MLB Parlay for July 7: A Bet That Pays (+331)
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts lefty Daniel Castano.
Despite only making four starts, Castano is Miami's second-most profitable pitcher.
He is yielding +2.3 units overall.
Officially, he is 1-0 as a starter.
His Marlins, however, are 3-1 in his starts.
Castano's Stuff
Castano possesses a rather unique pitching arsenal.
His favorite pitch to throw is a cutter.
He throws this pitch 45 percent of the time.
Heat maps illustrate the extent to which Castano succeeds in locating his cutter away from the more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Besides locating it well, Castano puts a nice amount of spin on it.
Thus, in addition to struggling to reach his cutter with their bat, hitters have trouble tracking its trajectory.
Moreover, Castano's cutter is tight. In contrast to its spin rate, its movement is limited.
Given its features, opponents hit .196 against this pitch.
Crucially, Castano is therefore intelligent with his pitch selection because he throws effective stuff most often.
Besides a cutter, Castano features a slider.
This is, by far, his second-favorite pitch.
He throws it with 27.7-percent frequency.
His slider is his best whiff pitch because of its typically low and borderline location and because of its high spin rate.
Castano vs. Met Batters
I like Castano today because he matches up well with New York given the pitches that he prefers to throw.
The Mets rank 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Today, New York starts Trevor Williams.
Throughout the season, Williams has been bouncing between his team's starting rotation and the bullpen.
His longest outing was five innings this season.
It is much more common for him to endure fewer innings.
Williams vs. Marlin Batters
However, because he can pitch the bulk of today's innings for his team and because he'll certainly try to, it remains decisive to know how Marlin batters match up with him.
Typical of relievers, Williams' pitching arsenal lacks variety.
He favors one pitch most extensively.
By far, his favorite pitch is his fastball.
Marlin batters look promising today because they rank eighth in slugging against this pitch.
With both bullpens about equal in terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) and with Miami's bullpen having effective guys like Jimmy Yacabonis ready to go, Miami's advantage in starting pitching will be what decides this game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Detroit?
Detroit starts Beau Brieske tonight.
Brieske is coming off a bit of a tough-luck outing against the Royals in which he yielded a 4.50 ERA despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact.
His 3.61 FIP in that outing reflects the fact that he performed much better individually.
Before that outing, he had to pitch in Arizona with its difficult dry climate and intimidating Fenway Park.
Brieske vs. White Sox Batters
For match-up-related reasons, Brieske's test will be significantly easier today.
Primarily Brieske throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
These are the three pitches that he throws over five percent of the time, and he throws each one with more than 19 percent frequency.
Brieske's favorite pitch is his fastball which he distributes well throughout the strike zone.
He puts a solid amount of spin on this pitch, often elevating it in the strike zone in order to give it the appearance of rising action, thus inducing batters to swing underneath it.
Then, he'll play this pitch well off his other primary stuff by locating his other favorite pitchers low in the strike zone, thereby changing the batter's eye level.
Brieske matches up well with White Sox batters because they rank 28thin slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease, who has yielded one earned run or fewer in each of his last seven starts.
In addition to showing strong form, Cease matches up well with Tiger batters.
They rank last in slugging against Cease's favorite pitches.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at +138 & Tigers/White Sox under 8.5 at -123 at +331 odds with BetOnline
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Who Starts for Miami?
Miami starts lefty Daniel Castano.
Despite only making four starts, Castano is Miami's second-most profitable pitcher.
He is yielding +2.3 units overall.
Officially, he is 1-0 as a starter.
His Marlins, however, are 3-1 in his starts.
Castano's Stuff
Castano possesses a rather unique pitching arsenal.
His favorite pitch to throw is a cutter.
He throws this pitch 45 percent of the time.
Heat maps illustrate the extent to which Castano succeeds in locating his cutter away from the more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Besides locating it well, Castano puts a nice amount of spin on it.
Thus, in addition to struggling to reach his cutter with their bat, hitters have trouble tracking its trajectory.
Moreover, Castano's cutter is tight. In contrast to its spin rate, its movement is limited.
Given its features, opponents hit .196 against this pitch.
Crucially, Castano is therefore intelligent with his pitch selection because he throws effective stuff most often.
Besides a cutter, Castano features a slider.
This is, by far, his second-favorite pitch.
He throws it with 27.7-percent frequency.
His slider is his best whiff pitch because of its typically low and borderline location and because of its high spin rate.
Castano vs. Met Batters
I like Castano today because he matches up well with New York given the pitches that he prefers to throw.
The Mets rank 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Mets?
Today, New York starts Trevor Williams.
Throughout the season, Williams has been bouncing between his team's starting rotation and the bullpen.
His longest outing was five innings this season.
It is much more common for him to endure fewer innings.
Williams vs. Marlin Batters
However, because he can pitch the bulk of today's innings for his team and because he'll certainly try to, it remains decisive to know how Marlin batters match up with him.
Typical of relievers, Williams' pitching arsenal lacks variety.
He favors one pitch most extensively.
By far, his favorite pitch is his fastball.
Marlin batters look promising today because they rank eighth in slugging against this pitch.
With both bullpens about equal in terms of FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) and with Miami's bullpen having effective guys like Jimmy Yacabonis ready to go, Miami's advantage in starting pitching will be what decides this game.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 7, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Detroit?
Detroit starts Beau Brieske tonight.
Brieske is coming off a bit of a tough-luck outing against the Royals in which he yielded a 4.50 ERA despite doing a superb job of limiting hard contact.
His 3.61 FIP in that outing reflects the fact that he performed much better individually.
Before that outing, he had to pitch in Arizona with its difficult dry climate and intimidating Fenway Park.
Brieske vs. White Sox Batters
For match-up-related reasons, Brieske's test will be significantly easier today.
Primarily Brieske throws a fastball, changeup, and slider.
These are the three pitches that he throws over five percent of the time, and he throws each one with more than 19 percent frequency.
Brieske's favorite pitch is his fastball which he distributes well throughout the strike zone.
He puts a solid amount of spin on this pitch, often elevating it in the strike zone in order to give it the appearance of rising action, thus inducing batters to swing underneath it.
Then, he'll play this pitch well off his other primary stuff by locating his other favorite pitchers low in the strike zone, thereby changing the batter's eye level.
Brieske matches up well with White Sox batters because they rank 28thin slugging against his three favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Chicago?
Chicago starts Dylan Cease, who has yielded one earned run or fewer in each of his last seven starts.
In addition to showing strong form, Cease matches up well with Tiger batters.
They rank last in slugging against Cease's favorite pitches.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at +138 & Tigers/White Sox under 8.5 at -123 at +331 odds with BetOnline
