Marlins vs. Braves: MLB Best Bets
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Breaking Down Sixto Sanchez
22-year-old Miami starter Sixto Sanchez (1-1, 2.37 ERA) has made a strong impression after his first three starts.
The key to breaking down tonight’s betting pick is to figure out why Sanchez has been so successful so far.
As scouting reports confirm, Sanchez has two plus offerings. His fastball is his highest-graded pitch. It is yielding a .375 BA purely because of his debut against Washington.
His change-up is his other best pitch. Opponents are hitting .103 against it. This pitch complements his fastball. Its 9.5-mph velocity differential creates a strong change of pace and its movement is heavy.
Note that his change-up’s success is largely predicated on his fastball’s success. If opponents hit his fastball well, then they don’t need to brace for this pitch and the velocity differential between his fastball and change-up loses its effectiveness.
Clearly, Sanchez’s fastball has been too difficult for most of his opponents, which helps explain why his change-up’s opposing BA is so low.
Sanchez’s fastball velocity is amazing as it remains in the high 90s throughout an outing. It averages 98.85 mph.
So is Sanchez’s ERA so low because his stuff is amazing?
There is nothing in his scouting reports to suggest that his stuff is unique or in any way presents an element of surprise. A fastball-change-up combination is extremely ordinary.
A surprise element could have explained why Sanchez is suddenly striking out more batters per nine innings on a professional level than he did in the minors.
Instead, Sanchez has benefitted from facing very positive match-ups for him.
His two good and best outings, which are the outings responsible for his low ERA, came against Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in slugging against high-velociy (average 95-99 mph) pitches from righties while Toronto ranks 29th in the category.
In contrast, the Nationals rank 16th in this category and they produced three runs against Sanchez in five innings, which amounts to a 5.40 ERA.
Sanchez vs Atlanta Batters
I like Atlanta’s lineup today because the Braves rank second in slugging .510 against high-velo pitches from righties. They also rank as highly in hitting Sanchez’s favorite pitches.
Look out especially for Freddie Freeman. Freeman is slugging .648 against righties and .690 at home. He’s also slugging an insane 1.167 against high-velo pitches.
Kyle Wright
Due to offseason departures, injuries, and poor performances, Atlanta’s starting rotation has been in a desperate mess.
Now Kyle Wright (0-3, 7.20 ERA) is ready to make his first start since August 14.
It’s difficult to imagine Wright being any different — in a positive sense — for two reasons.
One, Wright has always been this bad. In 15 career appearances, his ERA is 7.52.
Two, Wright has a horrible track record when returning from a long rest period.
In his career, he is 0-3 with a 13.97 ERA in the three career starts that he’s made off of six or more days’ of rest.
Wright has terrible confidence in his stuff and this is rightly so.
His fastball, change-up, and curveball are each yielding a slugging rate over .500.
These three pitches combine to make up 50 percent of his arsenal. So he throws a lot of extremely hittable pitches.
The rest of his stuff doesn’t offer much more promise.
Because he’s so hittable, he avoids the strike zone as if it were the pest. His low strike percentage contributes to the fact that he’s walking 9.60 batters per nine innings.
Whether Wright is walking batters or yielding hard contact (which he does on almost half of his pitches) and high slugging rates, he allows many batters to reach base and score.
Wright vs Marlins Batters
Match-up is irrelevant here because of how poor Wright is.
Philadelphia, for example, ranks bottom-10 in slugging against Wright’s favorite pitches from righties. But he still yielded a 6.00 ERA against the Phillies.
Among Marlin batters, look out for Miguel Rojas. He is on fire in September, producing a .462 BA and .692 slugging rate in this month.
The Verdict
It’s tempting to pick a side in this contest. At plus money in an even match-up, Miami would be the best side to take.
But my favorite play on this game involves the total because I don’t want to back a pitcher who I think will struggle.
Atlanta is salivating to face Sanchez it matches up well with his high velocity and favorite pitches.
Miami will also score a lot of runs because Wright has been terrible and is in a horrible spot after so much rest.
In order to focus on both starting pitches, I will confine my „over“ play to the first five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 8, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Breaking Down Sixto Sanchez
22-year-old Miami starter Sixto Sanchez (1-1, 2.37 ERA) has made a strong impression after his first three starts.
The key to breaking down tonight’s betting pick is to figure out why Sanchez has been so successful so far.
As scouting reports confirm, Sanchez has two plus offerings. His fastball is his highest-graded pitch. It is yielding a .375 BA purely because of his debut against Washington.
His change-up is his other best pitch. Opponents are hitting .103 against it. This pitch complements his fastball. Its 9.5-mph velocity differential creates a strong change of pace and its movement is heavy.
Note that his change-up’s success is largely predicated on his fastball’s success. If opponents hit his fastball well, then they don’t need to brace for this pitch and the velocity differential between his fastball and change-up loses its effectiveness.
Clearly, Sanchez’s fastball has been too difficult for most of his opponents, which helps explain why his change-up’s opposing BA is so low.
Sanchez’s fastball velocity is amazing as it remains in the high 90s throughout an outing. It averages 98.85 mph.
So is Sanchez’s ERA so low because his stuff is amazing?
There is nothing in his scouting reports to suggest that his stuff is unique or in any way presents an element of surprise. A fastball-change-up combination is extremely ordinary.
A surprise element could have explained why Sanchez is suddenly striking out more batters per nine innings on a professional level than he did in the minors.
Instead, Sanchez has benefitted from facing very positive match-ups for him.
His two good and best outings, which are the outings responsible for his low ERA, came against Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Tampa Bay ranks 26th in slugging against high-velociy (average 95-99 mph) pitches from righties while Toronto ranks 29th in the category.
In contrast, the Nationals rank 16th in this category and they produced three runs against Sanchez in five innings, which amounts to a 5.40 ERA.
Sanchez vs Atlanta Batters
I like Atlanta’s lineup today because the Braves rank second in slugging .510 against high-velo pitches from righties. They also rank as highly in hitting Sanchez’s favorite pitches.
Look out especially for Freddie Freeman. Freeman is slugging .648 against righties and .690 at home. He’s also slugging an insane 1.167 against high-velo pitches.
Kyle Wright
Due to offseason departures, injuries, and poor performances, Atlanta’s starting rotation has been in a desperate mess.
Now Kyle Wright (0-3, 7.20 ERA) is ready to make his first start since August 14.
It’s difficult to imagine Wright being any different — in a positive sense — for two reasons.
One, Wright has always been this bad. In 15 career appearances, his ERA is 7.52.
Two, Wright has a horrible track record when returning from a long rest period.
In his career, he is 0-3 with a 13.97 ERA in the three career starts that he’s made off of six or more days’ of rest.
Wright has terrible confidence in his stuff and this is rightly so.
His fastball, change-up, and curveball are each yielding a slugging rate over .500.
These three pitches combine to make up 50 percent of his arsenal. So he throws a lot of extremely hittable pitches.
The rest of his stuff doesn’t offer much more promise.
Because he’s so hittable, he avoids the strike zone as if it were the pest. His low strike percentage contributes to the fact that he’s walking 9.60 batters per nine innings.
Whether Wright is walking batters or yielding hard contact (which he does on almost half of his pitches) and high slugging rates, he allows many batters to reach base and score.
Wright vs Marlins Batters
Match-up is irrelevant here because of how poor Wright is.
Philadelphia, for example, ranks bottom-10 in slugging against Wright’s favorite pitches from righties. But he still yielded a 6.00 ERA against the Phillies.
Among Marlin batters, look out for Miguel Rojas. He is on fire in September, producing a .462 BA and .692 slugging rate in this month.
The Verdict
It’s tempting to pick a side in this contest. At plus money in an even match-up, Miami would be the best side to take.
But my favorite play on this game involves the total because I don’t want to back a pitcher who I think will struggle.
Atlanta is salivating to face Sanchez it matches up well with his high velocity and favorite pitches.
Miami will also score a lot of runs because Wright has been terrible and is in a horrible spot after so much rest.
In order to focus on both starting pitches, I will confine my „over“ play to the first five innings.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
