MACtion Week 3 with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
11-4 YTD
MAC Champs Future: Ohio Bobcats +650 one unit bet

Five MACtion games this week. Miami/BG/Ohio all have one loss with two weeks left. Ohio/Toledo is the big game of the week.

Tuesday

Akron
Kent State +10 48.5

Northern Illinois
Miami Oh -3 41.5

W Michigan
C Michigan +6.5 56.5


Wednesday

Ohio
Toledo -2.5 45.5

Buffalo
E Michigan -2.5 54


(Saturday: BG @ Ball State +11.5, 57.5)
 
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Always sad when it doesn't work out for a coach who played at the school. They gave him a good number of years to see how it panned out though.

I will probably be at the Wagon Wheel game
 
awesome job so far bro, I need to stop trying to figure out props and just ride with you cause these teams make no sense to me! Lol
 
Alright lets talk about the Old Wagon Wheel; Kent catching 10 at home; O/U 49.5 so up a point...

This is a rivalry game, they play for the Wagon Wheel which is the best trophy in College Football (other than the irregularly awarded Illibuck).

These two teams are fucking terrible, Akron has showed some life this year by beating Eastern and hanging around against BG. I think their coach is not horrible.
Kent has been a fucking disaster and has yet to win. These WW games are usually pretty close which makes the 10 points kind of tempting.
Kent went back to Ulatowski at QB last week and actually scored 7 on Miami albeit with a short field. He's not very good but he does have a couple of competent games on his resume (394 on Ball, 345 on Eastern). The main problem they have is an absolute terrible OL so the QBs are always running for their life and the RBs have no holes. They should get some class relief this week against Akron's toothless D. I kind of think we see Kent move the ball here some and put up some points.

Akron has the much better QB here, and a slightly better defense. It's hard to lay double digits with a team that has 1 win over a D1 school in the past 3 years by more than double digits (NIU game in 2022). I could probably talk myself into the over here but scoring points is still going to require sustained drives as these teams just don't have much big play talent.

If this game was a strip club, it would be located by the airport.

Lean to over; Lean to Kent....don't feel strongly about much....gonna take a quick look at the props market.

My plays:

#2 McCray over 48.5 rec yards to win half unit (-114) (write up below)
#2 McCray over 3.5 catches to win half unit (-125)
 
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Kent does have one big play guy on their team--#2 Chrishon McCray. He's kind of a shifty 5'10 guy with some speed. He would start on a decent team in the slot. He hasn't done much this year but considering how bad the offense has been he had a decent floor always catching at least 3 balls.

If we think Kent is going to have more time to throw (and I do), McCray basically needs to get loose once to go over his 48.5 yards total as he will get at least 4 or 5 touches. In the two decent passing games that Ulatowski has had this year, McCray has gone for 213 and 188. Last year, he had 6 games with 50+ yards receiving so the back class is there. If you want to get real crazy, 99+ yards is +231 at my pph. He was 6/161 and 2 TDs in last year's WW.

It's a hold your nose stinker but so is everything in this game.

My prop play:

#2 McCray over 48.5 yards receiving to win half unit (-114)
 
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Marsski said:
Alright lets talk about the Old Wagon Wheel; Kent catching 10 at home; O/U 49.5 so up a point...

This is a rivalry game, they play for the Wagon Wheel which is the best trophy in College Football (other than the irregularly awarded Illibuck).

These two teams are fucking terrible, Akron has showed some life this year by beating Eastern and hanging around against BG. I think their coach is not horrible.
Kent has been a fucking disaster and has yet to win. These WW games are usually pretty close which makes the 10 points kind of tempting.
Kent went back to Ulatowski at QB last week and actually scored 7 on Miami albeit with a short field. He's not very good but he does have a couple of competent games on his resume (394 on Ball, 345 on Eastern). The main problem they have is an absolute terrible OL so the QBs are always running for their life and the RBs have no holes. They should get some class relief this week against Akron's toothless D. I kind of think we see Kent move the ball here some and put up some points.

Akron has the much better QB here, and a slightly better defense. It's hard to lay double digits with a team that has 1 win over a D1 school in the past 3 years by more than double digits (NIU game in 2022). I could probably talk myself into the over here but scoring points is still going to require sustained drives as these teams just don't have much big play talent.

If this game was a strip club, it would be located by the airport.

Lean to over; Lean to Kent....don't feel strongly about much....gonna take a quick look at the props market.

My plays:

McCray over 48.5 rec yards to win half unit (-114) (write up below)
Click to expand...
“Located by the airport”. Classic
 
NIU @ Miami Oh; home team now -2; O/U ticked up to 43 but still low

The MACs top two defenses here and Miami's coach is generally a conservative close to the vest kind of guy. Miami QB Gabbert loves to take deep shots and can be effective with a clean pocket. I don't think he will have one though against NIU who has 28 sacks this year. Miami running game is solid and I think they will have some success on the ground. Similar for NIU who didn't miss a beat when A. Brown went out with an injury last week.
It sets up to be a rock sock em 20-17 type game.
NIU has had special teams problems this year with 6 blocked kicks so always something to watch.

At +3 or more I would be interested in NIU, I just didn't hop on it when I had the chance. Heavy lean on the under, but not rushing to bet under 43. I'm going to see if maybe I can grab a 44...

My plays:
NIU/M Oh under 43 to win 1 unit
 
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Western @ Central; Chips now +6 so dipped slightly; O/U pretty much stuck on 56.5

Central has been brutal trying to pass the ball since Qbs1&2 got hurt. Chips QB Glasser threw for 150 last week but had 2 picks and was wildly inaccurate and that might have been the best quarterbacking they have seen in a month. They have scored 7, 13,and 10 with the Qbs they are trotting out right now (Glasser & Jefferson). Their defense isn't that great having given up an average of 34 a game in MAC play. They do get sacks and TFL so aren't totally helpless but still not great. I do like their coach a good bit but he doesn't have much to work with considering the injuries at QB and WR.

Western has a very very good offense and a defense that can get turnovers but otherwise can be had. They are a classic MAC over team and 5-1 to the over in conference play and 7-3 overall. Their D is ninth in the MAC vs the pass and 10th vs the run so they are balanced in their shittiness.

The only way to play this game is Over or Western in my opinion. I don't think I can trust Western's defense even against a very shaky QB...the Chips may come out and run it right down their throats.

My play: Over 56.5 to win 1 unit
 
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Marsski said:
Western @ Central; Chips now +6 so dipped slightly; O/U pretty much stuck on 56.5

Central has been brutal trying to pass the ball since Qbs1&2 got hurt. Chips QB Glasser threw for 150 last week but had 2 picks and was wildly inaccurate and that might have been the best quarterbacking they have seen in a month. They have scored 7, 13,and 10 with the Qbs they are trotting out right now (Glasser & Jefferson). Their defense isn't that great having given up an average of 34 a game in MAC play. They do get sacks and TFL so aren't totally helpless but still not great. I do like their coach a good bit but he doesn't have much to work with considering the injuries at QB and WR.

Western has a very very good offense and a defense that can get turnovers but otherwise can be had. They are a classic MAC over team and 5-1 to the over in conference play and 7-3 overall. Their D is ninth in the MAC vs the pass and 10th vs the run so they are balanced in their shittiness.

The only way to play this game is Over or Western in my opinion. I don't think I can trust Western's defense even against a very shaky QB...the Chips may come out and run it right down their throats.

My play: Over 56.5 to win 1 unit
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I don’t think there’s a conference in all of sports that makes me more uncertain about gambling! These rare Tuesday and Wednesday night games are like putting a stiff drink in front of me before the weekend! Appreciate your insight! Go Bowling Green over 6.5 wins!! GL!
 
wiseplayer said:
I don’t think there’s a conference in all of sports that makes me more uncertain about gambling! These rare Tuesday and Wednesday night games are like putting a stiff drink in front of me before the weekend! Appreciate your insight! Go Bowling Green over 6.5 wins!! GL!
Click to expand...
That was a very good bet.
 
Marsski said:
Kent does have one big play guy on their team--#2 Chrishon McCray. He's kind of a shifty 5'10 guy with some speed. He would start on a decent team in the slot. He hasn't done much this year but considering how bad the offense has been he had a decent floor always catching at least 3 balls.

If we think Kent is going to have more time to throw (and I do), McCray basically needs to get loose once to go over his 48.5 yards total as he will get at least 4 or 5 touches. In the two decent passing games that Ulatowski has had this year, McCray has gone for 213 and 188. Last year, he had 6 games with 50+ yards receiving so the back class is there. If you want to get real crazy, 99+ yards is +231 at my pph. He was 6/161 and 2 TDs in last year's WW.

It's a hold your nose stinker but so is everything in this game.

My prop play:

#2 McCray over 48.5 yards receiving to win half unit (-114)
Click to expand...

Great call bro, of course I threw a little on the alt line , fucker just missed.
 
2-2 night, we juiced out because we couldn't get both the props home....bad read on CMU game

Tomorrow, I'm gonna sleep on it but looking at Eastern ML.
In the Glass Bowl, the door is wide open for the Bobcats to sneak into the MAC championship game, not a classic Dildoes team by any measure.
 
Marsski said:
I needed one more catch. He’s the best goddamn player on that team and they refuse to use him more than 4 plays a game.
Click to expand...

I almost never play total catch props unless the math is really off on the rec total compared to catch number so I only did the yards. One more catch for 6+ yards woulda been awesome tho cause I played td with the alt number, just something I do a lot assuming guy gonna hit the alt number good chance he scores imo and really jacks up odds!
 
Marsski said:
2-2 night, we juiced out because we couldn't get both the props home....bad read on CMU game

Tomorrow, I'm gonna sleep on it but looking at Eastern ML.
In the Glass Bowl, the door is wide open for the Bobcats to sneak into the MAC championship game, not a classic Dildoes team by any measure.
Click to expand...

Looks like line trending toward eastern being a pk anyways. I’ll wait to follow your lead tho!
 
Buffalo @ EMU; pick em as Buffalo has taken money; O/U dropped a few points to 51

It's starting to drift back up to -1s so let me quickly make the case for EMU.

It's a great spot here for them at home as they chase bowl eligibility on the gray turf. Cole Snyder will be in revenge mode playing his old team and he brings a vertical dimension to the passing game that will give Buffalo's woeful secondary problems. I like Pete Lembo but Creighton is by far the better game planner and I think he has the better QB and better D. I'll take them at pick before it drifts up anymore.

My plays:

E Mich pk to win 1 unit (-115)
E Michigan Team Total over 26 to win half unit (-115)
 
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Marsski said:
Buffalo @ EMU; pick em as Buffalo has taken money; O/U dropped a few points to 51

It's starting to drift back up to -1s so let me quickly make the case for EMU.

It's a great spot here for them at home as they chase bowl eligibility on the gray turf. Cole Snyder will be in revenge mode playing his old team and he brings a vertical dimension to the passing game that will give Buffalo's woeful secondary problems. I like Pete Lembo but Creighton is by far the better game planner and I think he has the better QB and better D. I'll take them at pick before it drifts up anymore.

My plays:

E Mich pk to win 1 unit (-115)
E Michigan Team Total over 26 to win half unit (-115)
Click to expand...

Not trying to get in your way but is weather a potential issue for a passing attack here? I looked up where the hell emu played in a really weird named town! And weather didn’t look great but I dunno if bad enough to be a concern. I see rain ending early but then it says windy conditions at 4pm, no clue if that means all night or for a hour? Or if my app a liar as it known to be!
 
2daBank said:
Not trying to get in your way but is weather a potential issue for a passing attack here? I looked up where the hell emu played in a really weird named town! And weather didn’t look great but I dunno if bad enough to be a concern. I see rain ending early but then it says windy conditions at 4pm, no clue if that means all night or for a hour? Or if my app a liar as it known to be!
Click to expand...
Rain should be gone, seeing 18 mph winds. Right on the edge of worrying about. Snyder has a strong arm, deep balls could be impacted I guess. Kind of think it would be a bigger problem for Ogbonna but who knows.
 
Marsski said:
Rain should be gone, seeing 18 mph winds. Right on the edge of worrying about. Snyder has a strong arm, deep balls could be impacted I guess. Kind of think it would be a bigger problem for Ogbonna but who knows.
Click to expand...

I looked up stadium to make sure they didn’t play in a dome and I sounded like a retard, lol, anyways it looked very open like wind would def whip thru. I have no idea what kind of passing attack either runs, do they run a lot of short ipo slant stuff or throw deep? Or if the wind is a cross wind or going post to post which I think makes it much easier to deal with. So I’m in no position to judge. I did notice the total been bet down enough I gotta assume that was def a weather move by some folks who know but they coulda been hoping for it to stay worse and could be better than projected earlier. Again im ignorant to this and trust your judgement much more just doing my best to be getting an idea for it all.
 
2daBank said:
I looked up stadium to make sure they didn’t play in a dome and I sounded like a retard, lol, anyways it looked very open like wind would def whip thru. I have no idea what kind of passing attack either runs, do they run a lot of short ipo slant stuff or throw deep? Or if the wind is a cross wind or going post to post which I think makes it much easier to deal with. So I’m in no position to judge. I did notice the total been bet down enough I gotta assume that was def a weather move by some folks who know but they coulda been hoping for it to stay worse and could be better than projected earlier. Again im ignorant to this and trust your judgement much more just doing my best to be getting an idea for it all.
Click to expand...
I don't know the stadium configuration at Ypsilanti. Snyder will throw deep for sure. I don't think it has a huge impact but the move to the under is probably weather related.
 
Ohio @ Toledo; Rocket Men are -1.5; O/U 45.5....no big movement on either

Well, this is the big game of the week and it knocks whoever loses out of the MAC race.

OK, I think everyone reading this knows this but if you don't...I am an Ohio University fan (and graduate) and I will cop to not being totally objective in my analysis of my squadron.

I was really pleasantly surprised with Navarro's passing last week. He's always been a run first guy that you really couldn't count on to progress through his reads or deliver the ball on time from the pocket. But he was doing all of that last week and running a very efficient zone read. So was it a fluke game or has he turned a corner? NO matter the answer, the Bobcats will be looking to run first with Tyus/Hunt and assert themselves at the line of scrimmage. Toledo has given up over 200 yards rushing in both their MAC losses so I do think they can be had at the point of attack by a Bobcats squad with a very good offensive line. OT Dennison's return is helpful as well.
Offensively, I think the Rockets will have problems running the ball, and will be looking to chuck it early and often. Bobcats stout DL will have their ears pinned back but Toledo's pass catchers are tough and the Cats decent secondary will have their hands full covering them.

They say styles make fights in boxing, and I think this kind of true here. Do you want the ball control, dominate the trenches body puncher in Ohio or a big KO guy swinging from his heels in Toledo?

I think Ohio wins on the strength of their line play as I see them with the better DL and OL in this game. They need another decent game out of Navarro who is playing his best ball of late so it doesn't seem too much to ask.

My plays:

Ohio Bobcats ML +100 to win 1 unit
Prop: Ohio #7 Chase Hendricks over 24.5 rec yards to win half unit (-113)
 
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Marsski said:
I did a quick pass on the EMU props, nothing really stood out. I would take Singleton rec yards over if you made me play something. He's the highest volume guy, big play guy.
Click to expand...

Both qb rush props kinda caught my eye. Snyder more cause well lower number plus he the kid with something to prove on his mind against former team right? Sacks concern me as I dunno either teams ability to get the pressure but it did appear to me both teams have given up some rush yards to qbs, maybe if the wind is throwing them off a bit he looks to take off tad more? Snyder has went well over 30 rushing in 4 of last 6. But again I don’t think I have a lot of business playing props in this league and will just rock with you if I play anything.
 
2daBank said:
Both qb rush props kinda caught my eye. Snyder more cause well lower number plus he the kid with something to prove on his mind against former team right? Sacks concern me as I dunno either teams ability to get the pressure but it did appear to me both teams have given up some rush yards to qbs, maybe if the wind is throwing them off a bit he looks to take off tad more? Snyder has went well over 30 rushing in 4 of last 6. But again I don’t think I have a lot of business playing props in this league and will just rock with you if I play anything.
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When he played for Buffalo, I don’t remember him running much. I would take Ogbonna rush over before him but that’s just a gut feel. I haven’t looked up any numbers or anything.
 
Marsski said:
When he played for Buffalo, I don’t remember him running much. I would take Ogbonna rush over before him but that’s just a gut feel. I haven’t looked up any numbers or anything.
Click to expand...

The Buffalo qb number was high, almost 50 I think, I gotta really know wtf im doing to play a college qb that high, and clearly I don’t. Lol
 
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