Marlo's NFL week 11

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Marlo's NFL week 12

113-86-2 +28.64

New York Bretts @ Tennessee

Depending on your line, Tennessee is 10-0 ATS this year. Some how this team just gets it done every week, this is no doubt one of the bigger games of the year for them. There is some talk about them coming out flat potentially here, but I disagree. There is something about winning, similar to New England last year, that once you get a taste of it you just want it more and more. <O:p</O:p

Tennessee has dominated at home, where The Jets have been only ok on the road. There defense also gives up far more yards on the road than they do at home. Now I know Tennessee is a little dinged up on the defensive line, Vanden Bosch currently listed as questionable, and there missing two key CBS…but Tennessee is a system on defense, Fischer is one of the best coaches in the league and can plug players in to be successful. New York relies on a heavy dose of the run, to open up the play action pass for Favre. I’m pretty sure the Titans will shut down Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. So that set’s up Brett Favre to beat you through the air. Favre is known for taking chances, and throwing Interceptions. Personally I believe that the Tennessee defense will be all over him, and will capitalize on Brett taking chances. Tennessee is third best with 15 picks, sixth best with 28 sacks and is No. 1 in take-away to give-away ratio at plus 10, 20 take-aways to 10 give-aways. Tennesee is out scoring there opponents by an average margin of 10 pts @ home 25 pts for, and 15 pts against.

Also ask yourself this question as hot as New York is right now, and looking at there 7-3 record, whom have they beat?

Barely beat Miami on opening day, followed that up with a big time game against New England and lost...Lost to the Chargers by 19. Beat Arizona in a sandwich spot for AZ. Then beat Cinci, who is terrible, the next week went to Oak and lost SU. Then rattled off wins against KC, Buff, St. Louis, and then a big time revenge game squeaked out a win against New England.

So breaking that down they don't really have a overly impressive win at all this year. Based on Situations you could say beating AZ & NE were impressive, but those games they benefited because of revenge or travel via the other team.

My opinion Jets make one to many mistakes and lose this one 24-14.

My Play Titans -5 2.5 units

4-10 -4.29
:cheers:
 
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!Homer Alert!


Vikings @ Jacksonville
<O:p

Minnesota goes into Jacksonville tied atop the NFC Central division with Chicago/Green Bay. All 3 teams currently sit at 5-5. Jacksonville comes off a loss against Tennessee that ultimately took them out of Playoff Contention this year. This year has been pretty much a let down for the Jags, because they had high hopes after last years big run into the playoffs. Even if Jacksonville wins out they have a very small chance of getting into the Playoffs. There big loss against Cincy two weeks ago was the icing on the cake, and then letting Tennessee get come back in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half last week pretty much sealed their fate.

Minnesota’s defense caters to Jacksonville’s strength. Jacksonville has stated thay are going to try and pound the run with MJD, and Fred Taylor. I’m ok with that knowing the Vikings defense gives up only 75 yards per game. Jared Allen and the Williams wall will all be playing. Jacksonville doesn’t have a great passing game. Jacksonville has not had a home field advantage this year where they have lost 4 of 5 home games.

Minnesota’s biggest problem all year has been protecting the ball, and not making mistakes. Last week we saw a very conservative approach by Childress against Tampa Bay. Peterson wasn’t a big factor and neither was Berrien . Look for Childress to dial up Petersons number quite a bit more this week, as well as taking a few more chances down field. Minnesota has been successful this year when they start out fast.

Key for Minnesota to win this game is to open up the playbook, and not have turnovers. This defense has continued to beat teams, but when given short fields they often give up points.

<O:p
Minnesota has everything to play for and Childress has to make it to the Playoffs this year or he is done. To say he is coaching every game for his job, doesn’t do it justice. Jacksonville has nothing to play for. I expect a blowout here. I know scary!!!!


My Play Vikings ML +115 2.5 units
<O:p</O:p
 
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Philly @ Baltimore

Couple things here why I like this bet. Baltimore is coming home after 3 straight road games, Where they gave up 30, 13, and 27 pts. At home this year their defense has played extremely strong, allowing only 43 combined points this year. After the thrashing last week on the hands of the Gmen, I expect a much bigger performance from the Baltimore defense. The Eagles will more than likely be hung over from the Cincy game where the ended in a Tie.

Couple other key points
  • Philly blitzes the most of any team in the league recording 36 sacks.
  • On defense both teams dont allow 100 yards per game
  • Baltimore ranks in the top 3 in stopping the run, total yards, and interceptions.
  • Baltimore hasnt allowed a 100 yard rusher in 2 seasons
  • Out of the last 10 H2H matchups they have only exceeded this total once, but putting up 43 combined points.
It should be a pretty nice day tomorrow in Baltimore (42 degrees).
Last week Philly didnt look to get there running game going, and it costed them a W. So look for Philly to try and establish some kind of running game with out success, and have Donavan try and pass and beat Baltimore...I like that. Also Flacco has been very impressive, but also look for Philly to blitz him, so establishing a running game for Baltimore will be key.

My Play
Philly/Baltimore Under 39.5 2 units
 
Love the Titans for all the reasons you mention. Love the Vikings as well. They have something to play for, their D matches up well against Jax, and the Jags just lost a crushing game to their most hated team. I can't see how they're going to be emotionally invested in Sunday's game.

Hope we win them both. GL Marlo.
 
Good stuff marlo, i know you have heard this question before but what do you think about the cowboys total. After what you wrote about the eagles i think thats a better play than the boyz over.
 
Hey Marlo, good luck on the play and I have no side here. BTW, how is Cassel going to look in Purple next year?
 
Thanks for the kind wishes fellas.

Answer a few of the questions

Minny's defense will have everyone there suppose to have this year.

Cassel has done well, I wouldn't mind to see him in purple.

Cap, sorry brother, I dont think this one will be close
 
bukii65 said:
Good stuff marlo, i know you have heard this question before but what do you think about the cowboys total. After what you wrote about the eagles i think thats a better play than the boyz over.
Click to expand...

Dallas/San Fran

TO has said in the media again this week that he is not happy with how the Cowboys offense has played this year. He also said that he believes other teams have caught on to OC Jason Garrets' schemes and that he hasnt done a good enough job of adapting. I think the last game on the road gave Romo the comfort he needed to ease himself back in. So from an X and O's standpoint, I believe the Cowboys will look to put some points on the board here as well.

Dallas has put up 41, 24, 31, and 13 pts up at home. The 13 was obviously when Brad Johnson/Brooks Bollinger played.

San Fran has given up 29, 29, 30, and 31 on the road so far this year.

Like I said above I believe Dallas will look to put some points on the board today. San Fran can score as well if this team gets in a shoot out. I know Singeltary has stressed running the ball, but I also can see Dallas getting out to a early lead, making San Fran play catchup.

My Play

San Fran/Dallas over 46 1.5 unit
 
GL today Marlo. With you on Tenny. I like CAR and NE as well today. CAR is playing very well and going against a soft rush D in ATL and I feel MIA is winning with smoke and mirrors and NE will be amped for this game. Cassel is really stepping up over the past few weeks and is a completely different player from the first game.

GL on your totals. I like the PHI/BAL under and I may tail you on that one.
 
Let's hope so Marlo. JAX is very overrated at home as a favorite. Seems like they hardly ever cover.
 
KC +135 1unit

So close recently, yet so far away. They may best 1-9 team there is. Thigpen has figured it out, and with that so has there offense. Right now the only thing that should scare KC about Buffalo is Buffalo's running game. Edwards has been absolutely horrendous lately...I may be buying KC a little high, and selling Buff at there low, but from what I have seen over the last 3 weeks...one team is clearly improving while the other is digressing.
 
GL today Marlo.
Hoping for lots of points today in Dallas as well. And would love to see the Chiefs get the Win in Arrowhead today.

Here's to a winning day :cheers:
 
*****Double Revenge******

Indy comes into tonights tilt to face the Chargers after they got beat by San Diego in the regular season, and then came into Indianapolis and beat them as 10 pt dogs. Manning threw 6 picts last year in his two games against San Diego, and there defense had there way with them. So what more could the Colts want in a major primetime game that is very important for both teams, than to come in and play spoiler on the Chargers.

Remember what San Diego did to New England when they had revenge?

Chargers are much different team than they were last year. Merriman the heart and sole of there defense is gone, and has dramitcally impacted there performance. The Chargers are ranked 31st against the pass this year. The Colts are ranked 25th against the run this year, and will be with out Bob Sanders, which will be huge, but right now containing LT is a tad easier than it was in either of there last two tilts. The Colts have also faired well against teams that run the same 3/4 defense that SD runs. Last year they fed off the pass rush, this year they dont have one. Allowing a player like Peyton to have all the time in the world is not good. Peyton shouldn't have any problems picking this team apart.

Both teams need the game worse than the other does.

Colts +135 5units


-Fade away, been by far my single worst day ever betting on Pro Football. I know this is a very public play.


 
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