• 2/1.76 SAC +1½ -113
• 3.45/3 LAD u9½ -115

randoms...

• Streaks: MIN 10, Tex 5
• TWINS 10-GAME WIN STREAK IRONY...LAST SEASON THERE WAS ONLY ONE 10-GAME STREAK & IT WAS MIN, ALSO IN MAY WHERE THEY WON #11 & 12 BEFORE LOSING #13 ON 5/5/24
• TEAMS ON 10-GAME WIN STREAK 19-6 +34.7% ROI L7 YEARS (20-5 +47.5% ON RL)
• TEAMS ON 10-GAME WIN STREAK AS DOG 6-4 +38.1% ROI L7 YEARS (9-1 +46.8% ON RL)
• MODEL: CIN, TOR (3-2 YESTERDAY AND 18-8 +7.87u L10 DAYS)
• GAUSMAN HOME STARTS HAVE CASHED TO THE OVER 12-3 L365 DAYS
• LITTELL(TAM) 9-6 +35.1% L365 DAYS AWAY
• PADDACK 2-7 -53.8% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • BROWN(HOU) 6-2 +28.4% w/1.48/0.90/.180 AVG ALLOWED
  • MARTINEZ(CIN) 1-7 w/4.23/1.30/ 4.036 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 375-246 +0.7% ROI
  • @HOME 369-277 +3.2%
  • CHALK @HOME 258-149 +4.2%