Mariners Will Be Navy Strong Against White Sox
Seattle hosts the White Sox on Saturday at 10:10 ET. There aren’t many spots in which you’ll want to back the White Sox and this isn’t one of them.
White Sox at Mariners
MLB Pick: Seattle
Chicago is 1-5 in Dylan Covey’s (3-5, 5.69 ERA) road starts, yielding -2.5 units. Covey has surrendered an average of six runs in his last three road starts and conceded four runs or more in his last five starts overall. He lost four of those.
Covey’s favorite pitch is his sinker, which he throws with 64% frequency. He relies on it most in all scenarios, especially to induce ground balls. He usually keeps it outside the strike zone, but when he doesn’t, it tends to land in the lowest row of the zone. Covey throws it with strong velocity and movement, but also frequently makes location errors, leaving it in the three most middle parts of the zone with 17% frequency, where opponents are slugging over .600 against it. He concedes the highest ratio of doubles with this pitch. The biggest difference between Covey’s sinker and the high-velo sinker of a Noah Syndergaard is that the latter’s pitch is in the upper-third in spin rate, while Covey’s is in the bottom-fourth. Covey’s sinker is hittable because its lack of spin makes it easier to track for opposing batters. Two of Covey’s last five opponents, both of which beat him, ranked outside the top 20 against the sinker from righties before facing him. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging percentage is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Seattle is one of the most underachieving teams in slugging against the sinker from righties.
The slider is Covey’s second favorite pitch. He features it against righties. It’s velocity is nice, but he makes the same location errors with it as he does with his sinker, without being able to add nearly the same movement to it. Seattle ranks fifth in slugging against the slider from righties.
He struggles particularly against lefties and lefties on the road. Look for Denard Span, who is batting .375 in his past seven days, Dee Gordon, who is batting .294 in July, and especially Ben Gamel, who is slugging .556 in his past seven days, batting .303 against righties, and .349 at home.
The White Sox are 2-10 in their last 12 West Coast games and 5-21 on the road against teams with a winning record. They’re the third-least profitable team, especially thanks to their road struggles.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-7 5.13 ERA) has a 3.03 career ERA with 6+ days’ rest and .219 opposing BA.
Because of the declining velocity of the aging Hernandez, he no longer trusts his fastball like he used to. Hernandez doesn’t rely on any one pitch with more than 28% frequency, but the sinker, curve, and change-up make up about 80% of his pitching arsenal. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the zone. In addition to its location, his sinker’s vertical movement makes it his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch.
Metrically, Chicago is the seventh most overachieving team in slugging against the sinker, curve, and change-up. They rank 26th in slugging on the road against these three pitches. Hernandez’ weakness is opposing lefties, but Chicago only has two switch-hitters with an above-average OPS (on-base plus slugging) against righties, Yolmer Sanchez and Yoan Moncada. Hernandez is 5-0 against teams with a losing record. The M’s are 12-4 at home against losing teams. Seattle is one of the most profitable teams, especially because it’s yielding +10.1 units at home.
For good measure, Seattle’s bullpen ranks fifth in ERA at home. Chicago’s is 29th on the road. It seems like Chicago has many second-half meltdowns and Seattle’s bullpen will ensure a winning bet.
Seattle hosts the White Sox on Saturday at 10:10 ET. There aren’t many spots in which you’ll want to back the White Sox and this isn’t one of them.
White Sox at Mariners
MLB Pick: Seattle
Chicago is 1-5 in Dylan Covey’s (3-5, 5.69 ERA) road starts, yielding -2.5 units. Covey has surrendered an average of six runs in his last three road starts and conceded four runs or more in his last five starts overall. He lost four of those.
Covey’s favorite pitch is his sinker, which he throws with 64% frequency. He relies on it most in all scenarios, especially to induce ground balls. He usually keeps it outside the strike zone, but when he doesn’t, it tends to land in the lowest row of the zone. Covey throws it with strong velocity and movement, but also frequently makes location errors, leaving it in the three most middle parts of the zone with 17% frequency, where opponents are slugging over .600 against it. He concedes the highest ratio of doubles with this pitch. The biggest difference between Covey’s sinker and the high-velo sinker of a Noah Syndergaard is that the latter’s pitch is in the upper-third in spin rate, while Covey’s is in the bottom-fourth. Covey’s sinker is hittable because its lack of spin makes it easier to track for opposing batters. Two of Covey’s last five opponents, both of which beat him, ranked outside the top 20 against the sinker from righties before facing him. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging percentage is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Seattle is one of the most underachieving teams in slugging against the sinker from righties.
The slider is Covey’s second favorite pitch. He features it against righties. It’s velocity is nice, but he makes the same location errors with it as he does with his sinker, without being able to add nearly the same movement to it. Seattle ranks fifth in slugging against the slider from righties.
He struggles particularly against lefties and lefties on the road. Look for Denard Span, who is batting .375 in his past seven days, Dee Gordon, who is batting .294 in July, and especially Ben Gamel, who is slugging .556 in his past seven days, batting .303 against righties, and .349 at home.
The White Sox are 2-10 in their last 12 West Coast games and 5-21 on the road against teams with a winning record. They’re the third-least profitable team, especially thanks to their road struggles.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-7 5.13 ERA) has a 3.03 career ERA with 6+ days’ rest and .219 opposing BA.
Because of the declining velocity of the aging Hernandez, he no longer trusts his fastball like he used to. Hernandez doesn’t rely on any one pitch with more than 28% frequency, but the sinker, curve, and change-up make up about 80% of his pitching arsenal. His three most frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the zone. In addition to its location, his sinker’s vertical movement makes it his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch.
Metrically, Chicago is the seventh most overachieving team in slugging against the sinker, curve, and change-up. They rank 26th in slugging on the road against these three pitches. Hernandez’ weakness is opposing lefties, but Chicago only has two switch-hitters with an above-average OPS (on-base plus slugging) against righties, Yolmer Sanchez and Yoan Moncada. Hernandez is 5-0 against teams with a losing record. The M’s are 12-4 at home against losing teams. Seattle is one of the most profitable teams, especially because it’s yielding +10.1 units at home.
For good measure, Seattle’s bullpen ranks fifth in ERA at home. Chicago’s is 29th on the road. It seems like Chicago has many second-half meltdowns and Seattle’s bullpen will ensure a winning bet.
