MAY BASES 🥎

[mrpickem]

It was a rough month for me, with most of the damage being done over last 14 days. I am still adjusting metrics and trying to find the elusive sweet spot after sustaining substantial losses the past 2 years and 3 of last 4. It appears I'm well on my way to another piss-poor effort, although not for lack of trying. Fortunately I'm secure and the money's not that important for me. The entertainment value has become paramount, along with trying to exercise my noodle since I've advanced in age well into senior status. Always make your own selections, only bet what you can afford to lose and if you consider my picks at all...the fade may be the way to go!

THU 5/1

• 4/2.99 PIT -134
• 3/2.86 PIT u7½ -105
• 3/2.03 NYM -148
• 3/4.35 NYM -1½ +145
• 3/2.61 NYM u8 -115
• 3/4.56 WAS +152
• 3/2.31 WAS +1½ -130
• 3/2.61 WAS o9½ -115
• 2/4.32 COL +216
• 2/1.82 COL +1½ -110
• 3/2.61 MIN o9 -115
• 4/2.62 TEX -153
• 3/2.92 TOR u8½ -103
• 3/3.00 LAA u8 +100
• 4/6.32 CHW +158

randoms...

• After a full month of play is in the books, it looks like the best ball is being played on the left coast. LAD, SD, and SF have 3 of the 4 best records so far. SD & SF rank 1-2 in best bet so far. SEA is 14-4 since APR09 after a 4-8 start to claim spot as the hottest team going. Only the Mets from the east break into the top echelon so far. DET & CHC have both performed well and represent the only other strong performers away from the west. Notable recent Cy Young winners have shown considerable drop-offs including Nola, Verlander & Gallen.
• Streaks: LAD 5, (SEA, PHI) 4, (LAA, MIA) -5
• LIVELY(CLE) 12-4 @HOME L365 DAYS
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: REA(CHC) 3-0, ABBOTT(CIN) 3-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: FREELAND 0-6
  • CHALK 273-164 +4.5% ROI
  • @HOME 276-180 +8.3%
  • CHALK @HOME 199-100 +9.5%

 

[mrpickem]

SPB=STRIKES PER BALL​

WOW, MIAMI GAMES HAVE CASHED OVER THE TOTAL IN 15 OF LAST 18

 

[mrpickem]

This season has started quite differently than seasons past...

• Considering only March/April games since 2018:
• Home teams are winning at 60.5% clip showing a profit of 8.3% ROI. Visitors had shown profit every year except one(2022) which was basically even.
  
• Favorites are off to a good starts as well, 62.5% winners at +4.5% ROI. Oddly the trend has been every 3 years the chalk has been the way with 2018 (63.4% / 4.6% ROI) and 2022 (63.1% / 3.6% ROI) both profitable for favorites while only 2021 was profitable for dogs.
• Home favorites are and amazing 199-100 66.7% for 9.5% ROI, far and away the best start. The home chalk did show slight profit in 2019 and 2022, but nothing close to excellent start this year.
• Totals when lined at 9 or more used to be easy bet to the over, but the past 4 years have trended to playing the under in such situations, not by that much lately, but the unders have still hit 53.7% for +1.7% ROI for a small profit this year. Not much otherwise trend-worthy on totals

 

[mrpickem]

2025: [262-289 -181.13u]
LAST: [7-8 -1.14u]

FRI 5/2

• 4/2.58 CIN -155
• 3/2.73 CIN u8½ -110
• 4/5.48 PIT +137
• 3/1.96 LAD -153
• 3/3.00 LAD -1½ +100
• 3/2.83 MIL u8½ -106
• 4/3.57 NYM -112
• 3/3.00 STL u7½ +100
• 5/2.13 SF -235
• 3/2.52 SF -1½ -119
• 3/2.61 SF u8 -115
• 3/2.48 KAN o9 -121
• 2/4.10 CHW +205
• 3/3.60 CHW +1½ +120
• 5/7.85 LAA +157
• 3/2.73 MIA u9 -110

​

randoms...

Streaks: LAD 5 SEA 4, LAA -6, MIA -5​

COL 28-92 L120 AWAY​

COL 13-40 L53 VS SF​

SO FAR IN 2025:​

• UNDEFEATED STARTERS: RAY(SF) 6-0, FRIED(NYY) 6-0
• NO WIN STARTERS: CANNON(CHW) 0-5
• CHALK 274-174 +2.3% ROI
• @HOME 280-187 +7.1%
• CHALK @HOME 199-106 +7.3%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

My dude never misses a day in any season! I honestly don’t know what I did last 2 weeks, I just started pricing and following scores this week then had an issue and had to wait an extra day. I figured it was more for nba but soon as I opened a fangraphs article on pitch selection and pitch shaping it was bases time!

 

[mrpickem]

LAST 30 DAYS AT SITE WHERE PLAYING TODAY (HOME OR AWAY)

Not that surprising the A's are a solid road team since realistically all their games are roadies.

 

[mrpickem]

My dude never misses a day in any season! I honestly don’t know what I did last 2 weeks, I just started pricing and following scores this week then had an issue and had to wait an extra day. I figured it was more for NBA but soon as I opened a fangraphs article on pitch selection and pitch shaping it was bases time!

NBA is one thing I just can't do, haven't played the association for over 10 years. Well may a play or two per year...none so far this year.

I play every day...Football, MLB, UFC, Hoops and select spots on boxing and golf. No longer play NASCAR, Tennis or NBA.

 

[2daBank]

NBA is one thing I just can't do, haven't played the association for over 10 years. Well may a play or two per year...none so far this year.

I play every day...Football, MLB, UFC, Hoops and select spots on boxing and golf. No longer play NASCAR, Tennis or NBA.

You are a beast!!
I always have at least 1-2 hiatuses throughout year and a few rando days I just miss cause life shit. It amazes the hell out of me everytime I jump back you havnt missed a day with the charts and info! Always appreciate your threads!!

NBA just playoffs for me and less plays now than 10 years ago but still find some plays or series in playoffs I really like. Used to bet tennis majors like huge square but I don’t know anyone anymore. You post ufc? I remember back in day I had friends signing up for those clubs and fighting locally but everytime I asked them to give me plays they got me killed! lol.

There no way your last 2 weeks isn’t bout to drastically change! May/june till all star game is generally a fantastic time! Only days i tend to miss in this 2 month stretch is back when I regrettably had a life and was forced to go out and have fun and Sun over memorial and 4th of July weekends and I might miss 2 days, 1 if my reception holds up! Appreciate your insane consistency and of course the fact you post useful information daily!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

Teams off a dog win lined over +175 and a dog again over +175 have won only20% (52-207) over the last 7 years. (4-19 since 6/1/24)

If you faded them every time for a hundy, you'd be up $6736 or +9.9% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [17-13 +9.39u]
LAST: [10-5-1 +10.53u]

SAT 5/3

• 5/1.88 SF -266
• 3/2.73 COL o8 -110
• 4/4.12 PIT +103
• 3/3.33 ARI +111
• 4/2.23 ARI +1½ -179
• 6/5.61 CIN u8½ -107
• 3/2.94 MIL -102
• 4/2.29 MIL +1½ -175
• 2/3.40 TAM +170
• 3/2.50 TAM +1½ -120
• 3/2.73 NYY u9½ -110
• 5/2.07 HOU -242
• 4/2.88 HOU -1½ -139
• 4/4.04 MIN +101
• 4/5.40 SEA -1½ +135
• 5/4.35 BAL u9 -115
• 4/2.42 DET -165
• 5/4.35 MIA -115
• 5/5.00 MIA u8 +100

​

randoms...

• Streaks: LAD 6, SEA 5, LAA -7, MIA -6, (TAM, MIN) -4
• PFAADT 5-1 +46.7% ROI THIS SEASON w/2.78 / 1.12 / 29:6
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: QUINTANA(MIL) 4-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: N0NE
  • CHALK 288-175 +3.9% ROI (YESTERDAY 14-1)
  • @HOME 288-194 +7.2%
  • CHALK @HOME 206-106 +8.4%

 

[2daBank]

may already looking a fuck of a lot better than 2 weeks of rain to finish april.

Like your card again.

 

[2daBank]

Oh apparently I shouldn’t bet nba either. Lol

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [26-22 +0.82u]
LAST: [9-9 -8.57u]

SUN 5/4

• 6/5.71 PIT u8½ -105
• 4/3.77 CHC -106
• 5/5.00 MIL u7½ +100
• 3/4.29 COL +1½ +143
• 4/4.32 WAS +108
• 5/2.62 WAS +1½ -191
• 4/5.56 ATL +139
• 3/3.09 ATL u9 +103
• 4/2.39 NYY -168
• 3/2.73 NYY u9 -110
• 5/2.32 BOS -215
• 3/3.15 BOS u8 +105
• 4/4.09 CLE +102
• 5/2.38 CLE +1½ -210
• 4/7.56 CHW +189
• 7/6.74 TEX u8 -104
• 3/1.85 DET -162
• 3/3.00 DET -1½ +100
• 5/4.76 DET u8½ -105

randoms...

• Streaks: LAD 7, SEA 6, SD 4, TEX -4
• SEA STAYS HOT, NOW #3 ON THE YEAR IN PROFIT
• IMANAGA 10-3 +46.6% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• CROCHET 4-12 @HOME L365 DAYS
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: NONE
  • NO WIN STARTERS: G MARQUEZ 0-6, PADDACK 0-6
  • CHALK 294-183 +2.9% ROI (YESTERDAY 14-1)
  • @HOME 292-204 +5.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 209-113 +6.8%

 

[mrpickem]

adds...

• 4/4.68 G1-STL +117
• 6/9.60 TAM +160
• 2.14/1 BOS -214
• 4/2.48 TEX -161

Missed a couple, plus small add on BOS and flipping off NYY

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

... You post ufc? I remember back in day I had friends signing up for those clubs and fighting locally but everytime I asked them to give me plays they got me killed! lol.

Had solid day in UFC yesterday, I always post...missed like 2 cards in 3 years, basically when I had no fight I liked

Yesterday

I meant to reply sooner but slipped my mind

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [40-31 +26.62u]
LAST: [14-9 +25.80u]

5/5 MON

• 3/3.15 LAD o9½ +105
• 4/2.99 ATL -134
• 3/2.26 STL -133
• 3/2.73 STL u8½ -110
• 3/2.73 ARI u9½ -110
• 5/2.24 KAN -223
• 4/3.67 SEA -109
• 3/2.73 SAC u9 -110
• 3/2.50 WAS u9 -120
• 4/5.12 SD +128

randoms...

• Streaks: SD 5, PIT -4
• DONT LOOK NOW, BUT ROYOS ON FIRE 10-2 +64% ROI L14 DAYS
• NYM UNDERS 8-0 IN L8 AS DOGS
• ARI 10-2 L12 STARTS BY NELSON
• BOYD(CHC) 7-2 +44.6% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• PIVETTA 5-1 +56% ROI w/1.78/0.82/39:8 IN 2025
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 298-192 +1.6% ROI
  • @HOME 299-213 +4.9%
  • CHALK @HOME 211-117 +5.7%

 

[mrpickem]

​

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [48-34 +35.10u]
LAST: [8-3-1 +8.48u]

5/6 TUE

• 2/4.88 MIA +244
• 3/2.86 MIA u9½ -105
• 5/2.55 ATL -196
• 3/2.73 ATL u8 -110
• 4/2.86 CHC -140
• 3/2.34 PIT -128
• 3/4.29 PIT -1½ +143
• 5/4.76 ARI u9 -105
• 5/2.33 KAN -215
• 6/5.45 KAN u8½ -110
• 4/5.80 BAL +145
• 3/2.86 MIN u8½ -105
• 3/2.86 TOR o9 -105
• 3/2.60 SAC u10 -116
• 4/4.28 TAM +107
• 3/3.00 PHI o8 +100
• 3/3.15 NYY u8 +105
• 5/2.87 DET -174

​

randoms...

• Streaks: SD 6, PIT -5
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 11-2 +62% ROI L15 DAYS
• SALE(ATL) 11-2 +27% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME w/0.78 WHIP
• SO FAR IN 2025:
• UNDEFEATED STARTERS: JOBE 5-0, (REA & ABBOTT) 4-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: NONE
  • CHALK 304-195 +1.8% ROI
  • @HOME 305-216 +5.1%
  • CHALK @HOME 216-119 +6%

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [56-41 +45.13u]
LAST: [10-7-1 +10.01u]

5/7 WED

• 4/6.28 PIT +157
• 3/2.14 PIT +1½ -140
• 7/6.30 STL u7½ -111
• 4/2.94 CHC -136
• 4/3.63 CHC u7 -110
• 4/5.40 NYM -1½ +135
• 4/3.48 ARI u9 -115
• 5/2.33 LAD -215
• 5/3.57 LAD -1½ -140
• 5/4.35 ATL u8 -115
• 5/4.76 SAC u9 -105
• 4/4.20 TEX o9½ +105
• 2/4.00 CHW +200
• 3/2.73 CHW +1½ -110
• 5/4.55 MIN u9½ -110
• 4/3.48 TOR o8½ -115
• 4/5.00 CLE -1½ -125
• 4/5.72 HOU -1½ +143
• 4/3.08 MIL u8 -130
• 4/5.52 PHI -1½ +138
• 4/3.48 PHI o8 -115
• 5/7.95 SD +159
• 4/3.48 NYY u8 -115

randoms...

• Streaks: (KAN, STL) 4, CIN -4, PIT -6
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 12-2 +61% ROI L15 DAYS
• MORTON 3-9 AWAY -57% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• MORTON 0-7 w/9.76 / 2.20 / 26:21 THIS YEAR
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: (RAY, FRIED) 7-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: MORTON(BAL) 0-5
  • CHALK 313-201 +1% ROI
  • @HOME 315-221 +5.7%
  • CHALK @HOME 222-121 +6.5%

DOYERS BY FAR THE BEST IN LEAGUE AFTER A LOSS, WINNING 66% FOR +7.6% ROI & +16.1% ROI ON RL 2023-2025
PHI NEXT BEST WINNING ONLY 57.5%

 

[2daBank]

I see May turning around nicely!!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [71-49 +77.87u]
LAST: [15-8 +32.74u]

5/8 THU

• 3/1.96 LAD -153
• 3/2.97 LAD -1½ -101
• 4/4.00 LAD o8½ +100
• 4/2.78 MIN -144
• 5/4.59 MIN u8 -109
• 4/3.33 BOS u9½ -120
• 2/4.48 CHW +224
• 3/3.00 CHW +1½ +100
• 4/3.81 KAN u8 -105
• 3/2.47 TOR -122
• 3/4.14 TOR -1½ +138
• 3/2.27 PHI -132
• 3/3.99 PHI -1½ +133
• 4/3.81 TAM u8½ -105

randoms...

• Streaks: (KAN, STL) 5, MIN 4, (BAL, TOR, COL) -4, PIT -7
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 12-2 +61% ROI L15 DAYS
• PFAADT(ARI)12-4 +28% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• MARTIN(CHW) 0-7 AWAY L365 DAYS
  • UNDEFEATED STARTERS: BELLO(BOS) 3-0
  • NO WIN STARTERS: NONE
  • CHALK 325-204 +2.7% ROI
  • @HOME 321-230 +5.1%
  • CHALK @HOME 227-123 +6.7%

 

[mrpickem]

I'm still battling back from a horrendous April but May has started out pretty good.




Totals have been coming through for me lately, mostly unders.

Crazy stat, MLB season by day of week, Wednesdays are beautiful while the weekends suck

Units by day of week








Throwback Pamela above, here's current Pam from new movie "Naked Gun" coming out in June

 

[inZane]

I'm still battling back from a horrendous April but May has started out pretty good.

View attachment 96662

View attachment 96663
Totals have been coming through for me lately, mostly unders.

Crazy stat, MLB season by day of week, Wednesdays are beautiful while the weekends suck

Units by day of week
View attachment 96664

View attachment 96665
View attachment 96666
View attachment 96667
View attachment 96669
View attachment 96668

Throwback Pamela above, here's current Pam from new movie "Naked Gun" coming out in June

View attachment 96670

Appreciate your posts Mr. P.

Yeah, Sundays suck for me too...

 

[mrpickem]

MAY : [77-57 +71.45u]
LAST: [6-8 -6.42u]

5/9 FRI

• 3/2.26 ATL -133
• 3/3.60 ATL -1½ +120
• 4/3.35 ATL o8½ -119
• 4/3.92 STL -102
• 4/3.48 NYM u8 -115
• 4/4.40 COL u11 +110
• 3/2.68 LAD -112
• 3/3.84 LAD -1½ +128
• 4/4.00 LAD o10 +100
• 6/2.44 DET -246
• 4/4.00 DET u7½ +100
• 5/5.10 KAN +102
• 4/3.61 KAN u9 -111
• 5/6.45 LAA +129
• 3/2.21 NYY -136
• 3/3.30 NYY -1½ +110
• 4/3.56 NYY o10½ -112
• 3/3.03 TAM +101
• 2/3.80 TAM -1½ +190
• 5/4.11 TAM u9½ -122
• 3/2.61 PHI -115
• 3/4.35 PHI -1½ +145
• 4/3.45 PHI o7½ -116
• 5/3.62 MIA -138
• 3/3.60 MIA -1½ +120
• 3/2.83 MIN -106
• 2/3.54 MIN -1½ +177
• 5/3.03 HOU -165

randoms...

• MODEL: DET, KAN, HOU (15-3 LAST 7 DAYS)
• Streaks: KAN 6 (MIN, STL) 5, DET 4, CHW -4, BAL -5, COL -6, PIT -7
• ROYOS STILL ON FIRE 13-2 +60% ROI L15 DAYS
• WILLIAMS(CLE) 2-9 -68.8% ROI L365 DAYS @HOME
• CORBIN(TEX) 3-11 -51% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• FEDDE(STL) 4-13 -46.2% ROI L365 DAYS AWAY
• SO FAR IN 2025:
  • CHALK 333-205 +3.4% ROI
  • @HOME 326-234 +5.2%
  • CHALK @HOME 231-123 +7.3%

 

[B.A.R.]

Heckuva May you have going on!

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

I told you may would be the start of your turn around! More good things go come bro, you a good capper