March 29th hockey discussion

[Satyr]

Took a day off following that nasty loss with the Sens. I've noticed that once the puck starts bouncing against you just a tad too often you ought to take a break.

So I may skip tonight's action as well. However, I would hate it if I missed on a play that I really liked, so let's see, perhaps there is something interesting on board.


At first glance (note these are just leans as of now):

Washington should be in a winning spot here but not sure if I could swallow them being a road favorite. The Panthers seem to be slowing down and fading them NOW isnt' a bad idea if you ask me.




Tampa are playing the "whose postseason will we spoil" game and can be good at it. Canes PL seems just too damn easy, but how can you fade them right now. You can't.

Little concern:

* CAR are 4-12 in the last 16 meetings in Tampa Bay.
* CAR are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.

(those were different teams back then though )


Calgary -0,5/PL

EDM are 3-10-1 in the last 14 meetings in Calgary.

Edmonton finally stopped winning, they will be fading material from this point on. It's hard to back Calgary at the PL (2 multi goal wins in last 10 games) but it is an option here.

Oilers are 6-22-5 in their last 33 games following OT on the previous day.


The Leafs are finally done but they should care here, knowing the rivalry between the two. Not sure what to do here, so it's likely a skip, especially with Cat on a break .


Share your thoughts I'll be back later.

:cheers:

 

[catfood]

Personally, I like Washington (for whatever reason Vokoun -if he gets the start- cant get it done on Saturdays) and I do like Montreal. Im still on a break mind you but I can talk about hockey. Torontos got to be a bit deflated I would think and Raycroft may get the start.

 

[catfood]

I dont know though if the habs want first place that badly though, Im sure theyd rather have Philly or Boston and not Washington.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Oils have got to be gutted, esp. the younger guys. As much as they've brought a ton of energy to a cause they didnt admit to themselves was futile, now that youth should count against them, where no prospect of anything but failure re:making the postseason should suck the wind right out of them. While Calgary battles for a divisional title on one hand, and possibly still missing the post season themselves on the other. Oilers have competed in a ton of games recently, but this should resemble their no-contest in Minnesota (they were never in that game from the get-go, should be the same here).

 

[catfood]

I dont know if Id touch the senators, my little finger tells me theyre trying to finish in sixth place.

 

[Gandolf]

Lean to Washington naturally, redhot and still on the chase. Florida should be disheartened enough by now to roll over.

Lean to Boston here, they need to stay ahead of the Caps. Agree that Ottawa may not be terribly motivated today.

Montreal, do they care about being #1? Dunno.

Edmonton is desperate but tired, playing 3rd in 4. Calgary is rested but semi-comfortable in the standings, -200 is too short to play.

Carolina and Dallas both have 4 point cushions, on the road against teams that have stayed competitive despite being the bottom two in the league. That's a dangerous recipe.

Flyers have owned the Island recently, not the best spot though with B2B on the road, and last night was a hard fought OT lost. Not sure how much gas is left in the tank.

Chi-StL, don't care.

 

[tuck321]

I thought the question was if I should play Boston. At least Thomas can play well in day games unlike Gerber. Do not think I can. Till they played Toronto Boston was doing nothing. Did they start to play well or did Toronto just play very bad? Played Islanders have not looked at most of the games yet. I was curious how Toronto responded after elimination but last 2 years they were eliminated almost at the very end so just looking.

 

[catfood]

Heres some stats concerning the Boston-Ottawa game...

Boston is 5-2 in saturday afternoon games at home this year
All those games went UNDER.

Ottawa is 1-3 in afternoon games on the road this year
All those games went OVER (because of offensively minded teams I would say (Pitts, Carolina)

 

[catfood]

In keeping with Boston...In road afternoon games...

Boston is 3-2, with 3 games going UNDER.

 

[catfood]

The ATS on both teams suggests a tendency for the under...

When BOSTON team Played as Home team as a Underdog - With 1 day off - Coming off 2 overs =2 Overs- 9 Unders-1Push

When OTTAWA team played as a Road team - Vs Conference Opponent - Total is 5.5 - Scored 3 goals FOR in their last game= 3 Overs-12 Unders...


Anywho, theres a few like that so with the nice odds for the under in the game, I made a small play on it.

 

[Big Herm]

Gerber on the road: 2.55 GAA
Tim Thomas at home: 2.28 GAA

Both are in the 2.8 range post all star break. Not really sure what it all adds up to....

 

[Satyr]

Great stuff guys. Still looking at it, had some sleep here, I think I'm going to pull the trigger on the Flames.

Will let you know.

 

[catfood]

Beware the Montreal game guys, Toronto is starting Toskala, and Koivu and Streit (versatile player and powerplay specialist) will be absent.

 

[tuck321]

Will look more at that. Have bet slightly less than a unit on Carolina. 80% ml and 205 minus 1.5. There is a trend operating with Tampa. When they lose at home they usually lose the next game. We are only concerned about the home and home situation. In that situation to start with they are 0-4. In a third game after the first 2 losses they have 2 wins. Ward last 3 games vs this teams has given up 4 goals and stopped 84 shots. Carolina is looking at another game vs Washington coming up and Ward on Saturday last 2 years has a average save percentage but a 18-6 win rate.

 

[catfood]

Boston up 2-0

 

[catfood]

A perfect game for Ottawa to lose really, this wont do any favours to washington.

 

[catfood]

4-0 Boston with 1 minute left, hope nothing unusual happens to screw my under...