Sluggish Bats Keep Dodgers-Mariners Tilt „Under“ on Saturday
Seattle hosts the Dodgers on Saturday night in a match-up between two playoff contenders on the MLB Network. Both lineups have been very quiet lately.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle
MLB Pick: Under
LA’s Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA) shows strong form, conceding two runs or fewer in his last five starts, despite enduring at least six innings in four of them. Hill is a part of LA’s major „under“ streak. The „under“ is 2-0 in his last two starts and is 5-0-1 in LA’s last six games and 8-1-1 in its last 10.
Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curve combo. Both pitches make up 97 percent of his arsenal. He loves to start the batter off with a fastball that he tends to elevate and then throw him off balance by changing pace and changing the batter’s eye level with a curveball low. Although, he stays unpredictable, despite his lack of pitch variety, by often working backwards and starting hitters off with a curveball before finishing them with a fastball. He also varies the location of both pitches well, even elevating his curveball, which is rare for a pitcher to do. Hill can be bold with his curveball location because of its high quality. It’s unique because of its strong horizontal and vertical movement. Opponents are batting .222 against it. Hill’s last four opposing lineups hit .200 or under against it, so it’s an integral part of his success.
The Mariners are slated to regress statistically against both of Hill’s pitches. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s actual slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Seattle is the most overachieving team against the fastball and curveball from lefties. The „under“ has hit in five of Seattle’s last six games. BA leader Jean Segura has only two extra-base hits in August.
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Seattle’s Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75 ERA) suffered an atrocious start to the season before hitting the DL. He returned on August 12 to face Houston and yielded all of three hits, zero runs, and zero walks in five innings.
Ramirez relies on a sinker-cutter-change-up combo. The three pitches make up 77 percent of his arsenal and he mixes in a fastball and slider. He relies primarily on his sinker to start the batter off or when he’s ahead, but otherwise he mixes up his pitches well and doesn’t rely on a pitch in a single scenario with over 38% frequency. Ramirez also remains unpredictable by maintaining similar horizontal and vertical release points between his cutter and slider, which disguises to the batter which pitch is leaving his hand. This disguise is more effective because of how much different in terms of movement both pitches are from each other. This difference between the two pitches means that it’s more difficult for the batter to adjust and catch to whichever pitch is approaching him if he doesn’t figure out which one is approaching him until it’s too late.
The Dodgers match up poorly with Ramirez, ranking below average in slugging against Ramirez’s three favorite pitches. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, the one exception coming when they scored a fourth run in the 12th inning on Wednesday. BA leader and All Star Matt Kemp has been very cold, going 3-for-19 (.158) in his last seven days. In August, he’s batting .139 with only one extra-base hit, a double. Superstar Manny Machado achieved his third multi-hit game in August. After his last three multi-hit games, he went 1-for-4 or 1-for-5 in his next game.
Seattle hosts the Dodgers on Saturday night in a match-up between two playoff contenders on the MLB Network. Both lineups have been very quiet lately.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle
MLB Pick: Under
LA’s Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA) shows strong form, conceding two runs or fewer in his last five starts, despite enduring at least six innings in four of them. Hill is a part of LA’s major „under“ streak. The „under“ is 2-0 in his last two starts and is 5-0-1 in LA’s last six games and 8-1-1 in its last 10.
Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curve combo. Both pitches make up 97 percent of his arsenal. He loves to start the batter off with a fastball that he tends to elevate and then throw him off balance by changing pace and changing the batter’s eye level with a curveball low. Although, he stays unpredictable, despite his lack of pitch variety, by often working backwards and starting hitters off with a curveball before finishing them with a fastball. He also varies the location of both pitches well, even elevating his curveball, which is rare for a pitcher to do. Hill can be bold with his curveball location because of its high quality. It’s unique because of its strong horizontal and vertical movement. Opponents are batting .222 against it. Hill’s last four opposing lineups hit .200 or under against it, so it’s an integral part of his success.
The Mariners are slated to regress statistically against both of Hill’s pitches. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares what a team’s actual slugging rate is with what it should be based on quality of contact, Seattle is the most overachieving team against the fastball and curveball from lefties. The „under“ has hit in five of Seattle’s last six games. BA leader Jean Segura has only two extra-base hits in August.
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Seattle’s Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75 ERA) suffered an atrocious start to the season before hitting the DL. He returned on August 12 to face Houston and yielded all of three hits, zero runs, and zero walks in five innings.
Ramirez relies on a sinker-cutter-change-up combo. The three pitches make up 77 percent of his arsenal and he mixes in a fastball and slider. He relies primarily on his sinker to start the batter off or when he’s ahead, but otherwise he mixes up his pitches well and doesn’t rely on a pitch in a single scenario with over 38% frequency. Ramirez also remains unpredictable by maintaining similar horizontal and vertical release points between his cutter and slider, which disguises to the batter which pitch is leaving his hand. This disguise is more effective because of how much different in terms of movement both pitches are from each other. This difference between the two pitches means that it’s more difficult for the batter to adjust and catch to whichever pitch is approaching him if he doesn’t figure out which one is approaching him until it’s too late.
The Dodgers match up poorly with Ramirez, ranking below average in slugging against Ramirez’s three favorite pitches. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, the one exception coming when they scored a fourth run in the 12th inning on Wednesday. BA leader and All Star Matt Kemp has been very cold, going 3-for-19 (.158) in his last seven days. In August, he’s batting .139 with only one extra-base hit, a double. Superstar Manny Machado achieved his third multi-hit game in August. After his last three multi-hit games, he went 1-for-4 or 1-for-5 in his next game.
Severino still struggling eh?
