MLB Parlay for Today at (+374) Includes Inconsistent Yankees
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Who Starts for Seattle?
Marco Gonzales, his team's least profitable pitcher this season, starts for Seattle today.
This year, Gonzales is performing much worse than his surface stats indicate.
While his 3.97 ERA suggests that he is decent, this ERA masks a 4.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Specifically, he has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Gonzales' Issues
Among other things, Gonzales struggles with keeping the ball on the ground.
While his fly ball-inducing tendencies are by design, the rate at which he allows home runs (1.34 per nine innings) in particular is not.
As heat maps show, he has a worrisome tendency to leave his favorite pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
His individual pitch quality is not likely to bail him out when he locates his pitches poorly.
In particular, his pitches horribly lack velocity and spin, which means that they won't blow by batters and that batters won't struggle to track their location.
Gonzales vs. Tiger Batters
Gonzales is in a terrible spot tonight because he is pitching in Detroit's venue.
Here, Gonzales is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA in three career starts.
An additional reason why Tiger batters look forward to tonight is that Gonzales is a lefty.
They hit left-handed pitchers vastly better than right-handed ones.
Their slugging rate is .75 higher against the former than against the latter.
Among others, look out for Miguel Cabrera, Javier Baez, and Harold Castro.
All three batters slug .600 or even much higher with Gonzales on the mound.
Who Starts for Detroit?
Tyler Alexander starts for the Tigers tonight.
One key characteristic of Alexander's arsenal is variety.
He throws five different pitches between 12 and 28 percent of the time.
Alexander matches up well against Mariner batters because they rank below-average against his pitches from lefties.
This matchup advantage will help Detroit prolong its three-game win streak in games that directly follow a loss.
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for New York
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees today.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" has hit in each of his last four starts.
This streak is not only a product of New York's frequently poor hitting in the second half of the season but also of Cole's consistently strong performances.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his past four games.
During this four-game span, he conceded one earned run or fewer three times while lasting at least six innings in every outing.
Cole's Greatness
Cole has been particularly great most recently in part because he is not allowing home runs at too high a rate, which he has done in other stretches of the season.
If Cole isn't gifting home runs, then it's also hard to get on base at all when he's pitching because he rarely gifts walks.
It is generally hard to hit his pitches.
Consider, for example, his fastball, which he throws just over half the time.
This pitch ranks in the 93rd percentile in velocity and 92nd in spin.
Cole vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Cole is in an especially strong spot because he is pitching in the Angels' venue.
In his career, he is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts at this venue.
Expect him to produce a low-scoring effort with which he keeps his team at least competitive in this game.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Patrick Sandoval starts for the Angels today.
Sandoval has done a great job of limiting runs, lately.
In his past four starts, he has allowed a combined total of three runs.
Moreover, he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his past five starts.
Sandoval vs. Yankee Batters
In August, Yankee batters repeatedly fall flat after a strong performance.
Their inconsistency is evident in their failure to exceed three runs in any of their last three games that directly followed one in which they scored five or more.
Left-handed pitching -- Sandoval, too, is a lefty -- has given them problems.
They've failed to exceed three runs in their last six games in which the opposing starter was left-handed.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers ML at +143 & Yankees/Angels Under 7.5 at -105 at +374 odds with BetOnline
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park in Detroit
Who Starts for Seattle?
Marco Gonzales, his team's least profitable pitcher this season, starts for Seattle today.
This year, Gonzales is performing much worse than his surface stats indicate.
While his 3.97 ERA suggests that he is decent, this ERA masks a 4.97 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
Specifically, he has benefitted from yielding a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Gonzales' Issues
Among other things, Gonzales struggles with keeping the ball on the ground.
While his fly ball-inducing tendencies are by design, the rate at which he allows home runs (1.34 per nine innings) in particular is not.
As heat maps show, he has a worrisome tendency to leave his favorite pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone.
His individual pitch quality is not likely to bail him out when he locates his pitches poorly.
In particular, his pitches horribly lack velocity and spin, which means that they won't blow by batters and that batters won't struggle to track their location.
Gonzales vs. Tiger Batters
Gonzales is in a terrible spot tonight because he is pitching in Detroit's venue.
Here, Gonzales is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA in three career starts.
An additional reason why Tiger batters look forward to tonight is that Gonzales is a lefty.
They hit left-handed pitchers vastly better than right-handed ones.
Their slugging rate is .75 higher against the former than against the latter.
Among others, look out for Miguel Cabrera, Javier Baez, and Harold Castro.
All three batters slug .600 or even much higher with Gonzales on the mound.
Who Starts for Detroit?
Tyler Alexander starts for the Tigers tonight.
One key characteristic of Alexander's arsenal is variety.
He throws five different pitches between 12 and 28 percent of the time.
Alexander matches up well against Mariner batters because they rank below-average against his pitches from lefties.
This matchup advantage will help Detroit prolong its three-game win streak in games that directly follow a loss.
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 31, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for New York
Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees today.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" has hit in each of his last four starts.
This streak is not only a product of New York's frequently poor hitting in the second half of the season but also of Cole's consistently strong performances.
He has yielded a sub-three FIP in each of his past four games.
During this four-game span, he conceded one earned run or fewer three times while lasting at least six innings in every outing.
Cole's Greatness
Cole has been particularly great most recently in part because he is not allowing home runs at too high a rate, which he has done in other stretches of the season.
If Cole isn't gifting home runs, then it's also hard to get on base at all when he's pitching because he rarely gifts walks.
It is generally hard to hit his pitches.
Consider, for example, his fastball, which he throws just over half the time.
This pitch ranks in the 93rd percentile in velocity and 92nd in spin.
Cole vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Cole is in an especially strong spot because he is pitching in the Angels' venue.
In his career, he is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts at this venue.
Expect him to produce a low-scoring effort with which he keeps his team at least competitive in this game.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Patrick Sandoval starts for the Angels today.
Sandoval has done a great job of limiting runs, lately.
In his past four starts, he has allowed a combined total of three runs.
Moreover, he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his past five starts.
Sandoval vs. Yankee Batters
In August, Yankee batters repeatedly fall flat after a strong performance.
Their inconsistency is evident in their failure to exceed three runs in any of their last three games that directly followed one in which they scored five or more.
Left-handed pitching -- Sandoval, too, is a lefty -- has given them problems.
They've failed to exceed three runs in their last six games in which the opposing starter was left-handed.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers ML at +143 & Yankees/Angels Under 7.5 at -105 at +374 odds with BetOnline
