Marshall vs. ODU Preview

[Dollaz]

Marshall. -18 @ ODU.

Still digging ing into Marshall, but this line shocked me. I pegged it around 10. A few of the things I bas worried about vs MTSU came to fruition. Coming off an emotional road win and playing in the spotlight on a Friday night and team just came out flat. MTSU basically had the blueprint for beating ODU.....athletic QB, good pass rush, eat the clock on offense, don't allow big plays in defense.

ODU had 4 turnovers, only 1 would I really call that they made a play. Backup QB fumbled after a 50 yard gain, WR dropped a pass into the arms of the defense, and then just an overthrow in a last minute desperation mode. Turnovers and special teams were just huge for MTSU.

As as far as I can remember this is the largest underdog ODU has ever been....maybe at Maryland? We were 14ish at Pitt and ECU, 17 @UNC and Maryland. This is. Marshall at home, which implies Marshall -24 at home.

Their defense gets a lot of pressure and tackles for losses. Secondary appears to be small and inexperienced. Marshall will score points, the keys are how many ODU will score and how much more than 40 will Marshall score?
we
are banged up on the OL so checking in status of starting center. We have to do a better blocking on the right side of the OL. We have to do better running the ball.

I think Marshall is a better team than MTSU but I'm not sure that Marshall isn't a better matchup. ODU won't have spent a week celebrating the win over Rice and have historically played very well coming off losses. Marshall is a team that has really but up some head scratchers on the road. I believe they lost at MTSU, OHio, and rice last year.

No strong opinion at this point but the line is significantly higher than I expected

 

[D-Woww]

i feel like this is an over bet no matter what the line is. maybe marshall team total over as well. full blown shootout

 

[Dollaz]

It should come out at 80. Dead serious.

 

[bloodhound]

Thanks for the thoughts. U make some good pts
GL this wk

 

[Timh]

Terps were -19 against ODU according to Phil Steele's history. I seem to remember it going a little higher than that. Terps played Marshall in the AF bowl last year and lost 31-20 and Cato was one of those tough qb's to face because he can pull it down and run and make a play when nothing else is there. He played well vs. MD and came through in the clutch when he had to and provided very good leadership for his team.

 

[Timh]

It should come out at 80. Dead serious.

I agree and see this one in high 70's.

 

[Dollaz]

Terps were -19 against ODU according to Phil Steele's history. I seem to remember it going a little higher than that. Terps played Marshall in the AF bowl last year and lost 31-20 and Cato was one of those tough qb's to face because he can pull it down and run and make a play when nothing else is there. He played well vs. MD and came through in the clutch when he had to and provided very good leadership for his team.

Thanks Tim

cato is certainly a very Good QB. How good is Marshall's defense? Hard to predict that ODU will score less than 28 at home, which puts Marshall at 46 to cover.

 

[RetroVK]

Good read. Linesmakers have started factoring the Marshall road woes thing into the lines already.

Should be really high scoring ... I am not the kind of guy who bets overs in the 70ies and admit it is a failing of mine. I should just bet the variance regardless but I cant stomach having to have almost three TD's a quarter to get there .. you need both teams to score and in a case like this ( and most cases of highly totaled games ) you need both QB's to stay healthy. Over will get the money but I don't think I can do it.

As for Marshall .. they are a much better overall team than MTSU, but hard to trust.

Sort of becoming a closet fan of the ODU QB and program and enjoy these threads each week. Hope they win unless I end up on Herd

 

[Dollaz]

Had a couple hours this morning and ran some numbers.

ODU's average opponent this year:

Average game for opp defense 70 plays, 447 yards, 6.4 ypp, 13 yards per point
ODU offense avg 71 plays, 455 yards, 6.4 ypp, 13.8 yards per point

Strikingly close.

Opponent offenses avg 74 plays, 410 yards, 5.5 ypp, 14.7 yards per point
ODU Defense avg 78 plays, 439 yards, 5.6 ypp, 13.7 yards per point

One of the key factors is the opponents that ODU's opponents have faced (excluding FCS), here is the list: Georgia Southern, South Florida, FSU, Florida, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Minnesota, Western Kentucky, Memphis.

Moral of this from ODU's point of view is there offense is average about what the defense typically gives up and their defense is doing slightly worse than what the opponents offense typically does. Diving in further, ODU averaged 4.1% more yards per play than NC State has given up on the season, 17.6% less than Eastern Michigan, 11.3% better than Rice, 10.2% better than MTSU. OTOH, on defense, NC State did 6.7% better on offense than their average output, EMU 10.5% worse, Rice 6.6% better, MTSU 2% better.

Just to point out, it's hard to really put a ton of stock in the EMU game due to weather and it's a huge outlier when focusing on the other games. To sum what is already known, ODU's offense is really good, their defense is not so good. (amazing)

on to Marshall.......

 

[Dollaz]

Marshall's average opponent this year:

Average game for opp defense 74 plays, 417 yards, 5.7 ypp, 13.6 yards per point
Marshall offense avg 77 plays, 597 yards, 7.8 ypp, 13.1 yards per point

Opponent offenses avg 75 plays, 418 yards, 5.6 ypp, 20.7 yards per point
Marshall Defense avg 75 plays, 328 yards, 4.4 ypp, 20.1 yards per point

Marshalls statistics look dominant. So, who have they played and how good are their opponents?

Mia (OH) 0-5 with losses to E. Ky, Michigan, Cincy, Buffalo, Marshall
Ohio (3-2) wins vs. Kent State, Idaho, E. Illinois, Losses to Kentucky, Marshall
Akron(2-2) wins vs. Howard and Pittsburgh, losses to Penn State and Marshall


The difficulty in comparing statistics of the two teams is ODUs schedule has been significantly tougher (imo) and the teams their opponents have played are in another class than the teams Marshall has played. Thus, I think simply stating the statistics I posted earlier (and comparing to season averages of opponents) significantly overstates the difference in these two teams. Call me crazy, but when looking at Marshalls schedule, this ODU game may be their toughest game of the year. (actually backed up by ESPNs FPI Index)

Home- Rhode Island, Ohio, MTSU, Rice, FAU, Western Ky
Away- Miami (OH), Akron, ODU, FIU, Southern Miss, UAB

Admittedly, I haven't seen a ton of Marshall this year. I tried to go back and watch the Akron game, but Akron's offense was so pathetic it wasn't worth my time and I turned off. I watched a few plays where Marshall got zero pressure and the Akron QB still couldn't hit his target.

Marshall is very efficient on offense and just churning out yardage at a rate of almost 8 yards per play. Running game is averaging almost 7 yards per rush. What I find concerning for Marshall is they are only completing 56% of passes, but 9 yards per attempt; they must be attempting a bunch of passes downfield.


Comparing lines:

NC State -15.5 at home.....implies Marshall -10is vs. NC State
Eastern Mich +20.5....implies Marshall 38.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
Rice -10.5........implies Marshall -14 vs. Rice
MTSU.......implies Marshall -15 vs. MTSU

The line history implies Marshall being over valued to me.

 

[HammersSpreads]

This is fantastic thread. i have no real words for it besides simply amazing. Hell of a lot of information.

I can tell ya that Marshall is an incredibly difficult team to figure out on the road. As Kyle pointed out, I think Vegas is now making adjustments in the lines to how bad they have been. It was 2-14 ATS as road chalk, and I stupidly put a big bet on Akron against them 2 weeks ago and Marshall covered easily....so I guess they are now 3-14 as road chalk.

I watched the Akron game and that was a whole lot of Akron kicking theirselves early that lead to Marshall getting out to a big lead. Akron was really slow and flat to start the game, and got ran all over. And Akron has a good front 7....amazing how they got molested by Marshall but then went on the road to Pitt last week and played to their potential. So I really had a hard time taking away just how good the Herd are. Their offense is most likely really good....really balanced at all levels. Cato is really really good, good WR's, and a RB that is big and powerful and a small fast RB as well. Defense looks improved, but again who have they played to really test them?? They haven't played a QB as good as what they will see this weekend for sure.

Anyway, Marshall is really good and Cato is really really good, but I think they will still mess up somewhere on the road this year. I'd guess UAB now since Akron didn't make it happen. I'll be rooting for ODU to pull the upset, and I'm stubborn so I'm going to be betting ODU and every single road game Marshall plays until I get my money back from the Akron loss or they run out of road games. Bc I'm a retard.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Excellent thread. A lot of smart analysis.

Keep up the good work.

 

[Dollaz]

This is fantastic thread. i have no real words for it besides simply amazing. Hell of a lot of information.

I can tell ya that Marshall is an incredibly difficult team to figure out on the road. As Kyle pointed out, I think Vegas is now making adjustments in the lines to how bad they have been. It was 2-14 ATS as road chalk, and I stupidly put a big bet on Akron against them 2 weeks ago and Marshall covered easily....so I guess they are now 3-14 as road chalk.

I watched the Akron game and that was a whole lot of Akron kicking theirselves early that lead to Marshall getting out to a big lead. Akron was really slow and flat to start the game, and got ran all over. And Akron has a good front 7....amazing how they got molested by Marshall but then went on the road to Pitt last week and played to their potential. So I really had a hard time taking away just how good the Herd are. Their offense is most likely really good....really balanced at all levels. Cato is really really good, good WR's, and a RB that is big and powerful and a small fast RB as well. Defense looks improved, but again who have they played to really test them?? They haven't played a QB as good as what they will see this weekend for sure.

Anyway, Marshall is really good and Cato is really really good, but I think they will still mess up somewhere on the road this year. I'd guess UAB now since Akron didn't make it happen. I'll be rooting for ODU to pull the upset, and I'm stubborn so I'm going to be betting ODU and every single road game Marshall plays until I get my money back from the Akron loss or they run out of road games. Bc I'm a retard.

I agree with this. I know Marshalls offense is good. I know at a minimum they are going to score 35 points on ODU. I don't think they can turn the ball over enough to fail to score 35.

But, how good is their defense?

Miami (OH)- scored 27 points, gained 418 yards; 4.92 yards per play, 15.5 yards per point. Their QB was 24-49 for 318 yards, 3 td, 1 int. THis kid has had 1 game where he threw for a 50% completion percentage. There offense is not very good....not a great defensive performance for Marshall.

Ohio- Scored 14 points, gained 377 yards; 5.39 yards per play, 27 yards per point. Another one that appears to be s bad offense. Scored 17 vs. Kent St, 3 vs. Kentucky, 36 vs. Idaho, 34 vs. Eastern Illinois

Akron- 17 points, gained 343 yards, 4.58 yards per play, 20.2 yards per point. Akron is another team with no offense at all.

I'm guessing that Marshall has a solid defense, but nowhere close to what the numbers show right now due to playing just pathetic offenses. They are getting a new look this weekend as they face a very good offense with a very good QB. Their defense was not great last year, how much have they improved? I know Marshall is going to play a man press defense and it's a defense that has done well against ODU when played by Maryland and UNC, but do they have the talent in the backfield similar to those teams? The trouble with manning up vs. ODU is they do have a variety of receivers that can take advantage of it. They have guys that can get past the defense if the OL can hold up. They also are very good at the back shoulder throw.

As of right now, I'm going with 45-31 Marshall.

 

[Dollaz]

Although the over/under is right at my number, I have to play the over at 76. I'm not certain, but I'd venture to guess the over has hit in 80% of ODU games and the books have been slow to adjust. I mean, there is a decent chance Marshall gets into the 50s here. Blindly taking overs has been profitable and the few unders have typically been weather related issues (Norfolk State last year, EMU this year) It's just the style ODU plays, they are gonna try to run 80 plays a game and they will not give up.....they will go for onside kicks, chuck the ball, go for 4th down in their own territory, etc. THere was one drive last week where ODU marched 94 yards on like 7 plays that took 1:30.

Marshall is going to have to prove to me they can hold ODU under 30ish.

 

[barmeezee]

This game might end 56-49 seems bout right

 

[baycreek]

FWIW,

1. The Herd has scored 40+ all 4 weeks and ODU's D is not the best D they have faced so far, so keeping the Herd under 50 is going to be a challenge.

2. There will be a lot of plays!

3. ODU was humiliated last week on national TV, they should bounce back.

the play is OVER and both TTO as well

I was at the game, it was awful they always bounce

 

[Dollaz]

This will be the worst defense Marshall has faced outside of Rhode Island. It will also be the best offense Marshall has faced and far more dynamic than anything they've seen this year.

I think ODU fought hard last week and I'm sure they know that there were a couple plays away from winning the game. (Stupid punt with the offense on the field, 4 turnovers, and a 65 yard TD pass on 3rd and 13) I think the game was far more competitive than the box score shows especially after spotting MTSU 24-0. Im trying to figure out what the spread would have been if ODU would have won....I can't imagine It would have been 2 tds.

 

[baycreek]

Dollaz, I was at the game and it was over early and ODU hoped it could get back and got close to being almost in the game, but never did. That asswhopping is the great motivator. The back breaker was to WR drop of the ball at the 20 and it turned into a touchback, and we never rebounded.

 

[Dollaz]

ODU had the ball in MTSU territory with 3 mins left and down 13......it wasn't over. rayer

...at least to diehards like me that have seen them come back from worse. :cheers3:

 

[baycreek]

This is about this week, not last we will have to agree to disagree. If ODU does not refocus and play better this weeks loss will be tremendous and all our over plans will be shot. For this weeks game to go over I stand by my 3 keys. Last weeks loss being bad is key to a good week this one. If ODU does not believe it has a lot of work ahead and that they were in the last game then they have not hit bottom of the reality of the CUSA. All the fans in Norfolk were talking Bowl games last week. 5 wins will be a challenge lets hope they play well this week and show they can hang. I think covering 17 will be a bigger challenge than going Over the Total, if it does not rain.

 

[Dollaz]

Im not really sure what there is to disagree with. ODU spotted MTSU a 24 point lead and then had 2 chances down 10 with the ball in the 3rd quarter (and maybe 4th). They then had the ball down 13 with 5 mins left and the ball. That isn't a high probability of winning, but it's certainly still a shot at winning when the team has proven it can go 95 yards in a minute and 30 seconds. They played terrible in the first half except for 1 drive and still had a fighting chance with 3 mins left in the game. So yes, they played terrible and against a team that had way more athletes than them...........but they still had a shot. Giving up a punt return td (with offense in the game) and 3 turnovers in a half puts you in a hole. Despite that, ODU competed very well in the 2nd half.

What that means for Marshall? Well, it may mean that ODU is slightly undervalued and Marshall is slightly overvalued. I personally thought the spread would be 10-14. This spread is representative of playing on the road vs. UNC and Maryland last year. Is Marshall that much better than UNC and Maryland from last year. Marshall beat Maryland in the bowl pretty handidly, but I was under the assumption Maryland was pretty banged up in that game.

I have a real uncertainty about this Marshall team. Probably far less certainty than any team we've faced this year. I know they are better athletes, but I don't feel like that defense has been tested and Marshall has been known to play like crap on the road. Not a strong opinion, but I do feel the game should go over and I would predict ODU to cover (no bet). Though, I will say as a standard homer that throws away a unit every time ODU is a dog, I did play them on the moneyline (just to go crazy if they win). That is not something I would recommend for anyone......

As for an outlook on the season, I thought 6-6 would be a great season. Im shocked we beat Rice.

3-2 with:

Marshall
@UTEP
@WKY
@Vandy
FIU
LT
@FAU

CUSA did us no favors (Rice, MT, Marshall btbtb and 2 straight roadies before Vandy), but I think we have a good shot in competing in every game after Marshall and probably winning at least 2-3. At this point, we probably should be Vandy, but that game isn't for another month.

 

[baycreek]

Well week by week. The numbers look good for a cover and going over this week.

If we play like we did last week we may not recover emotionally, but I expect a rebound on O. If we only protect the ball as we should. Lets talk Bowl games in November

 

[baycreek]

GO MONARCHS!!

 

[Dollaz]

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