MACtion Bowl Thread

[wiseplayer]

I don’t think I have the Vid but I’m home a little under the weather and thought what better way to spend today then examining 1 of my favorite under the radar conferences.
8 teams are in opposed to only 2 opting in last season. Hard to believe we almost missed and entire MAC season in 2020.
I’ll have my thoughts on this conference who collectively played horrible D. Looking forward to the MAC experts we have on this board to chime in on this weekends games. Kind of cool there will be a MAC team playing early on New Years Eve.

 

[s--k]

8 I believe is a record for the conference. Typically a 6-6 team gets left home for some poor MAC team. Not this year!

Toledo OL not great. Other than general inconsistencies out of them that is about the only area they might not have an advantage in their bowl game. Really, for as good as recruiting classes they sign, pretty underachieving team - like pretty much every season. When they play to their best they are definitely among the tops in the league. Except for that OL problem.

Toledo message board - CSNbbs - Toledo
You'll mostly see fans there wishing they were better.

NIU we all know about. Great story off last year and what they achieved this year. Looks like the WR who was their #1 at the time, Richie, is not able to return for the bowl. Pretty bad D.

Northern Illinois message board - CSNbbs - Northern Illinois
You'll mostly see fans thinking they are like the best program ever in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan is a pretty consistent team year-in and year-out. Good mold they have. The D is down this year and the O is hot and cold. Their bowl game results have been a mirror image of their regular season results. So many one possession games...only 6 this season. Last year 4 of 6 were one score games. Regular season 2019 and 2018 7 one possession games each year. Reg ssn 2017 9 one score games. No surprise, every bowl they have been in have been one score games and they are 3-0 ATS all as dogs, yet 0-3 SU.

Eastern Michigan message board - CSNbbs - Eastern Michigan
You'll mostly see fans there pretty into their team and generally optimistic about the program even though they seem to have a glass ceiling.

Kent State always has tons of potential on O and always an abysmal D (except vs Akron)! Western and Central both handled Kent pretty easily, and NIU made them look bad in the rematch, so it's not like they are just some hot knife meets butter team.

Kent State message board - CSNbbs - Kent State
You'll mostly see fans complaining about the bowl and location there.

Miami Oh has always been a "meh" type team for me. I think of them as solid but unspectacular on O and D.

I don't know where Miami Ohio fans congregate.

Ball State was huge disappointment this year, or maybe the 2020 year was just a total fluke? Probably a fluke. Surprising how bad they were on O at times this season with a pretty veteran unit.

I don't go to Ball State message boards, instead get news from the Muncie Star Press which hasn't had much lately.

A key name to watch for Ball State is WR Justin Hall. Stud WR who they can use in the run game occasionally too. Was hurt towards end of year and think he only played enough in the finale to get some career record and then watched from the sidelines. He is an opt out potential.

Western Michigan is really the biggest head scratcher of the bunch for me. The O should be better and the D shouldn't be as bad.

Western Michigan message board - CSNbbs - The Dan Burgardt Memorial Bronco Football Forum
Here you will probably see fans criticizing HC Lester

Central Michigan I think is one of the top all-around teams in the MAC. Their QB play from Richardson isn't always as good as you would want.

Central Michigan message board - CSNbbs - Central Michigan
I haven't read anything there in a while, but just looking now looks like they love to talk recruiting

 

[wiseplayer]

8 I believe is a record for the conference. Typically a 6-6 team gets left home for some poor MAC team. Not this year!

Toledo OL not great. Other than general inconsistencies out of them that is about the only area they might not have an advantage in their bowl game. Really, for as good as recruiting classes they sign, pretty underachieving team - like pretty much every season. When they play to their best they are definitely among the tops in the league. Except for that OL problem.

Toledo message board - CSNbbs - Toledo
You'll mostly see fans there wishing they were better.

NIU we all know about. Great story off last year and what they achieved this year. Looks like the WR who was their #1 at the time, Richie, is not able to return for the bowl. Pretty bad D.

Northern Illinois message board - CSNbbs - Northern Illinois
You'll mostly see fans thinking they are like the best program ever in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan is a pretty consistent team year-in and year-out. Good mold they have. The D is down this year and the O is hot and cold. Their bowl game results have been a mirror image of their regular season results. So many one possession games...only 6 this season. Last year 4 of 6 were one score games. Regular season 2019 and 2018 7 one possession games each year. Reg ssn 2017 9 one score games. No surprise, every bowl they have been in have been one score games and they are 3-0 ATS all as dogs, yet 0-3 SU.

Eastern Michigan message board - CSNbbs - Eastern Michigan
You'll mostly see fans there pretty into their team and generally optimistic about the program even though they seem to have a glass ceiling.

Kent State always has tons of potential on O and always an abysmal D (except vs Akron)! Western and Central both handled Kent pretty easily, and NIU made them look bad in the rematch, so it's not like they are just some hot knife meets butter team.

Kent State message board - CSNbbs - Kent State
You'll mostly see fans complaining about the bowl and location there.

Miami Oh has always been a "meh" type team for me. I think of them as solid but unspectacular on O and D.

I don't know where Miami Ohio fans congregate.

Ball State was huge disappointment this year, or maybe the 2020 year was just a total fluke? Probably a fluke. Surprising how bad they were on O at times this season with a pretty veteran unit.

I don't go to Ball State message boards, instead get news from the Muncie Star Press which hasn't had much lately.

A key name to watch for Ball State is WR Justin Hall. Stud WR who they can use in the run game occasionally too. Was hurt towards end of year and think he only played enough in the finale to get some career record and then watched from the sidelines. He is an opt out potential.

Western Michigan is really the biggest head scratcher of the bunch for me. The O should be better and the D shouldn't be as bad.

Western Michigan message board - CSNbbs - The Dan Burgardt Memorial Bronco Football Forum
Here you will probably see fans criticizing HC Lester

Central Michigan I think is one of the top all-around teams in the MAC. Their QB play from Richardson isn't always as good as you would want.

Central Michigan message board - CSNbbs - Central Michigan
I haven't read anything there in a while, but just looking now looks like they love to talk recruiting

Great stuff!

 

[wiseplayer]

Holy shit how bad is the MAC?

 

[s--k]

Holy shit how bad is the MAC?

1-2 ATS

Toledo has lost games they shouldn't all year, so them losing isn't a huge shock.

Eastern's D was going to be up against it. The final margin was more lopsided than I think even most Liberty backers might've expected.

Northern Illinois could've won.

 

[wiseplayer]

1-2 ATS

Toledo has lost games they shouldn't all year, so them losing isn't a huge shock.

Eastern's D was going to be up against it. The final margin was more lopsided than I think even most Liberty backers might've expected.

Northern Illinois could've won.

Is there a mismatch coming up?

 

[s--k]

It might look like Wyoming vs Kent State is a mismatch and I do tend to like the Wyoming run game potential vs Kent State D. That should be a mismatch. And if WYO can run, then chances are they can pass. They can't pass when they can't run, but when they are running I think that is when the pressure is off and the opposing D is more vulnerable to the WYO pass O which is generally pretty bad.

However, the Wyoming D isn't all that good either. Think there might be some misconception about this Wyoming D compared to their normal D units. And Kent is capable on O most games. San Jose and NIU each eclipsed 6 ypc vs WYO run D and Utah St ran for nearly 5. Kent O got shut down vs a few of their match bowl opponents (WM, CM and NIU part 2).

If there is a mismatch upcoming, it would look like the poor Kent D and a sometimes inconsistent Kent O. I can't ignore flaws on that Wyoming team however so hard for me to think Wyoming wins in a slam dunk. Kent head and shoulders has the better QB in the game.

Elsewhere, Miami Ohio does everything "pretty good", all around solid. I don't seem them being head and shoulders better than North Texas and this is the weakest opponent North Texas has played in a bowl game. Might think both teams score points in this one.

Ball State isn't anything special this year and I typically do like Georgia State. Georgia State D could be good enough to limit Ball State O, especially if WR Hall doesn't play. But then again, the Georgia State O isn't fantastic themselves. Feels like that game could be a grinder.

If Nevada was at full strength, WM would be at a decent disadvantage. As it is now, it would be a huge disappointment if WM lost that game.

I think Central Michigan can beat Boise, but they will need to get top notch QB play, something they don;t always get.

The biggest mismatch I believe is behind us. It was Liberty vs Eastern Michigan. History said that EM would play a close game and that Liberty would underperform like they have so often this year. Instead Liberty D dominated and Freeze and Willis got to pick their score.

What are your expectations on the games?

 

[s--k]

Wyoming led NIU 42-16 3rd Q in Dekalb. WYO scored on D and had another TD drive start inside the N20 after a turnover. NIU stormed back to take a 43-42 lead! But WYO won 50-43.

Wyoming's most impressive win was at Utah State.

Wyoming also beat another MAC team, Ball State 45-12 (led 31-0)

Wyoming beat both the MAC Champ and the MWC Champ.

Then there are the lows, like literally almost losing to UConn. Being shut out at home by Fresno. Failing to score a TD and really losing to New Mexico in Laramie. And then getting blown out at home in the finale by Hawaii.

Hard to say what Wyoming team shows up.

 

[s--k]

Maybe we can say it like this.

Toledo should've been able to win going away and score over 40 pts. Did not happen.

NIU - Coastal Carolina should've been a good game. It happened.

Liberty should've been able to win if playing to their full potential. It happened.

Wyoming should be able to run the ball well and their D is probably good enough to limit some Kent possessions like WM and CM did. Will that happen?

 

[EL CAPO]

I really like wyoming today but that's an underrated point on their run d that makes that bet a little scary.

I think north texas is going to be a public side with way they ending season - but who was their competition ? I kinda think Miami is the better team here, good run defense. But motivational edge may go to north texas - playing close to home - and miami oh off a heartbreaking loss to get to the conference championship game. Hard to back miami oh with their horrendous red zone offense.

Is doubs playing for nevada ? he's the only guy that hasn't been declared sitting out. At the same time western michigan can't cover against akron, how can you trust them to cover even against a depleted nevada team. Really no news out of nevada - very quiet on there practices for this game and what they plan to do. Just seems like a mash unit.

 

[s--k]

Just got the Kent State injury report:

RB Xavier Willams (injury) OUT
- he is #2 RB with 812 yards, they use a 1-2 rotation at RB, so now either #1 Cooper (1080y) gets more action or a guy like Bradford is more involved (41 att 2021)

TE Kris Leach (injury) OUT
- only 7 catches this year (93y), but 2 were for TD. Backup Hacket has almost as many catches in 5, but way less yards (21) that Leach

S Nico Bolden (injury) OUT
- #2 tackler

CB Capone Blue (injury) OUT
-back up

 

[wiseplayer]

MAC 1-3 ATS so far.

 

[s--k]

MAC 1-3 ATS so far.

And obviously 0-4 SU. Kent had some game, but WYO stopped drives and then the anticipated mismatch developed as the 2nd H wore on. One of the surprising things out of that game was how highly WYO's pass D was ranked and Kent torched it. Didn't matter because Kent's D was so bad themselves.

Now, in my opinion, that is the last of the potential MAC mismatches. I do like Georgia St, but I expect a lower scoring game there with BallSt hanging around. I also believe I like NTex but I could see that game going either way and both scoring. Then, hopefully, CMich is competitive because I think I am betting them to win - CM will be at QB disadvantage. WM-Nev feels like WM-NIU when they rested all their starters and WM rose to a7 pt road fav. WM HC Lester is capable of fucking up a sure win, but man it's going to take a lot of fucking up or some uniqueness out of the Pack.

 

[s--k]

Is doubs playing for nevada ? he's the only guy that hasn't been declared sitting out. At the same time western michigan can't cover against akron, how can you trust them to cover even against a depleted nevada team. Really no news out of nevada - very quiet on there practices for this game and what they plan to do. Just seems like a mash unit.

2-Deep is out. Doubs is not listed

https://twitter.com/x/status/1473375839332884485

 

[s--k]

Offensive line: Jermaine Ledbetter (guard), Aaron Frost (tackle) and Tyler Orsini (center) combine to give Nevada a veteran presence at each position. They have combined to make 77 career starts for the Pack. Jacob Nunez and Grant Starck will be seeing their first significant action.

Clearly Nevada will look to run the ball much more than normal. And I think they can do it if that is their gameplan and commitment for this game. With Strong at QB and Mumme at OC the clear gameplan was always pass first. RB Taua has had big games before. 4 year guy at RB. 2 of the 5 OL positions will have new faces though. Nunez has 3 career starts, twice this year and played in 4 this year. Starck has played in 9 with no starts.

The D loses some good players at LB, but otherwise is mostly the same.

2-deep analysis here:

What will the Nevada football team look like in the bowl game? Here's your first look

With more than 15 players, including many veterans, entering the transfer portal, Nevada’s depth chart has been torn up and remade for the Quick Lane Bowl.

www.rgj.com

Game Notes here:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/nevadawolfpack.com/documents/2021/12/21/12_21_21_QuickLaneBowlGameNotes.pdf

Hard to make sense or feel confident in the Nevada coaching staff. It looks like this:

Assistant Coaches
Vai Taua (3rd season; 5th overall).Int. Head Coach
Jackie Shipp (3rd season) ................Defensive Ends
Riccardo Stewart (1st season; 2nd overall)..... Secondary
Ronnie Wheat (2nd season).................. Linebackers
Jimbo Davis (2nd season; 4th overall) GA - Defense
Will Heffner (1st season) ...................... GA - Defense
Ben Putman (2nd season) .................... GA - Offense
Brett Bartolone............................... Offensive Analyst
Jack Ray.................................... Special Teams Analyst

 

[Rusty Trombone]

And obviously 0-4 SU. Kent had some game, but WYO stopped drives and then the anticipated mismatch developed as the 2nd H wore on. One of the surprising things out of that game was how highly WYO's pass D was ranked and Kent torched it. Didn't matter because Kent's D was so bad themselves.

Now, in my opinion, that is the last of the potential MAC mismatches. I do like Georgia St, but I expect a lower scoring game there with BallSt hanging around. I also believe I like NTex but I could see that game going either way and both scoring. Then, hopefully, CMich is competitive because I think I am betting them to win - CM will be at QB disadvantage. WM-Nev feels like WM-NIU when they rested all their starters and WM rose to a7 pt road fav. WM HC Lester is capable of fucking up a sure win, but man it's going to take a lot of fucking up or some uniqueness out of the Pack.

I really like the O55 in the Boise St/CMU game. Boise big advantage thru the air and should handle the Chipps secondary easily.....I expect 41+ outta BSU....CMU should be good for 24+

 

[s--k]

Boise - CM Over is possible. I think I'd be surprised if Boise won by such margin, but not impossible.

To me, Central Michigan is right up there as the best in the MAC. They beat Kent by 24 and only lost to NIU by 1 on a game ending FG (CM as I remember blew a decent lead). Central Michigan vs other MAC bowl teams is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. I think they might have the best and most consistent D in the MAC also, but the Miami D would be the other best MAC D.

Boise has been really up and down this year, but has a better roster and plays a higher level of competition obviously. Maybe it depends what side of the bed Boise wakes up on, Will we get a Boise team that fails to get out of the 20s as they have in in 7 of their 12 games? Or will they more resemble what we expect of them? With a D minded HC seems they are transitioning some to a different style of winning - lower scoring and less O.

Definite QB advantage to Boise. I'm still not willing to sell CM short.

 

[wiseplayer]

Boise - CM Over is possible. I think I'd be surprised if Boise won by such margin, but not impossible.

To me, Central Michigan is right up there as the best in the MAC. They beat Kent by 24 and only lost to NIU by 1 on a game ending FG (CM as I remember blew a decent lead). Central Michigan vs other MAC bowl teams is 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS. I think they might have the best and most consistent D in the MAC also, but the Miami D would be the other best MAC D.

Boise has been really up and down this year, but has a better roster and plays a higher level of competition obviously. Maybe it depends what side of the bed Boise wakes up on, Will we get a Boise team that fails to get out of the 20s as they have in in 7 of their 12 games? Or will they more resemble what we expect of them? With a D minded HC seems they are transitioning some to a different style of winning - lower scoring and less O.

Definite QB advantage to Boise. I'm still not willing to sell CM short.

Good points

 

[rochclone]

Clearly Nevada will look to run the ball much more than normal. And I think they can do it if that is their gameplan and commitment for this game. With Strong at QB and Mumme at OC the clear gameplan was always pass first. RB Taua has had big games before. 4 year guy at RB. 2 of the 5 OL positions will have new faces though. Nunez has 3 career starts, twice this year and played in 4 this year. Starck has played in 9 with no starts.

The D loses some good players at LB, but otherwise is mostly the same.

2-deep analysis here:

What will the Nevada football team look like in the bowl game? Here's your first look

With more than 15 players, including many veterans, entering the transfer portal, Nevada’s depth chart has been torn up and remade for the Quick Lane Bowl.

www.rgj.com

Game Notes here:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/nevadawolfpack.com/documents/2021/12/21/12_21_21_QuickLaneBowlGameNotes.pdf

Hard to make sense or feel confident in the Nevada coaching staff. It looks like this:

I’m starting to have a feeling that Nevada at +7 is the right side.

 

[s--k]

I will say that Western Michigan should be better than they are. But the fact they are not (just .500 in MAC play) indicates some kind of problems with them.

It's hard to really like Nevada without knowing much about their replacement players on O or the coaching staff, but yes, it is becoming intriguing.

 

[EL CAPO]

Breaking down Nevada's depth chart for its bowl against Western Michigan

The Nevada football team's pre-bowl preparation has almost exclusively been conducted behind closed doors as the Wolf Pack looks to keep an edge of mystery after losing roughly 20 players and half its coaching staff over the last couple of weeks following Jay Norvell's departure for Colorado...

nevadasportsnet.com

Wide receiver (X): Evidence Njoku/Carson Walters: Nevada's elite pass-catching corps has been depleted with the team's top-five receivers/tight ends no longer on the roster. Njoku is a 6-5 former tight end who spent time at Miami (Fla.) and UCLA who will make his Wolf Pack debut. His older brother, David, is a standout tight end for the Cleveland Browns. Walters is a walk-on who previously played at Nebraska-Kearney.

Wide receiver (H): Jamaal Bell/Dylan Overstreet: The Wolf Pack's typical starting slot receiver, Melquan Stovall, transferred Colorado State, opening this spot for Bell, the team's most veteran receiver for the bowl. Bell is Nevada's starting kick returner and has 10 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in his two-year college career. He was highly recruited and will have a chance to take a larger role in the bowl. Overstreet is a true freshman walk-on who came to Nevada as a running back.

Wide receiver (Z): Tyrese Mack/Zeke Robbins: This position is typically held down by Romeo Doubs, who had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Doubs has not officially said he's not playing in the bowl to prepare for the draft, but that's the expectation. He'll be replaced by Mack, who spent time at Utah State and City College of San Francisco before joining Nevada this season. Robbins is a JuCo transfer defensive back who is in his second year with the Wolf Pack.

--looks like nevada is starting 2 walk ons at receiver. One who was recruited as a running back. The Njoku kid has transferred twice and can't get on the field as a former tight end, is now a receiver. Also starting a former juco defensive back.

I think under is good for this game which is what in the high 50s. Nevada still has an underrated and good d and most are playing.

On offense it could be bad for nevada, real bad. How do they move the ball if these receivers can't get open or catch ? Think San Jose State this year - who was garbage to start the year because they lost receivers from last year. Ironically they played Western Michigan and lost, and didn't even cover 7. Common opponent.

Western is a bad fav and nevada a great dog - but I think I throw that out the window if it seems likely nevada won't be able to move the ball. What are they gonna do run it ? They are bottom 10 team in run blocking. - if they can't run it all year with 5 or 6 in the box, they aren't running it now. They are an offense built on receivers, everything flows through them. Now some teams their 3rd string receiver can still be competent, but I'll take my bet that's not the case here. Add in they lost Norvell who seemed to be the heartbeat of that team., their oc, qb coach, wr coach, and dc who went to washington state. Not sure the coaching braintrust is that good for nevada right now, nor the team moral.

Gotta think western michigan gonna have some pride and show up in their hometown - or at least because they know it would be embarrasing to lose this game.

Another thought to norvell leaving too maybe that he realizes after strong leaves he was going to be in for a rough few years talent wise at nevada, just speculation.

 

[wiseplayer]

I peeked in and out during the Miam Ohio game yesterday. Appeared unwatchable

 

[s--k]

There were two critical INTs by North Texas in the 1stH, one handed Miami a short field TD and the other occurred in the EZ when North Texas was inside the 10. Then they were later SOD from inside the 5...I think they ran straight ahead 3x for no yard then tried to pass on 4th and the QB pissed himself.

Miami run D was very good. Otherwise there weren't any redeeming qualities coming out of that one.

 

[s--k]

Good point @EL CAPO on the WM vs San Jose game.

This WM-Nev game also reminds me of WM-NIU game where NIU rested starters ahead of title game.

 

[s--k]

Note the KO time of that WM-Nev bowl game. 11am eastern = 8am Reno time

 

[EL CAPO]

It might look like Wyoming vs Kent State is a mismatch and I do tend to like the Wyoming run game potential vs Kent State D. That should be a mismatch. And if WYO can run, then chances are they can pass. They can't pass when they can't run, but when they are running I think that is when the pressure is off and the opposing D is more vulnerable to the WYO pass O which is generally pretty bad.

However, the Wyoming D isn't all that good either. Think there might be some misconception about this Wyoming D compared to their normal D units. And Kent is capable on O most games. San Jose and NIU each eclipsed 6 ypc vs WYO run D and Utah St ran for nearly 5. Kent O got shut down vs a few of their match bowl opponents (WM, CM and NIU part 2).

If there is a mismatch upcoming, it would look like the poor Kent D and a sometimes inconsistent Kent O. I can't ignore flaws on that Wyoming team however so hard for me to think Wyoming wins in a slam dunk. Kent head and shoulders has the better QB in the game.

Elsewhere, Miami Ohio does everything "pretty good", all around solid. I don't seem them being head and shoulders better than North Texas and this is the weakest opponent North Texas has played in a bowl game. Might think both teams score points in this one.

Ball State isn't anything special this year and I typically do like Georgia State. Georgia State D could be good enough to limit Ball State O, especially if WR Hall doesn't play. But then again, the Georgia State O isn't fantastic themselves. Feels like that game could be a grinder.

If Nevada was at full strength, WM would be at a decent disadvantage. As it is now, it would be a huge disappointment if WM lost that game.

I think Central Michigan can beat Boise, but they will need to get top notch QB play, something they don;t always get.

The biggest mismatch I believe is behind us. It was Liberty vs Eastern Michigan. History said that EM would play a close game and that Liberty would underperform like they have so often this year. Instead Liberty D dominated and Freeze and Willis got to pick their score.

What are your expectations on the games?

you still like central with the bowl change ? seems like they should be able to run on wazzou.......just looking for another opinion on this sun bowl game

 

[s--k]

It's strange in that Boise was what -6.5/8 range favorite over Central Michigan?

Washington State is -7 vs Central Michigan?

I do not make Boise State and Washington State equals. Maybe the line is just reflecting the players out for Wazzou now?

I do like Central Michigan's team, yes. But partially did not like Boise as well. I have liked Washington State most of the year. For me the game is tougher to pick CM now. I'd pick Wash State over Boise every time. So Wazzou should be favored by more than Boise was vs CM, and they aren't.