Mad Monday thoughts/plays

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Needless to say, it was a pretty ugly past couple days. Couple bad breaks, but mostly just bad capping and bad management- playing too many plays for too much. Will try to cut down on it and go more into the marathon of the season

updated ytd:
136-108
+32.3651

Plays:
Phoenix TT OVER 105 (-120)- 2 units
2nd H Phoenix -3 (-115)- 2 units
1st Q NYK +.5 (-115)- 1 unit W
1st H NYK pk (-105)- 3 units L
NYK -1 (-105)- 2 units
2nd H NYK -1 (-105)- 1 unit
Miami -3 (-105)- 2 units
1st H Milwaukee -2 (-105)- 2 units
Milwaukee -4- 2 units
2nd H New Orleans -3.5- 2 units
2nd Q Portland -3 (-115)- 1 unit L
1st H Portland -6.5 (-105)- 2 units L
3rd Q Portland -3 (-115)- 2 units push
Portland -9.5- 3 units w
----10.5 (-105)- 3 unitsw
2nd H Portland -6.5 (-105)- 3 unitsw

9-6
+5.9 units


I've had this one circled since Portland lost in doub OT at home. Didn't know the clippers would be this messed up, but I'm sure that Portland remember their home loss and will look to seek vengeance. Clips altho getting blown out tonight, were forced to keep their players in. Their lineup is not pretty and made the warriors look like world beaters. This team is decimated with injuries, and they don't mind using that as an excuse. Dunleavy continues to say "well give me a healthy lineup, blah blah blah" unlike good coaches who say stuff like "when one goes down, other players need to step up, no excuses" etc. To rebound with the best rebounding team in the league, the Clippers have Deandre Jordan and Al thornton with no1 off the bench. I think this one will get ugly and stay ugly throughout.

"We probably should have beaten them last time, but we didn't," Portland's Brandon Roy said. "We have to put our heads down as if those guys are the Los Angeles Lakers.
 
Last edited:
also gonna be on
New York 1st H
Houston off a W fade in the 1st H. New York with revnge from the beating Houston put on them a couple weeks back. Houston on a b2b off a long game vs detroit. Tmac and Artest, who havnt played for awhile, will be forced on a b2b, so I'm guessing T-mac bitches out by the 1st Q and tired legs may come into effect after a bit of running with NY. Pending line I'm liking both NY and 1st H
 
For the Milwaukee game, 1) want to see the line 2) want to see if Bogut is in 3) want to read some newspapers to see players reactions to redd being out. If all of the above works out well (below -5, bogut in, players respond professionally generally and talk about others stepping up- as opposed to "yea this is a tough blow, mike is a big piece of what we do, so the playoffs will definitely be a toll to try to accomplish without) I'll be on Milwaukee. Minneosta on b2b off a big W in OT which they trailed big in the beginning and should be feeling pretty good about themselves. Too good to play a good team remembering the 2 pt loss earelier this week
 
schedule wise, could see an arggument for Miami- Atlanta on tough b2b, miami with 1 day rest and got to stay home and gets to stay home after this. little homestand for them to help them. Do worry about a hangover for Miami off the big Orlando victory. Miami may also have revenge from an earlier home loss to thes eguys in which they lost a big early lead to end up losing by DD. May end up on Miami, will see
 
Good luck SF!

All what you're saying make sense, but I don't know, one of the worst cards I seen in January.
Redd and Charlie V were scorching hot and Jefferson will have to step up, something he hasn't been doing a lot this year.
Fading Clips always seems like a good idea, I'm not sure even they know what roster they will be playing coming in to each game and I just can't understand how more than half a team can be injured (something like that was in Rockets and Cats two seasons a go). I really think that Houston and Clips should replace their medical staf (and hire the one that is in Phoenix). Still laying almost DD chalk on a road... Looks like the best play for today, but only because it's a very weak card.
About Knicks? Wouldn't go there. Rockets been shooting last night as if their is no tomorrow and usually you would expect them to stop, but they finished the game poorly on the offense and they play the Knicks and lets face it, the only team that came to a stop against the Knicks on the offense were the Celtics this season so far.
Hope you sweep though :)
 
I want to play Phoenix at the road chalk they'll be giving -5? Horrible spot schedule wise for Washington. 4 game road trip- back home- then off on the road again after this. Honestly wouldn't be surprised with a Phoenix blowout but will have trouble playing it. I'm just hoping they throw out a ridiculous line like -8 so that I can just cross it out of my mind and leave it alone. If they give me lower than 5 I may have to bite on it along with 80% of wagerline. Phoenix with a very impressive W @ Atlanta and altho it is a b2b, I think phoenix will be able to take it considering noone on wash can handle the bigson Phoenix. maybe tt over phoenix?
 
divol said:
Good luck SF!

All what you're saying make sense, but I don't know, one of the worst cards I seen in January.
Redd and Charlie V were scorching hot and Jefferson will have to step up, something he hasn't been doing a lot this year.
Fading Clips always seems like a good idea, I'm not sure even they know what roster they will be playing coming in to each game and I just can't understand how more than half a team can be injured (something like that was in Rockets and Cats two seasons a go). I really think that Houston and Clips should replace their medical staf (and hire the one that is in Phoenix). Still laying almost DD chalk on a road... Looks like the best play for today, but only because it's a very weak card.
About Knicks? Wouldn't go there. Rockets been shooting last night as if their is no tomorrow and usually you would expect them to stop, but they finished the game poorly on the offense and they play the Knicks and lets face it, the only team that came to a stop against the Knicks on the offense were the Celtics this season so far.
Hope you sweep though :)
Click to expand...

thanks man. I actually think this is a nice card, but probably because I always end up playing too much. A sweep would be nice for my bankroll and confidence right now. BOL today
 
Also just noticed that this game at washington will be phoenix's last game of the road trip. right now standing at 2-3, need this one to make it a semi-succesfull one. They can be looking ahead to a home game to SA on thursday though as well. bleh, I think if I get a nice price I'll play phoenix for a regular bet and cross my fingers
 
Will most likely be on phx 1H. Should be hard for was to bounceback off horrible roadtrip and opportunity for phx to have a 3-3 trip. Don't know if they cover entire line but I do not see why they wouldn't help themselves by having a stronmg 1H. Also. If u take a look at the last 5 1Hs for was, its been ugly. Look for shaq to dominate in the beginning
 
Will also be on miami 1H and phi 1H as well. NO had to come back against NJ and barely dominated minny. Phily is in a groove right now and with brand back I like their chances. Atl on b2b and miami is dominate at home in 1Hs
 
I love portland, where are the points coming from clippers?

portland averages the lowest amount of possession in the league i think, but still they win this game, its all thorton and eric gordon, otehr than that they couldnt score on g state, so what do they do today?

Tihs could be a blowout if portladn wants it, which they have revenge.
 
lungster said:
Will also be on miami 1H and phi 1H as well. NO had to come back against NJ and barely dominated minny. Phily is in a groove right now and with brand back I like their chances. Atl on b2b and miami is dominate at home in 1Hs
Click to expand...

I played Miami full game, just because I can easily see a close game where atlanta has a small lead at half that Wade erases in the 4th Q

i think im staying off the Philly game. New Orleans with 2 days restand off a loss is not interesting to me
 
lungster said:
Will most likely be on phx 1H. Should be hard for was to bounceback off horrible roadtrip and opportunity for phx to have a 3-3 trip. Don't know if they cover entire line but I do not see why they wouldn't help themselves by having a stronmg 1H. Also. If u take a look at the last 5 1Hs for was, its been ugly. Look for shaq to dominate in the beginning
Click to expand...

Only played the TT over, but completely think they blow them out, but can't stomach that kind of road chalk with that defense. COL tonight man
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I love portland, where are the points coming from clippers?

portland averages the lowest amount of possession in the league i think, but still they win this game, its all thorton and eric gordon, otehr than that they couldnt score on g state, so what do they do today?

Tihs could be a blowout if portladn wants it, which they have revenge.
Click to expand...

this is definitely my favorite play. watching the game yesterday was like watching 8th graders
 
like what I've been seeing from Phoenix although it is tied. Only shooting 40% thanks largely to Jrich and grant hill missing layups. Jamison and Butler may have busted their loads in the 1st H each oing for 20. Unless they both go for 40 tonight, I see Phoenix pulling this one out with nash FTs to seal it for me
 
<TABLE class=latestplays border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>25.6</TD><TD> HOU - Team rebound</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>:27.9</TD><TD> HOU - T. McGrady misses a 25-foot three-pointer from the left wing</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>:41.3</TD><TD> NY - C. Duhon drives to the hoop for a layup</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>:54.6</TD><TD> HOU - Layup by L. Scola. Assist: T. McGrady</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>1:05</TD><TD> HOU - S. Battier offensive rebound</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>1:07</TD><TD> HOU - R. Alston misses a 24-foot three-pointer from the right wing</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>1:23</TD><TD> HOU - R. Alston offensive rebound</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=playtime vAlign=top align=right>1:25</TD><TD> HOU - T. McGrady misses a 25-foot three-pointer from the left wing</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



AHHHHH NY CANNOT REBOUND FOR SHIT
 
put a lot of little exotic bets around Portland. This one will be a blowout imo, and I don't mind betting big for it
 
call it chasing/stubbornness, whatever. I watched the 1st H and loved what I saw. Clips were outhustlin on the boards- and portland doesn't get beat on the boards. By final, it'll be evened up. Halftime: Clippers 17 boards with 6 offensive, portland 12 boards, 3 offensive. I'm gonna call it that Clips do not get past 9 offensive boards this game as Portland should tighten up immediately

2nd H Portland -6.5 (-105)- 3 units
 
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