Mariners vs. Dodgers: MLB Picks
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Are The Dodgers A No-Brainer?
If you looked at a schedule and saw that both teams were playing each other, then the Dodgers would seem like a no-brainer given each team’s respective record.
But here’s why you shouldn’t bet on the heavily favored Dodgers.
Match-up specific details indicate that they will not be the dominant team that MLB oddsmakers regard them as.
Marco Gonzales vs Dodgers
One reason why Los Angeles is respected so highly by oddsmakers is that it ranks third in team runs per game.
However, the Dodgers score so many runs because they thrive against right-handed pitching.
They slug .477 against right-handed pitchers.
But Marco Gonzales (2-2, 3.97 ERA), Seattle’s starter, is a lefty.
He matches up well with the Dodgers because they rank 24th in batting only .210 against left-handed pitchers.
Marco’s Stuff
Some teams struggle against left-handed pitchers overall, but still perform well against a select number of pitches from lefties.
One unique aspect about Gonzales is that he doesn’t rely too heavily on any one pitch. His most frequent pitch is his fastball, which he throws with 35 percent frequency.
Meanwhile, he throws four other pitches, in addition to his fastball, with over 10 percent frequency.
This is Marco Gonzales: he is by no means a flamethrower. But he’ll add strong, elusive movement especially to his sinker and change-up.
He’ll also use deception by mixing the vertical and horizontal release points of both his fastball and his sinker. This mixture prevents the opposing batter from discerning from Gonzales’ delivery which pitch is approaching him.
His variety is not just manifest in his overall pitch selection. But he also keeps batters guessing at each point in the count.
Dodger Batters
One frustrated batter will be Corey Seager.
Seager is a big part of L.A.’s hitting success — but primarily because of his success against right-handed pitchers.
I expect Seager to struggle tonight because he’s batting a paltry .190 against southpaw starters.
Tony Gonsolin
L.A.’s Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is a starter with the variety level of a reliever.
He only has two main pitches. His fastball and splitter combine to make up over 85 percent of his arsenal.
Neither pitch is similar to the other in terms of vertical and horizontal release points, which means that he doesn’t do much to disguise his pitch delivery like Gonzales does.
Hitters can also fairly easily predict which pitch he is going to throw especially given a certain count.
So why is Gonsolin pitching so well (granted, he's only made two starts)?
The key thing that Gonsolin is doing this year that he did not really do last year is offer good location.
Fewer of his pitches are landing in the most middle parts of the zone.
Instead, he’s more consistently flirting with the borders of the strike zone in order to lure the batter into swinging at a borderline strike and making soft contact with it.
Mariners Hitters
In order to succeed against a pitcher with strong location, a lineup needs good plate discipline.
A lineup must have the eye strength and discipline in order to discern more effectively when a pitch will land for a strike and to refrain from swinging at a would-be ball.
One positive aspect about Seattle’s lineup is that it has the ability to address Gonsolin’s good location.
Right now, Seattle owns the sixth-lowest percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone.
Mariner batters are great at laying off of balls outside the strike zone.
Mariner Hitters vs Gonsolin
My main reason for liking Seattle is its match-up advantage against Gonsolin.
The Mariners rank fifth in slugging against Gonsolin’s two favorite pitches — the fastball and splitter — from righties away from home.
It’s important to remember that Seattle has been a strong ‚over‘ team away from home, even though its lineup has poor numbers on the season.
Seattle's road ‚over‘ trend derives largely from its abilities against the types of pitches that Gonsolin will emphasize tonight.
Look out especially for Kyle Lewis. He is hitting .348 and slugging .543 outside of Seattle.
The Verdict
L.A. is highly favored. But match-up analysis reveals significant betting value in Seattle.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, I will bet on the Seattle first-half run-line in order to focus on both starting pitchers and benefit from Seattle being such an underdog.
Be sure to check Bovada for early odds or wait for a lower-juice sportsbook like 5Dimes to release its odds.
Best Bet: Mariners First-Half RL (Odds TBA)
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 6:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Are The Dodgers A No-Brainer?
If you looked at a schedule and saw that both teams were playing each other, then the Dodgers would seem like a no-brainer given each team’s respective record.
But here’s why you shouldn’t bet on the heavily favored Dodgers.
Match-up specific details indicate that they will not be the dominant team that MLB oddsmakers regard them as.
Marco Gonzales vs Dodgers
One reason why Los Angeles is respected so highly by oddsmakers is that it ranks third in team runs per game.
However, the Dodgers score so many runs because they thrive against right-handed pitching.
They slug .477 against right-handed pitchers.
But Marco Gonzales (2-2, 3.97 ERA), Seattle’s starter, is a lefty.
He matches up well with the Dodgers because they rank 24th in batting only .210 against left-handed pitchers.
Marco’s Stuff
Some teams struggle against left-handed pitchers overall, but still perform well against a select number of pitches from lefties.
One unique aspect about Gonzales is that he doesn’t rely too heavily on any one pitch. His most frequent pitch is his fastball, which he throws with 35 percent frequency.
Meanwhile, he throws four other pitches, in addition to his fastball, with over 10 percent frequency.
This is Marco Gonzales: he is by no means a flamethrower. But he’ll add strong, elusive movement especially to his sinker and change-up.
He’ll also use deception by mixing the vertical and horizontal release points of both his fastball and his sinker. This mixture prevents the opposing batter from discerning from Gonzales’ delivery which pitch is approaching him.
His variety is not just manifest in his overall pitch selection. But he also keeps batters guessing at each point in the count.
Dodger Batters
One frustrated batter will be Corey Seager.
Seager is a big part of L.A.’s hitting success — but primarily because of his success against right-handed pitchers.
I expect Seager to struggle tonight because he’s batting a paltry .190 against southpaw starters.
Tony Gonsolin
L.A.’s Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is a starter with the variety level of a reliever.
He only has two main pitches. His fastball and splitter combine to make up over 85 percent of his arsenal.
Neither pitch is similar to the other in terms of vertical and horizontal release points, which means that he doesn’t do much to disguise his pitch delivery like Gonzales does.
Hitters can also fairly easily predict which pitch he is going to throw especially given a certain count.
So why is Gonsolin pitching so well (granted, he's only made two starts)?
The key thing that Gonsolin is doing this year that he did not really do last year is offer good location.
Fewer of his pitches are landing in the most middle parts of the zone.
Instead, he’s more consistently flirting with the borders of the strike zone in order to lure the batter into swinging at a borderline strike and making soft contact with it.
Mariners Hitters
In order to succeed against a pitcher with strong location, a lineup needs good plate discipline.
A lineup must have the eye strength and discipline in order to discern more effectively when a pitch will land for a strike and to refrain from swinging at a would-be ball.
One positive aspect about Seattle’s lineup is that it has the ability to address Gonsolin’s good location.
Right now, Seattle owns the sixth-lowest percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone.
Mariner batters are great at laying off of balls outside the strike zone.
Mariner Hitters vs Gonsolin
My main reason for liking Seattle is its match-up advantage against Gonsolin.
The Mariners rank fifth in slugging against Gonsolin’s two favorite pitches — the fastball and splitter — from righties away from home.
It’s important to remember that Seattle has been a strong ‚over‘ team away from home, even though its lineup has poor numbers on the season.
Seattle's road ‚over‘ trend derives largely from its abilities against the types of pitches that Gonsolin will emphasize tonight.
Look out especially for Kyle Lewis. He is hitting .348 and slugging .543 outside of Seattle.
The Verdict
L.A. is highly favored. But match-up analysis reveals significant betting value in Seattle.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, I will bet on the Seattle first-half run-line in order to focus on both starting pitchers and benefit from Seattle being such an underdog.
Be sure to check Bovada for early odds or wait for a lower-juice sportsbook like 5Dimes to release its odds.
Best Bet: Mariners First-Half RL (Odds TBA)
