Make that line, with an FCS twist

[M.O.T]

I mentioned a while back I'm making more of an effort to keep my own set of ratings this year instead of just using stats, the eye test, and other available ratings. I feel pretty good about where I'm starting but I won't be at a point this year to push it down to the FCS level.

I know several on here are pretty involved with FCS. Could someone help me wout with a hypothetical Temple vs Colgate line?

 

[RetroVK]

Ambitious.

I don't have a rating for Colgate

My guess is around 4 TD's ... 28.5 (make the temple betters get the extra score)... but that is of course a total and complete guess.

But I defer to anyone with actual numbers. There are some good guys at fcs like bull, scrute, tru .. who probably actually know. Sorry I couldn't help at all.

 

[M.O.T]

No problem, I know scrute (I missed the offseason name change I guess?) is usually pretty involved.

Maybe you'll have a better read on this one....Toledo vs Charlotte?

 

[RetroVK]

No problem, I know scrute (I missed the offseason name change I guess?) is usually pretty involved.

Maybe you'll have a better read on this one....Toledo vs Charlotte?

I have 19.5 neutral

 

[spanishshark]

Wow Cc, I came up with Temple -36.

 

[M.W.]

Temple -30.5 on PR, but with styles and pace taken into account I'd say more like -28.

 

[ebemiss]

I mentioned a while back I'm making more of an effort to keep my own set of ratings this year instead of just using stats, the eye test, and other available ratings. I feel pretty good about where I'm starting but I won't be at a point this year to push it down to the FCS level.

I know several on here are pretty involved with FCS. Could someone help me wout with a hypothetical Temple vs Colgate line?

Here's mine

[FONT=&quot]

Location							Predicted Line
at	Temple	Temple	37.3		Colgate	6.7	-30.6
Neutral		Temple	35.8		Colgate	8.2	-27.6
at	Colgate	Temple	34.3		Colgate	9.7	-24.6

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[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]

 

[carolinablue]

Assuming Temple is the home team and it was week 1, I would have them -34.5 vs Colgate
Assuming Toledo is the home team, and it was week 1, I would have them - 21.5 vs Charlotte

 

[traderjoe13]

do any of u have numbers for ULM/Southern??

 

[carolinablue]

do any of u have numbers for ULM/Southern??

With all the changes and overhauling going on at ULM and the fact that I have them as one of my 5 worst teams this season, I didn't even bother to make a number for this one, but with the line at ULM -16.5 at 5D, I would lean Southern for sure as I am not sure ULM's defense will be able to keep Southern from putting up points, and I am not sold enough on ULM's offense to beat anyone by 17. Actually wouldn't be surprised to see Southern win SU for what it's worth. Sorry, couldn't be of more help to your question.

 

[ebemiss]

do any of u have numbers for ULM/Southern??

Location							Predicted Line
at	LA Monroe	LA Monroe	37.9		Southern	28.2	-9.7
Neutral		LA Monroe	36.4		Southern	29.7	-6.7
at	Southern	LA Monroe	34.9		Southern	31.2	-3.7

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[M.W.]

With all the changes and overhauling going on at ULM and the fact that I have them as one of my 5 worst teams this season, I didn't even bother to make a number for this one, but with the line at ULM -16.5 at 5D, I would lean Southern for sure as I am not sure ULM's defense will be able to keep Southern from putting up points, and I am not sold enough on ULM's offense to beat anyone by 17.

Well, they beat Nicholls by 47 last year, and most of the offense returns. ULM's big problem is in the secondary, and Southern is the rare SWAC team that can throw the ball well. Howard was 16-4 TD-Int and 8.2 ypp last year. They also have a tailback who gained 1200 yards at better than 6 ypc.

 

[carolinablue]

Well, they beat Nicholls by 47 last year, and most of the offense returns. ULM's big problem is in the secondary, and Southern is the rare SWAC team that can throw the ball well. Howard was 16-4 TD-Int and 8.2 ypp last year. They also have a tailback who gained 1200 yards at better than 6 ypc.

Nicholls State also lost to Incarnate Word by 10 the week after so the 47 point win by ULM isn't saying much in my opinion.

 

[M.W.]

It says that ULM (at least last year's version, and most of the offense returns) can beat someone by 17+. Incarnate Word = Southern, so that doesn't help your case.

 

[traderjoe13]

carolinablue ebemiss M.W :shake:

great stuff guys i just thought the flooding may effect southern.. im not an FCS guy

 

[bull]

I can't help you with power ratings because I'm not smart enough to generate my own. You probably are aware that Syracuse is a 27 point favorite over Colgate opening week-end. That suggests to me that in your hypothetical, Temple would be somewhere in lo 30's , perhaps a little more. Colgate won 2 playoff games they weren't supposed to win last year while cuse has new coach. Being a confirmed dog lover, I have a pretty good lean on Colgate at that 27. Unfortunately, I am missing a ton of data for 2016 because the sites I use or use to use seem to have vanished . So I'm hesitant to pull the trigger. Anyone with good websites for fcs data , feel free to post. I'm frustrated as hell about my situation. For example, I can't find the individual game scores for 2015 for Lamar, for one. I think the numbers our fellow ctg members have given you are pretty close - although I might think a little higher.
your other games involve teams outside my geographical area and I just don't pursue those with the one exception of Missouri valley, arguably the number one conf in fcs. Anyway, good luck.
bull

 

[carolinablue]

It says that ULM (at least last year's version, and most of the offense returns) can beat someone by 17+. Incarnate Word = Southern, so that doesn't help your case.

See, I would have Southern way above IW, so that was why I brought up the comparison. Southern has some decent athletes that could give some teams fits probably not for 4 complete quarters but at least for a while to put a scare in a few teams. I just see ULM as one of those teams that is going through a transition so this year is part of the process and will most likely be very painful at times, both for the coaches and the fan base. Just couldn't see laying 3 scores with them against a team that should be able to put up some points. Appreciate the discussion as always, that's what I like about this place as where else can you debate a hypothetical matchup between Southern and Incarnate Word...I love it!