MACtion Final Week with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD: 9-5, +3.07 units

It's the final week in the MAC and there's a bunch of teams (Western Michigan, Miami Ohio, Toledo, C Michigan, Ohio) still alive in the race to get to Ford Field. Western is in the driver's seat with one loss, if they beat Eastern...they are in. All the other MAC championship game scenarios are fairly complicated. I will be in with a complete breakdown later.

All comments always welcome.

Here's the slate:

Tuesday

BG
@ U Mass +14.5 45.5

Western Michigan
@ Eastern Michigan +6.5 46.5


Friday

Ohio
@ Buffalo +6 45.5

Kent
@ Northern Illinois -5.5 44.5

Saturday

Ball State
@ Miami Ohio -17.5 42.5

Toledo
@ Central Michigan +10.5 44.5
 
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I bet Central on the open. I get the better running game, coach and defense. I think Central can win at the line of scrimmage and they could be still playing for their MAC lives. I make this 6ish so no brainer here to Fire Up Chips! This is the kind of game that Jason Candle blows on the regular. A little sprinkle on the ML definitely on tap as well.

My play: Central Michigan +10.5 to win 1 unit
 
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MAC title odds:

Western Michigan -120 DK
Miami Ohio +190 DK
Toledo +425 MGM
C Michigan 30/1 DK
Ohio University 150/1 FD
 
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Marsski said:
I bet Central on the open. I get the better running game, coach and defense. I think Central can win at the line of scrimmage and they could be still playing for their MAC lives. I make this 6ish so no brainer here to Fire Up Chips! This is the kind of game that Jason Candle blows on the regular. A little sprinkle on the ML definitely on tap as well.

My play: Central Michigan +10.5 to win 1 unit
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I also had CMU marked before lines came out, but decided to wait as the line moved before I hit submit (maybe first time ever that has happened in my favor haha). Will eventually take it as well, but curious to see if it keeps going up as it started at 9.5.
 
They need a new tiebreaker system if its that fucking complicated. From the Ohio perspective, we need either Eastern over Western or Ball State over Miami to happen to even have a chance. That is tough sledding.
 
BG @ UMass
What a gross game this is going in front of 800 fans on national TV at 430 pm with every degenerate in the world watching it. Part of me wants to play U Mass ML and say fuck it as it's not like BG has done anything but fight in bars and lose football games for the past five weeks. The problem is UMass absolutely can not stop the run at all.
NIU went apeshit on them to the point where they weren't even thinking about passing and Bangura had a fucking huge game too last week.
BG has been on the QB merry go round with Pyne being the most effective. However, I think we see Najm or Anderson today as Eddie has to be thinking about seeing what he has for next year. Anderson can make plays with his legs, Najm is the better passer but is coming off 9 for 26 vs Akron. No matter who plays Qb for BG, it won't be pretty.

I haven't bet anything yet. What I really want to play is RB Dendy (Mizzou transfer) over rush yards....maybe U Mass first half? They have looked fiesty early in a few games...this game is all kinds of gross....
 
Props just dropped on pph...Dendy has gone for 110, and 113 the last two weeks. U Mass gave up 363 on ground to Ohio and 318 to NIU. It will be tough because BG's passing game sucks but I trust UMass to be awful in the run D. I would suggest grabbing this immediately as it will only go up IMO.

My play: BG #14 Dendy over 108.5 rush yards to win 1 unit (-114)
 
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Western @ Eastern

I think Western is a pretty solid ML parlay piece today. They have a very good defense and everything to play for today as if they win they are in. Eastern's coach Creighton is very wily but his run D is next to UMass worst in the MAC. I think Eastern will be fiesty but eventually wear down under the running attack of WMU and Western punches their ticket to Ford Field. Something like 23-17

My play: ML parlay: Western Michigan/Ohio State to win 1 unit (-139 on MGM)
 
Marsski said:
Props just dropped on pph...Dendy has gone for 110, and 113 the last two weeks. U Mass gave up 363 on ground to Ohio and 318 to NIU. It will be tough because BG's passing game sucks but I trust UMass to be awful in the run D. I would suggest grabbing this immediately as it will only go up IMO.

My play: BG #14 Dendy over 108.5 rush yards to win 1 unit (-114)
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Funny, earlier I took the alt line at FD which was over 100 yards at 152. Almost never play props but this one to me was basically a double fade of the UMass rush D and the BG pass O haha. Best of luck tonight man!
 
I might be kicking myself on this one, but I think they hang around for a while against shitty BG....Call it 13-10 at half. They have covered two first half spreads this year.

ADD: UMass 1H +7.5 to win half unit
 
Marsski said:
I might be kicking myself on this one, but I think they hang around for a while against shitty BG....Call it 13-10 at half. They have covered two first half spreads this year.

ADD: UMass 1H +7.5 to win half unit
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Makes sense as I fully expect to sweat my -13.5 for a bit before UMass begins their typical implosion leading to 21 unanswered points by BG to secure my cover haha
 
Marsski said:
Western @ Eastern

I think Western is a pretty solid ML parlay piece today. They have a very good defense and everything to play for today as if they win they are in. Eastern's coach Creighton is very wily but his run D is next to UMass worst in the MAC. I think Eastern will be fiesty but eventually wear down under the running attack of WMU and Western punches their ticket to Ford Field. Something like 23-17

My play: ML parlay: Western Michigan/Ohio State to win 1 unit (-139 on MGM)
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Curious how high is too high in your opinion on this?
 
Marsski said:
U Mass is just so fucking terrible. Too cute by half….lesson learned. I still think BG sucks but U Mass is some next level doo doo.
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As bad as BG is, I won’t feel like my play is safe until the final whistle as they are only one step above UMass on the garbage heap
 
YTD: 10-7, +2.97 units; Ohio State parlay pending

Ohio @ Buffalo; Friday at noon

The under seems low to me at 44.5 considering the Bobcats potent offense and the Bulls propensity to turn the rock over (8 in the last 2 games) as well as make big plays. I would be on the Ovah but the weather report in Buffalo is nasty. Snow showers and wind at 24MPH with gusts up to 39 mph. I recall a few Buffalo games where the wind greatly impacted the game because the field is rather open to the elements. But I will defer here to the local Bills Mafia...
What do we think this looks weather-wise @DOUBLEUP4LIFE

If there's heavy wind, I would think the Cats would lean on Bangura who has more than 1100 rush yards this year. Could be another rush over play on him...

No play for now
 
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Marsski said:
YTD: 10-7, +2.97 units; Ohio State parlay pending

Ohio @ Buffalo; Friday at noon

The under seems low to me at 44.5 considering the Bobcats potent offense and the Bulls propensity to turn the rock over (8 in the last 2 games) as well as make big plays. I would be on the Ovah but the weather report in Buffalo is nasty. Snow showers and wind at 24MPH with gusts up to 39 mph. I recall a few Buffalo games where the wind greatly impacted the game because the field is rather open to the elements. But I will defer here to the local Bills Mafia...
What do we think this looks weather-wise @DOUBLEUP4LIFE

If there's heavy wind, I would think the Cats would lean on Bangura who has more than 1100 rush yards this year. Could be another rush over play on him...

No play for now
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There has been some heavy gusts the last few days , while it might continue throughout the game. It has died down some, wind is projected to be around 16-20 mph with some stronger gusts approaching 30+...The snow/rain is only projected for 20% of Amherst with temps around 32/33.
Played in our turkey bowl yesterday right down the street from UB stadium , wind was weird with like nothing for a few minutes than several minutes of continuous wind. Not supposed to be as bad today , but it's so hard to predict wind around here. If either team could dink and dunk the over should probably hit , my guess is the bulls are ripe for more bad turnovers as Roberson thinks he can beat the weather here ( good luck with that )...Possible short fields like you mentioned last week ....

I'm sitting this one out thou ...


Best of luck brother, sweep your turkey weekend slate 🤑💵
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
There has been some heavy gusts the last few days , while it might continue throughout the game. It has died down some, wind is projected to be around 16-20 mph with some stronger gusts approaching 30+...The snow/rain is only projected for 20% of Amherst with temps around 32/33.
Played in our turkey bowl yesterday right down the street from UB stadium , wind was weird with like nothing for a few minutes than several minutes of continuous wind. Not supposed to be as bad today , but it's so hard to predict wind around here. If either team could dink and dunk the over should probably hit , my guess is the bulls are ripe for more bad turnovers as Roberson thinks he can beat the weather here ( good luck with that )...Possible short fields like you mentioned last week ....

I'm sitting this one out thou ...


Best of luck brother, sweep your turkey weekend slate 🤑💵
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You gotta love the Turkey Bowl wind report. Only on this site do you get that. It sounds like it sets up for ground and pound. I'm gonna pass for right now, maybe look for a LIVE over once we can see how its impacting play...
 
Kent @ NIU

I'm gonna take Kent and the points here. It hasn't moved to 6 all week so I took the +5.5. Deshields is a way better QB than the rotation of scrubs that NIU has been running out there. Kent was a dogshit team last year, but they have been pretty decent in MAC play and could be going bowling if they wouldn't have blown games against Buffalo and Ball State. This is NIU's swan song in the MAC but hard to see a team that has underachieving all year getting up for that. What do they care about the MAC? NIU really can't pass the ball so they will be pounding the rock which is what Kent wants you to do. I would expect they try the running QB from Pine Bluff again as the starter but it probably will be a committee of guys in the pivot for the Huskies.
I think it's a good chance for Kent to win and validate the choice last month to make their interim coach into the full-fledged pick. I think I might believe in this Kent team a little bit. They won the Wagon Wheel a few weeks ago so Kent does have a road win even if it was up the street in Akron. Expecting a friends and family crowd in Dekalb with absolutely nothing on the line.

My play: Kent +5.5 to win 1 unit

Also threw Kent into a ML parlay with Pittsburgh. Half unit to win 3.94 units

31 degrees in Pittsburgh tomorrow. I will cold weather fade the Canes every chance I get.
 
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Kent has made big plays in the passing game almost every game this year. Kind of have to play this...I would play any kind of long TD or long pass over for Kent...

My play: Longest TD Kent to win half unit (-105)
 
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Great lakes region is so tough to gauge weather in the winter. Buffalo only forecast to get about half an inch of snow today. I'm an hour west and we are forecast to get 8-16" of snow today and through the night.

I like your CMich play Marsski. I'm on the chips as well.
 
Hulu said:
I like your CMich play Marsski. I'm on the chips as well.
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I erred and didn't realize that CMU having any chance will require a Buffalo win today. Not liking it as much anymore now that motivation might be in question.
 
YTD 12-10, +2.82 units

MAC Championship game in Detroit: Western Michigan vs Miami (+2.5, 43.5)


Well, Central should have beat Toledo if you watched that game, there was some crazy shit that happened. We didn't have a great MACtion year but if you tailed me you won money. Show me another person anywhere who posts winners in this fucked up league every year.

Moving on....we got a rematch of earlier this year when Miami beat Western for our MAC championship game (even though Miami lost to Toledo and Ohio.)

Miami will be starting a different QB in this one as Finn has left town. He has been serviceable but played a couple of fairly horseshit defenses in Ball State and Buffalo. Big class test to face Western. I feel like Western has been the class of the league even though I don't really care for their QB draw offense. They have a stout defense, a good RB to go along with the QB run and strongline play on both sides of the ball. Miami doesn't deserve to be here and their coach plays it too tight to the vest for my liking.
Unless Miami's new QB is better than I think, Western will crowd the line of scrimmage and stifle Miami's running game. Western wins this one by 7-10....

My play: Western -2.5 to win 1unit

See you next year boys.
 
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