MAY BASES

[mrpickem]

 

[Stash]

Did you update the model plays for today? Looks like those are yesterdays plays that are posted. Thank you for posting these.

 

[mrpickem]

Did you update the model plays for today? Looks like those are yesterdays plays that are posted. Thank you for posting these.

My bad, I forgot. Only 2..CIN & TOR
I stayed off Cincy since they been cold as ice

 

[2daBank]

It’s shockingly unbelievable to me cardinals are winning, that what happens when I jump ship on the team I’ve rooted for my whole life! Lol

 

[2daBank]

if chi sox play .500 ball like they have the past 2 weeks they a great freaking bet pretty much daily, I thought the reds lines for that series were insane seeing how reds once again appear to be the team everyone likes til the games start and they only a handful of games better than cws! How can a team like Cincy be -200 vs anyone? But of course this is hindsight I didn’t play a game in that series cause I don’t really like those big money lines, there no chance I’m ever laying -200 or more on a outcome of 1 mlb game so the dog always appealing to me but think it prob makes my capping on those somewhat biased.

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [143-128 +47.41u]
LAST: [5-8 -9.46u]

5/16 FRI

• 4.20/2 PHI -210
• 3/2.86 PHI -1½ -105
• 4/3.81 PHI u8½ -105
• 4/5.52 DET -1½ +138
• 5/2.97 TEX -168
• 5/4.51 TEX u8 -111
• 3/6.12 CHW +204
• 4/4.00 WAS +100
• 7/6.36 BAL u9 -110
• 4/3.64 NYY u9 -110
• 4/4.56 ATL +114
• 6/5.22 BOS u8 -115
• 5/3.47 KAN -144
• 4/5.92 KAN -1½ +148
• 4/4.00 STL o8½ +100
• 5/4.76 MIN -105
• 4/4.20 SD u8½ +105
• 2/5.18 LAA +259
• 3/3.90 LAA +1½ +130
• 5/3.05 SF -164
• 4/3.64 SAC o7 -110

randoms...

• Streaks: MIN 11, Tex 6
• MODEL: TEX, CHW, WAS, KAN, MIN, SF (1-1 YESTERDAY)
• CROCHET(BOS) 2-13 -78.7% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
  • SEARS(SAC) 6-2 +46.1% w/2.80/1.00/.222 AVG ALLOWED
  • FLAHERTY(DET) 1-7 w/4.61 / 1.24 / 3.328 xFIP
  • SMITH(CHW) 1-7 w/2.08 / 1.08 / 4.152 xFIP

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

It’s shockingly unbelievable to me cardinals are winning, that what happens when I jump ship on the team I’ve rooted for my whole life! Lol

...and they keep getting hotter, now 11-2 +74% ROI last 15 days and 25-20 overall for the 3rd best +12% ROI of all teams this year. They got me last night too

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [157-135 +74.78u]
LAST: [14-7 +27.37u]


My good numbers in May has been carried largely by totals...


5/17 SAT

• 6/2.35 PHI -255
• 6/5.56 ARI u9 -108
• 4/5.00 HOU +125
• 4/2.35 HOU +1½ -170
• 6/2.37 CHC -253
• 5/5.00 CHC u10 +100
• 5/7.25 WAS +145
• 4/3.81 BAL u10 -105
• 4/2.92 TAM -137
• 5/2.63 STL +1½ -190
• 4/3.48 STL o8½ -115
• 4/3.56 MIN -112
• 5/4.86 MIL u7½ -103
• 4/4.12 ATL +103
• 4/3.36 BOS u9½ -119
• 6/3.38 SD -177
• 2/2.36 SAC +118
• 3/1.71 SAC +1½ -175

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIN 12, DET 4, (BAL, BOS, COL) -4
• MODEL: TEX, CHW, WAS, KAN, MIN, SF (1-1 YESTERDAY)
• NOTE:ARI WAS MODEL PLAY AFTER PALMQUEST ANNOUNCED(ONE OF THE WORSE STARTERS ON ANY TEAM) BUT PLAY WASN'T POSTED AND ONLY ADDED .29u BECAUSE OF -344
• ANDERSON(LAA) 9-5 +60.4% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • CANNING(NYM) 7-1 +58.6% w/2.36/1.22/ 3.379 xFIP
  • ANDERSON(LAA) 6-2 +56.5% w/2.58/1.06/.187 AVG ALLOWED
  • PIVETTA(SD) 6-2 46.9% w/3.05/1.06/.205 AVG ALLOWED
  • MARQUIZ(COL) 1-7 w/8.27 / 1.70 / 5.193 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 386-255 +0.3% ROI
  • @HOME 380-287 +2.5%
  • CHALK @HOME 267-156 +3.4%

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

2025 action by team on ML


All MLB action by day of week 2025

Friday looking better after yesterday but SAT-SUN both equally suck ass!

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [165-144 +64.43u]
LAST: [8-9-1 -10.35u]

5/18 SUN

• 5/4.72 PIT -106
• 5/4.55 PHI u8 -110
• 6/1.94 ARI -309
• 3/1.88 ARI -1½ -160
• 5/4.81 ARI u9 -104
• 4/3.43 TEX u8½ -117
• 6/6.30 TOR u8½ +105
• 4/4.00 BOS u9 +100
• 4/6.32 WAS +158
• 5/4.35 BAL u9½ -115
• 4/5.56 MIA +139
• 5/5.25 MIA u8½ +105
• 3/2.59 CIN -116
• 3/5.01 CIN -1½ +167
• 5/4.72 CIN u9 -106
• 5/5.00 MIL u7½ +100
• 4/3.81 KAN -105
• 5/4.35 KAN u8½ -115
• 4/3.85 CHW o8 -104
• 5/4.54 SF u8½ -110
• 3/6.66 LAA +222
• 4/3.81 LAD u9 -105
• 3/3.87 SEA +129
• 3/1.76 SEA +1½ -170
• 3.75/3 SD u7½ -125
• 5/7.90 NYM +158
• 7/7.00 NYY u8½ +100

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: MIN 13, (SAC, KAN) -4, BAL -5
• HOME FAVS OVER -200 56-15 +10% ROI AFTER LOSING FIRST 2 GAMES OF SERIES L7 YEARS (23-3 L2 YEARS)
• BERRIOS(TOR) 12-5 +27.9% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• QUANTRILL(MIA) 8-5 +45.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• BELLO(BOS) 10-4 +27.4% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• CANNON(CHW) 4-10 -13.2%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• SCHWELLER(ATL) 4-9 -41.6%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • JOBE(DET) 7-0 +96.6% ROI w/4.32 / 1.47 / 5.106 xFIP
  • REA(CHC) 5-1 +66.8% w/2.90 / 1.26 / 4.039 xFIP
  • WOO(SEA) 6-2 +43% w/2.84 / 0.89 / 3.544 xFIP
  • FRIED(NYY) 8-1 +36.9% w/1.11 / 0.94 / 3.543 xFIP
  • BELLO(BOS) 4-1 +43.7% w/2.33 / 1.41 / 4.636 xFIP
  • VERLANDER(SF) 3-6 -37.5% w/4.21 / 1.54 / 4.708 xFIP
  • CANNON(CHW) 1-6 w/4.21 -57.4% / 1.54 / 4.708 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 387-295 +1.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 272-162 +2.3%

 

[mrpickem]

Best teams on model plays so far. | ...and model plays by day of week(only Thursday a loser)

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [184-151 +114.89u]
LAST: [19-7-1 +50.46u]

5/19 MON

• 4/3.33 MIA u9 -120
• 4/1.61 PHI -248
• 3/1.76 PHI -1½ -170
• 4/3.64 PHI o10 -110
• 5/6.50 ARI +130
• 5/4.76 LAD u9½ -105
• 4/3.64 TAM u9 -110
• 4/3.64 SEA o8 -110
• 4/3.10 MIN -129
• 5/4.76 MIN u7½ -105
• 5/5.85 LAA +117
• 4/2.23 LAA +1½ -179
• 4/4.20 LAA o9½ +105
• 4/4.04 BAL +101
• 3/4.56 BAL -1½ +152
• 5/3.45 STL -145
• 4/4.00 SF u7 +100

randoms...

• STREAKS: CIN 4, (CLE, CHW) -4, SAC -5, BAL -6
• KREMER(BAL) 4-11 -40.1%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • RAY(SF) 9-0 +90.3% ROI w/3.04 / 1.25 / 4.074 xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 5-1 +45.1% w/4.50 / 1.18 / 3.520 xFIP
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 6-2 +18.1% w/2.91 / 1.22 / 3.121 xFIP
  • KELLER(PIT) 2-7 -58.9% w/4.15 / 1.33 / 4.241 xFIP
  • SORIANO(LAA) 2-7 -59.9% w/3.46 / 1.46 / 3.561 xFIP
• FREELAND(COL) 1-8 -64.4% w/6.15 / 1.59 / 3.459 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 396-301 +1.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 278-166 +2.2%

​

​

Well I thought I was on my way to my best day ever, After going 19-5-1 +62.4u in afternoon games heading into the Sunday night subway series in the Big Apple. Even in the bottom of the 9th I was still sitting pretty, but then the Mets started doing Met things, starting with Alonso air mailing an easy throw home to allow the go ahead run to score. Then after getting Judge to strikeout with the bases loaded, Cabrera serves up a meatball which Bellinger hammers out to right for the walk off slam. 6 unearned runs sunk my under and chance for a record day. But still +50u on the day ain't bad. ​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [193-156 +126.57u]
LAST: [9-5-3 +11.68u]

5/20 TUE

• 4/5.68 MIA +142
• 3/2.40 MIA +1½ -125
• 4/3.20 CIN -125
• 5/2.87 PHI -1½ -174
• 4/3.64 PHI o10½ -110
• 6/2.86 LAD -210
• 3/4.95 TEX +165
• 4/3.81 NYY u9 -105
• 4/3.64 MIN u7½ -110
• 4/3.64 CHW u8½ -110
• 4/6.00 LAA +150
• 4/4.00 SAC u10 +100
• 3/3.36 BOS +112
• 3/2.03 BOS +1½ -148
• 5/5.00 BOS u9 +100
• 5/4.46 SD -112
• 4/2.37 DET -169
• 4/4.20 DET -1½ +105

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: CIN 5, (PHI, SEA, LAA) 4, (LAD, PIT, CLE) -4, CHW -5, SAC -6, BAL -7
• NELSON(ARI) 8-3 +59.7%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• CORBIN(TEX) 2-11 -69.1%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • OBER(MIN) 7-2 +43.7% ROI w/3.72 / 1.37 / 4.355 xFIP
  • LUZARDO(PHI) 7-2 +45.1% w/2.00 / 1.19 / 3.350 xFIP
  • HOLMES(NYM) 7-2 +28.6% w/3.14 / 1.25 / 3.486 xFIP
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-7 -50% w/6.39 / 1.99 / 4.842 xFIP
  • MARTINEZ(CIN) 2-7 -63.9% w/3.66 / 1.16 / 3.981 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 400-308 +1.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 280-170 +1.7%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

​

5/21 WED

• 6/5.61 PIT u8 -107
• 4/5.08 MIA +127
• 4/4.12 CHC o9 +103
• 4/5.52 WAS +138
• 5/4.76 WAS u8½ -105
• 4/2.61 PHI -1½ -153
• 5/4.76 PHI o11½ -105
• 3/3.60 ARI +120
• 3/1.82 ARI -1½ -165
• 4/3.48 MIN u7½ -115
• 4/3.17 HOU -126
• 3/3.75 HOU -1½ +125
• 5/5.05 TAM u8½ +101
• 6/8.40 CHW +140
• 6/6.30 CHW u8 +105
• 4/4.08 TEX +102
• 3/4.71 TEX -1½ +157
• 5/7.20 LAA +144
• 4/3.94 SAC u10½ -101
• 5/4.27 MIL -117
• 5/4.35 MIL u8½ -115
• 4/3.70 STL -108
• 4/4.00 STL u8½ +100
• 5/2.61 SF -191
• 6/5.24 SF u7½ -114
• 6/4.41 BOS -136
• 5/4.76 BOS u8 -105
• 4/2.76 TOR -145
• 6/6.24 TOR u8½ +104

randoms...

• STREAKS: (PHI, LAA) 5, WAS 4, (SD, CLE) -4, SAC -7, BAL -8
• SHANE SMITH HAS ALLOWED 3 EARNED RUNS ONLY ONCE IN 9 STARTS AND HAS A SOLID 2.05 ERA
• PALLANTE(STL) 10-4 +40.5%% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• CROCHET(BOS) 2-14 -80%% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • OBER(MIN) 7-2 +43.7% ROI w/3.72 / 1.37 / 4.355 xFIP
  • SMITH(CHW) 1-8 -68.4% w/2.05 / 1.14 / 4.059 xFIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 410-312 +1.9%
  • CHALK @HOME 285-171 +2.1%

 

[mrpickem]

The model really sees the lines being off today, producing 7 plays...most this season. So since Wednesday has been my best day of the week all season, I'm poised for a blast-off or possible dump and begin regression to the mean.

All my MLB action by day of week

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [211-182 +84.33u]
LAST: [8-19-2 -50.82u]

5/22 THU

• 4/2.16 PHI -1½ -185
• 6/5.45 PHI o11 -110
• 4/2.74 NYY -146
• 4/2.76 SAC -145
• 3/3.90 SAC -1½ +130
• 3/2.27 SEA -132
• 3/3.75 SEA -1½ +125
• 4/3.64 SEA o8½ -110
• 4/3.64 TOR u9 -110

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: (PHI, LAA) 6, WAS 4, COL -4, SD -5, SAC -8
• ANDERSON(LAA) 9-5 +62.6%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • 
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 415-321 +1.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 288-176 +1.5%

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [214-188 +70.19u]
LAST: [3-6 -14.14u]

5/23 FRI

• 4/3.54 PIT -113
• 4/4.00 MIL o7 +100
• 6/5.71 CIN u8½ -105
• 7/6.93 WAS -101
• 4/4.00 SF o8 +100
• 5/5.55 NYM +111
• 4/3.48 NYM u9 -115
• 4/2.78 ATL -144
• 4/3.48 ATL u8 -115
• 5/4.76 STL u8½ -105
• 5/3.82 TAM -131
• 4/4.96 CLE +124
• 3/5.01 CHW +167
• 3/2.86 CHW +1½ -105
• 4/4.00 CHW u8 +100
• 5/3.33 MIN -150
• 5/2.40 NYY -1½ -208
• 5/4.35 LAA u8½ -115
• 5/4.76 SAC +1½ -105
• 4/3.48 SAC u9½ -115

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: (PHI, LAA) 7, WAS 5, NYY 4, TEX -4, COL -5, SD -6, SAC -9
• CANNING(NYM) 12-4 +51.2%% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• HANCOCK(SEA) 5-0 +115.8%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• SALE(ATL) 9-2 +23.3% L365 DAYS @HOME
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • JOBE(DET) 8-0 +98% ROI w/4.12 / 1.45 / 4.917 xFIP ⃤
  • CANNING(NYM) 8-1 +65.2% w/2.47 / 1.29 / 3.394 xFIP
  • HANCOCK(SEA) 5-2 +51.5% w/6.21 / 1.68 / 4.241 xFIP
  • SKENES(PIT) 3-7 -37.7% w/2.44 / 0.94 / 3.431 xFIP
  • PERALTA w/2.59 / 1.06 GAMES 8-1 ON THE UNDER AWAY
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • @HOME 419-325 +1.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 289-178 +1.3%

 

[mrpickem]

Angels are the hottest team right now and what makes it amazing is it's mostly all been done on the road, as they just come home today after a 10-games road trip. I added streak and site streak to 15-day table since the line/total for today's game was showing up everywhere. The negative numbers indicate losing streak or road games.

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [226-196 +77.87u]
LAST: [12-8 +8.00u]

Crazy thing, after this past Wednesday debacle, Friday is now actually my best day of the week through yesterday, For may years Friday was always the worst...at least for me.

​

5/24 SAT

• 5/4.67 PIT -107
• 3/5.64 PIT -1½ +188
• 4/3.33 MIL o8 -120
• 3/2.26 SF -133
• 3/3.75 SF -1½ +125
• 4/3.81 WAS u8½ -105
• 5/4.27 SD -117
• 5/4.50 ATL u8½ -111
• 4/3.48 NYM u9 -115
• 3/3.36 KAN +112
• 3/1.54 KAN +1½ -195
• 4/3.64 MIN u8 -110
• 4/3.81 HOU u7½ -105
• 6/6.00 CHW u8 +100
• 4/4.28 TOR +107
• 4/1.24 NYY -323
• 4/1.86 NYY -1½ -215
• 4/3.64 COL u10½ -110
• 3/4.68 SAC +156
• 4.20/4 SAC +1½ -105
• 4/4.20 PHI o9½ +105

randoms...

• STREAKS: (PHI, LAA) 8, TEX -5, SAC -10
• PETERSON(NYM) 12-3 +40.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• VALDEZ(HOU) 12-3 +30% L365 DAYS @HOME
• PRIESTER(MIL) 0-5 -100% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • WOO(SEA) 7-2 +51.6% ROI w/2.65 / 0.87 / 3.465 xFIP ️
  • REA(CHC) 6-1 +62.5% w/2.72 / 1.24 / 4.090 xFIP
  • FRIED(NYY) 9-1 +39.3% w/1.29 / 0.93 / 3.409 xFIP
  • SANCHEZ(PHI) 7-2 +20.5% ROI w/3.10 / 1.18 / 2.922 xFIP
  • PRIESTER(MIL) 1-5 -67.3% w/3.10 / 1.45 / 4.896 xFIP
  • CANNON(CHW) 1-7 -62.7% w/4.36 / 1.45 / 4.661 xFIP
  • KELLER(PIT) 2-8 -63.1% w/3.88 / 1.31 / 4.151 xFIP
  • FREELAND(COL) 1-9 -68% w/5.68 / 1.60 / 3.473 xFIP
• LAST 90 DAYS:
  • @HOME 427-332 +1.4%
  • CHALK @HOME 294-183 +1.0%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [234-207 +62.28u]
LAST: [8-11-2 -15.59u]

5/25 SUN

• 5/6.95 WAS +139
• 6/6.30 WAS u8 +105
• 6/5.89 PIT u8 -102
• 5/4.46 STL -112
• 4/6.60 ATL -1½ +165
• 6/6.00 ATL u8 +100
• 6/4.69 NYM -128
• 5/5.00 NYM u8½ +100
• 6/2.73 DET -220
• 6/7.20 BAL +120
• 4/4.00 BAL o9½ +100
• 4/3.81 TAM u9 -105
• 5/6.65 TEX -1½ +133
• 5/5.00 HOU u8 +100
• 5/3.23 PHI -155
• 5/4.76 PHI -1½ -105
• 4/4.00 PHI o10 +100
• 4/4.68 MIA +117
• 4/2.35 MIA +1½ -170
• 4/4.20 LAA u9 +105

randoms...

• STREAKS: PHI 9, (TAM, CLE) 4, ARI -4, TEX -6, SAC -11
• 
• RAY(SF) 6-1 +87.8%% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• SKUBAL(DET) 12-4 +26.9%% L365 DAYS @HOME
• MARTIN(CHW) 2-8 -56.2% L365 DAYS @HOME
• BASSITT(TOR) 3-11 -60% L365 DAYS AWAY
• CORBIN(TEX) 2-12 -71.3% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • RAY(SF) 9-1 +71.3% ROI w/2.67 / 1.22 / 3.915 xFIP 👁
  • GRAY(STL) 8-2 +46.6% w/4.02 / 1.13 / 3.276 xFIP
  • BUEHLER(BOS) 6-1 +58.2% w/4.00 / 1.20 / 3.858 xFIP
  • LUZARDO(PHI) 8-2 +34% ROI w/1.95 / 1.15 / 3.142 xFIP 👁
  • MARTIN(CHW) 2-7 -44.4% w/4.15 / 1.43 / 4.285 xFIP
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-8 -55% w/6.34 / 1.97 / 4.664 xFIP
• LAST 90 DAYS:
  • @HOME 438-337 +1.8% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 300-185 +1.3%

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [234-207 +61.89u]
LAST: [9-9 -0.39u]

5/26 MON

• 5/1.55 CHC -333
• 4/2.55 CHC -1½ -157
• 4/3.81 CHC u8 -105
• 7/11.83 PIT +169
• 5/5.25 ARI u9 +105
• 5/6.95 TOR +139
• 4/4.16 TEX u7 +104
• 5/5.50 MIN +110
• 4/4.00 MIN o9 +100
• 5/7.35 LAA +147
• 4/2.74 BOS -146
• 4/4.80 BOS -1½ +120
• 4/3.92 BOS o7½ -102
• 5/4.81 BAL -104
• 6/2.14 NYM -281
• 4/3.67 KAN u8 -109
• 4/2.48 LAD -161
• 4/3.89 LAD -1½ -103
• 4/3.64 CLE u8 -110

randoms...

• STREAKS: TAM 5, ARI -5
• WEATHERS(MIA) 4-0 +149%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• WILLIAMS(CLE) 3-10 -58.4% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • MORTON(BAL) 0-6 -100% w/10.22 / 2.07 / 4.720 xFIP
  • MARTINEZ(CIN) 2-8 -67.5% w/3.43 / 1.75 / 3.993 xFIP
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 444-346 +1.5% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 303-189 +1.1%

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Here's a pay site that has some good info for free with a good clean look. I've seen it before, but had not been there in a year or two, and it seems to be way better now...at least the free part.

https://dailyambush.com/mlb/lineups/ 
https://dailyambush.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [244-215 +62.48u]
LAST: [10-8-1 +0.59u]

5/27 TUE

• 5/4.90 ATL -102
• 5/4.65 PHI u8½ -107
• 3/8.70 COL +290
• 4/3.81 CHC u7½ -105
• 5/4.35 ARI u9 -115
• 6/10.02 MIA +167
• 4/3.46 SD u8 -116
• 4/3.64 TEX u8 -110
• 4/3.64 LAA u9 -110
• 4/4.88 CLE +122
• 4/2.88 CLE +1½ -139
• 4/3.83 DET u7 -104
• 5/4.76 NYM u7½ -105
• 4/7.60 KAN -1½ +190
• 4/3.81 CIN o8 -105
• 5/4.76 SEA u8 -105

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: TAM 6
• MAY(LAD) 0-4 -100%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• RYAN(MIN) 3-9 -53.2% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • ANDERSON(LAA) 8-2 +75.4% ROI w/3.60 / 1.24 / 5.153 xFIP
  • MARQUIZ(COL) 2-8 -23.5% w/7.66 / 1.68 / 5.129
  • CANNON(CHW) 1-7 -62.7% w/4.36 / 1.45 / 4.605
  • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-8 -67.5% w/4.39 / 1.18 / 3.344
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 452-350 +1.8% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 308-191 +1.3%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [250-225 +40.13u]
LAST: [6-10 -22.35u]

5/28 WED

• 5/5.75 PIT +115
• 5/2.62 PIT +1½ -191
• 4/4.00 ARI u7½ +100
• 6/9.00 MIA +150
• 5/4.55 SD u8½ -110
• 5/3.16 PHI -158
• 4/5.52 PHI -1½ +138
• 6/6.30 PHI u7½ +105
• 6/1.83 CHC -328
• 4/3.45 CHC u8 -116
• 5/4.76 TAM u8 -105
• 4/4.60 SAC +115
• 4/2.23 SAC +1½ -189
• 5/3.45 TEX -145
• 6/6.00 TEX u8 +100
• 6/9.24 LAA +154
• 5/4.35 LAA u9 -115
• 5/4.55 DET u8 -110
• 5/7.40 MIL -1½ +148
• 6/5.22 MIL u8 -115
• 6/6.36 STL +106
• 4/4.20 BAL u8½ +105
• 5/11.15 CHW +223
• 4/3.64 NYM u8 -110
• 4/4.00 KAN u7½ +100
• 4/7.40 WAS +185
• 5/4.55 SEA u8½ -110

​

randoms...

• STREAKS: (NYY, NYM) 4, (BOS, COL, LAA) -4
• ALCANTARA(MIA) 0-4 -100%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GORDON(COL) 0-6 -100%% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • JOBE(DET) 8-1 +76% ROI w/4.06 / 1.42 / 4.956 xFIP
  • CANNING(NYM) 8-2 +48.6% ROI w/2.88 / 1.32 / 6.648 xFIP
  • SMITH(CHW) 1-9 -71.6% w/2.05 / 1.14 / 3.973
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 461-356 +1.9% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 315-193 +1.7%

​

​

​

keep in mind, model not necessarily picking a team to win, it just shows that the line is out of wack, creating value, But one may argue there is never any value with the Rox who are busy making a case as one of the worst teams in 75 years​

​

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [272-245 +59.35u]
LAST: [13-11-3 +19.22u]

5/29 THU

• 5/4.55 G2-PHI -110
• 4/3.60 TOR u8½ -110
• 7/6.80 WAS -103
• 5/4.55 G1-PHI -110

I played all these at 6am but CTG site was having issues so just now posting...

randoms...

• STREAKS: NYY 5, (DET, HOU, MIL, CHC) 4, (BOS, COL, LAA) -5
• ATL 4-12 L16 as dog
• PHI 22-6 L28 overall
• PHI 19-7 L26 as favorite
• 
  
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 468-363 +1.5% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 320-199 +1.0%

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [274-247 +61.70u]
LAST: [2-2 +2.35u]

5/30 FRI

• 5/7.80 MIA +156
• 5/5.00 ARI -1½ +100
• 5/6.00 SD -1½ +120
• 4/7.72 CHW +193
• 4/3.97 CLE u8 -101
• 5/7.25 DET -1½ +145
• 6/3.97 HOU -151
• 4/5.60 HOU -1½ +140
• 4/3.64 HOU u7½ -110
• 4/2.70 SEA -148
• 4/5.92 SEA -1½ +148
• 5/6.25 ATL -1½ +125
• 5/4.35 ATL u9½ -115
• 7/5.69 NYY -123
• 5/6.50 NYY -1½ +130

randoms...

• STREAKS: NYY 5, (DET, MIL, CHC) 4, (BOS, COL, LAA) -5
• PETERSON(NYM) 13-2 +53% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• WOO(SEA) 10-1 +59.1% L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.81 WHIP
• MIZE(DET) 7-2 +63.9% L365 DAYS AWAY
• VALDEZ(HOU) 13-3 +33.8% L365 DAYS @HOME
• LIBERATORE(STL) 1-6 -64% L365 DAYS AWAY
• HARRISON(SF) 1-6 -73.8% L365 DAYS AWAY
• WALKER(PHI) 2-8 -70.7% L365 DAYS @HOME
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • FRIED(NYY) 10-1 +76% ROI w/1.29 / 0.93 / 3.199 xFIP
  • PIVETTA(SD) 7-3 +42.6% ROI w/2.72 / 1.01 / 3.596 xFIP
  • FREELAND(COL) 1-10 -70.9% w/5.68 / 1.60 / 3.635
  • LIBERATORE ONLY 5-5 BUT HAS PITCHED WELL w/2.92 / 1.03 / 3.351
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 470-363 +1.4% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 322-202 +0.8%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

Is it wrong to imagine that is Coke on her titties instead of flour?

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [279-257 +36.88u]
LAST: [5-10 -24.82u]


Friday was going OK before losing my last 6 plays, including in SEA when the best closer in the game, blows a 3-run 9th inn lead in Seattle with 2 outs in the 9th while allowing the #9 hitter to hit a 2 run shot. Munoz in 24 previous appearances this year had given up exactly ZERO earned runs!

5/31 SAT

• 6/8.34 CIN +139
• 5/4.35 PHI u8½ -115
• 7/1.85 NYM -378
• 4/4.00 NYM u8 +100
• 4/3.81 MIA u7½ -105
• 5/5.25 SD -1½ +105
• 5/4.76 SD u7½ -105
• 4/7.12 WAS +178
• 4/6.88 CHW +172
• 5/4.35 BAL u9½ -115
• 5/8.40 LAA +168
• 4/3.81 CLE u8 -105
• 6/5.45 HOU u8½ -110
• 5/4.85 SEA -103
• 4/2.96 STL -135
• 5/6.00 STL -1½ +120
• 4/3.48 ATL u9 -115
• 5/5.30 NYY +106

randoms...

• STREAKS: (DET, MIL) 5, SAC -4, COL -6
• RAY(SF) 7-1 +85.4% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• PFAADT(ARI) 12-4 +32.4% L365 DAYS @HOME
• MARTIN(CHW) 1-8 -70.7% L365 DAYS AWAY
• GOOD/BAD STARTERS 2025 SO FAR:
  • RAY(SF) 10-1 +71% ROI w/2.56 / 1.15 / 3.728 xFIP
  • GRAY(STL) 9-2 +49.6% ROI w/4.06 / 1.16 / 3.712
  • MARTIN(CHW) 2-8 -50% w/4.01 / 1.40 / 4.387
  • SENZATELA(COL) 2-9 -59.1% w/6.50 / 1.95 / 4.526
• 2025 SEASON
  • @HOME 477-374 +1.0% ROI
  • CHALK @HOME 327-207 +0.4%

 

[mrpickem]

Nata Lee...the model so perfect it's hard to believe it's not AI!

​

 

[mrpickem]

I'm making a change on model leans. They have been so damn bad and even though I don't play or fade them...it's just a ref point. The way my model was set to calculate was on 21% difference for PLAYS and 11% for LEANS. Or in other words, when my model showed the true percentage to win as over 21% more than the moneyline converted implied percentage chance of winning, it is a play.

Example today: REDS +139 today implies a 41.8% chance of winning. My model gives them a true 51.7% chance of winning, including a near 8% add for the difference is starting pitching today. Therefore, if you take 41.8% plus 21% of that equaling 50.58%, anything above that constitutes a PLAY.

Same thing on leans but with 11% difference and under the 21% threshold which would be a play. Anyway, I'm changing the 11% to 16% and when I do it starting today it also backdates the whole season to only include the LEAN being under 21% différance but at least 16%. Haha, all that horse-shit for what amounts to basically a nothingburger. I just try to explain my actions and be a transparent as possible.

So the updated plays for today include no LEANS and far fewer LEANS this far in the season. Obviously, there is no change in the PLAYS for today or the season. Later in the season, I generally lower the percentages a bit as lines get tighter.



Here's all teams record when facing teams with a winning record(above 50% wins)