Maryland vs. North Carolina St. Duke's Mayo Bowl Best Bets: NC State to Triumph with Stronger Pass Attack
Maryland Terrapins vs. NC State Wolfpack
Friday, December 30, 2022 at noon ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Best Bet: Wolfpack +1 at -110 with BetOnline
Maryland's Rush Attack
Maryland might seem dangerous offensively because the Terrapins might seem able to mount a balanced offensive attack.
They do have a starting running back with attractive stats.
But Roman Hemby's stats are inflated by a few games against soft opponents.
He had big games -- exceeding 100 yards -- against Northwestern, Indiana, SMU, and Buffalo.
All four of those teams rank 88th or worse in rush defense.
NC State's Run Defense
Conversely, NC State's run defense is anything but soft.
The Wolfpack rank 15that stopping the run, as evident by their ability to limit opposing rush yards.
Their rush defense ranking is as "low" as it is because crucial starting linebacker Payton Wilson missed the game against Louisville, and Louisville took advantage of his absence by achieving a solid rush output.
Wilson is crucial because he possesses physical and mental traits that make him solid against the run.
He is quick to diagnose opposing plays. He is aggressive and has a positive motor. At 6-4, he is long and has a solid tackle radius. Overall, his range as a tackler is excellent.
Simply put, if you are a running back then he will quickly find you and hunt you down.
NC State, especially with Wilson, is physically tough.
Evidence for this is supplied by its game against Clemson, a physically tough team that likes to bully other teams, such as Syracuse.
In his game against the Wolfpack, Tiger running back Will Shipley had a lackluster performance that fell well below his rushing averages.
Maryland Offense's Important Opt-Outs
It is important to note that NC State's run defense is primed to thrive because its positive outlook helps suggest the extent to which Maryland will lean on its pass attack in order to succeed offensively.
One issue with Maryland depending on its quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, is that its pass attack will be handicapped by opt-outs.
Two Terrapin wide receivers, Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland, have declared for the upcoming NFL Draft and opted out of the bowl game.
Tagovailoa's touchdown-to-interception ratio was 5:1 in his team's wins but worse than 2:1 in his team's losses.
So, he will need to be able to rely on other targets in order to have the successful type of game on which his offense and team's overall success depends.
NC State Pass Defense's Quality
NC State's pass defense stats are a bit complicated to interpret.
The Wolfpack have allowed a lot of passing yards, but this fact creates a deceptive impression of their pass defense's quality.
Opponents are determined to pass against the Wolfpack because their run defense is so dominant.
Obviously, opposing offenses have to try something -- if they can't run, then they have to try passing.
In this sense, the dominance of the Wolfpack run defense facilitates this negative but deceptive impression of the Wolfpack pass defense's quality.
Sam Hartman of Wake Forest, for example, hurt NC State's pass defense stats when he threw for 397 yards.
But it is trivially true that a quarterback will throw for a lot of yards when he attempts 48 passes!
In terms of passer rating, though, Hartman had a well below-average performance because he also threw three interceptions, which helps explain why his team lost by nine points.
Herein lies the evidence for the Wolfpack pass defense's superbness: Wolfpack defenders make plays on the ball and make it hard for quarterbacks to succeed.
Hence, the Wolfpack rank 23rd nationally at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their top defensive back is cornerback Aydan White, an All-ACC first-teamer who amassed four interceptions and 12 passes defensed.
In sum, I expect a poor passer rating from Tagovailoa.
NC State Offense's Outlook
NC State might seem to be in a disadvantage with offensive coordinator Tim Beck having departed.
But Beck was frankly awful. With his play-calling, the Wolfpack offense would often play against its strengths -- when NC State had an advantage running the ball, he'd call too many pass plays and vice versa.
His replacement, Kurt Roper, will call the plays in his absence.
Roper is more than qualified to do so, as he also called plays at Florida and South Carolina.
Beck's departure creates a blessing for the Wolfpack offense.
NC State Pass Attack
Because of their strong pass defense, the Wolfpack won't have to do too much on offense to be stronger than Maryland's pass attack.
Either Ben Finley or MJ Morris will start for the team, perhaps depending on the latter's health.
Finley's passer rating is only 120.7 because he struggled in his first game, against Louisville's pass defense -- the Cardinal pass defense ranks third in the ACC -- before thriving against North Carolina.
Morris' passer rating is much higher because he's an efficient passer with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Either quarterback will flourish against Maryland's pass defense, which ranked 11thin its conference and will miss All-Big Ten honorable mention at cornerback, Deonte Banks, who opted out of the bowl game.
The Verdict
Guided by a new play-caller, NC State's offense will thrive especially on the success of its pass attack.
Whereas leading wide receiver Thayer Thomas and the left guard with an NFL future will play in this game, important Terp wide receivers opted out -- NC State has one wide receiver who opted out, but has plenty of other targets.
The Terrapin rush attack will do nothing against NC State's high-level front seven, and NC State's secondary also possesses a massive edge against its Terp counterpart.
The Terp offense won't have to do too much to send this game over the posted total, especially late in the game when the Wolfpack have a secure lead.
For the above reasons, be sure to invest in the Wolfpack as well as the "over."
Best Bet: Over 48 at -110 with BetOnline
Maryland Terrapins vs. NC State Wolfpack
Friday, December 30, 2022 at noon ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Best Bet: Wolfpack +1 at -110 with BetOnline
Maryland's Rush Attack
Maryland might seem dangerous offensively because the Terrapins might seem able to mount a balanced offensive attack.
They do have a starting running back with attractive stats.
But Roman Hemby's stats are inflated by a few games against soft opponents.
He had big games -- exceeding 100 yards -- against Northwestern, Indiana, SMU, and Buffalo.
All four of those teams rank 88th or worse in rush defense.
NC State's Run Defense
Conversely, NC State's run defense is anything but soft.
The Wolfpack rank 15that stopping the run, as evident by their ability to limit opposing rush yards.
Their rush defense ranking is as "low" as it is because crucial starting linebacker Payton Wilson missed the game against Louisville, and Louisville took advantage of his absence by achieving a solid rush output.
Wilson is crucial because he possesses physical and mental traits that make him solid against the run.
He is quick to diagnose opposing plays. He is aggressive and has a positive motor. At 6-4, he is long and has a solid tackle radius. Overall, his range as a tackler is excellent.
Simply put, if you are a running back then he will quickly find you and hunt you down.
NC State, especially with Wilson, is physically tough.
Evidence for this is supplied by its game against Clemson, a physically tough team that likes to bully other teams, such as Syracuse.
In his game against the Wolfpack, Tiger running back Will Shipley had a lackluster performance that fell well below his rushing averages.
Maryland Offense's Important Opt-Outs
It is important to note that NC State's run defense is primed to thrive because its positive outlook helps suggest the extent to which Maryland will lean on its pass attack in order to succeed offensively.
One issue with Maryland depending on its quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, is that its pass attack will be handicapped by opt-outs.
Two Terrapin wide receivers, Dontay Demus and Jacob Copeland, have declared for the upcoming NFL Draft and opted out of the bowl game.
Tagovailoa's touchdown-to-interception ratio was 5:1 in his team's wins but worse than 2:1 in his team's losses.
So, he will need to be able to rely on other targets in order to have the successful type of game on which his offense and team's overall success depends.
NC State Pass Defense's Quality
NC State's pass defense stats are a bit complicated to interpret.
The Wolfpack have allowed a lot of passing yards, but this fact creates a deceptive impression of their pass defense's quality.
Opponents are determined to pass against the Wolfpack because their run defense is so dominant.
Obviously, opposing offenses have to try something -- if they can't run, then they have to try passing.
In this sense, the dominance of the Wolfpack run defense facilitates this negative but deceptive impression of the Wolfpack pass defense's quality.
Sam Hartman of Wake Forest, for example, hurt NC State's pass defense stats when he threw for 397 yards.
But it is trivially true that a quarterback will throw for a lot of yards when he attempts 48 passes!
In terms of passer rating, though, Hartman had a well below-average performance because he also threw three interceptions, which helps explain why his team lost by nine points.
Herein lies the evidence for the Wolfpack pass defense's superbness: Wolfpack defenders make plays on the ball and make it hard for quarterbacks to succeed.
Hence, the Wolfpack rank 23rd nationally at limiting the opponent's passer rating.
Their top defensive back is cornerback Aydan White, an All-ACC first-teamer who amassed four interceptions and 12 passes defensed.
In sum, I expect a poor passer rating from Tagovailoa.
NC State Offense's Outlook
NC State might seem to be in a disadvantage with offensive coordinator Tim Beck having departed.
But Beck was frankly awful. With his play-calling, the Wolfpack offense would often play against its strengths -- when NC State had an advantage running the ball, he'd call too many pass plays and vice versa.
His replacement, Kurt Roper, will call the plays in his absence.
Roper is more than qualified to do so, as he also called plays at Florida and South Carolina.
Beck's departure creates a blessing for the Wolfpack offense.
NC State Pass Attack
Because of their strong pass defense, the Wolfpack won't have to do too much on offense to be stronger than Maryland's pass attack.
Either Ben Finley or MJ Morris will start for the team, perhaps depending on the latter's health.
Finley's passer rating is only 120.7 because he struggled in his first game, against Louisville's pass defense -- the Cardinal pass defense ranks third in the ACC -- before thriving against North Carolina.
Morris' passer rating is much higher because he's an efficient passer with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Either quarterback will flourish against Maryland's pass defense, which ranked 11thin its conference and will miss All-Big Ten honorable mention at cornerback, Deonte Banks, who opted out of the bowl game.
The Verdict
Guided by a new play-caller, NC State's offense will thrive especially on the success of its pass attack.
Whereas leading wide receiver Thayer Thomas and the left guard with an NFL future will play in this game, important Terp wide receivers opted out -- NC State has one wide receiver who opted out, but has plenty of other targets.
The Terrapin rush attack will do nothing against NC State's high-level front seven, and NC State's secondary also possesses a massive edge against its Terp counterpart.
The Terp offense won't have to do too much to send this game over the posted total, especially late in the game when the Wolfpack have a secure lead.
For the above reasons, be sure to invest in the Wolfpack as well as the "over."
Best Bet: Over 48 at -110 with BetOnline
