MAC-daddies .....Friday Night Discussion Thread

booksbestfriend

booksbestfriend

On Johnny's Shitlist
Was up early and did not see a thread started yet. Thought WTF, let gets this weekend started off right. Two games on the slate - take your choice break it down, o/u or side, I don't care. Put your best effort forward and give the forum some winners.

BUFFALO @ BOWLING GREEN
MIAMI (OH) @ TOLEDO

Let me throw my .02 in- Buff (+3.5) should have waited for BOB but did not. Oh well, still feel I am on the right side. Gill has had this team fired up this year. They have loaded up on the frequent flier miles recently, but Gill's name is still on allot of short list. Think this will keep his name in the hunt for a possible Syracuse HC job. Buff wins SU. Good luck in whatever your decision.
 
books, i respectfully disagree. i think if you like buffalo you should just bet the over. how is buffalo going to stop bowling green? i realize they will probably have success running on bg, but i highly doubt they'll have any success in stopping them, and this is a bowl eligible game for bg and a game they can climb back into things in the mac at home...buff off that multiple ot game, just don't see how their defense slows bg down. weather shouldn't be too much of an issue for bg, it will be cold, but the wind is supposed to die down and they are just expecting off and on snow flurries. gl with your wagers...
 
here's some banter from my thread between aztec and i...

Their (bg's) run defense is HORRIBLE (175 yds/game). If Starks doesn't run for 150+, I'll be surprised. Buffalo will probably run for 180+ as a team.

This is the same defense that lost at home to a 2-8 EMU squad (21-24)...lost at home to 2-8 Miami OH squad (20-27)...and struggled to hold off Kent St 45-30. None of these teams have an offense that even comes close to Buffalo's, as the Bulls clearly have the best QB (Willy) and best Running Back (Starks) of all these teams. Willy hasn't thrown an INT since Oct. 11th, and it was as a result of a pass that went right thru the hands of Roosevelt and into the WMU defender's. Willy has 18 TDs and only 4 INTs this year...that's AWESOME.

Buffalo has faced much better passing teams this year, which have inflated their defensive passing stats (UTEP, Missouri, CMU, WMU & Akron). Their 6-4 overall, and have lost to the four best teams on their schedule (Missouri, Pitt, CMU & WMU). They lost to CMU by 2 (at CMU), and WMU by 6. Bowling Green isn't in the class of either of those teams.

If this line were 2 or less, I might hesitate...but laying OVER a FG with a squad that has only beat a team with a winning record ONCE the entire season??? No thanks. That lone win was back in Week 1, when PITT lost the turnover battle 4-1, and played like crap the entire game).

If anything, I think Buffalo's defeat at the hands of the Falcons last season is more motivation for the Bulls than it is Bowling Green. I'll take my chances with Buffalo +3.5, which I feel is not only the better team, but on a mission to atone for choking last year.

----------------------

i can completely see your points on buffalo aztec, and i don't think i ever said that bowling green's defense is good...if i implied that i surely didn't mean to. that was my main argument of why i laid the points in the pitt game...thinking pitt would run all over them, which they did but it still didn't work out for them. since the pitt game misread, i've had a good read on them, going 6-1 on their games (a couple had a lot to do with nropp, regardless, i'm surprised to see i bet on 8 of their games this year haha). i think it's easily explainable why they lost some of the game they did, as i bet againt them minny, miami, emu but i won't get too much into those reasons because they're not that relevant to this game. i realize how you can have a concern for their rush defense, but for whatever reason they were able to EITHER beat or keep teams from scoring a whole lot whose primary objective is to run (ie pitt, boise, niu, kent).

one thing i disagree with you on is that utep and akron are better passing offenses than bowling green. not sure what the numbers say, but i don't care too much because i am confident that bg has a better qb and better weapons than those two dogshit teams, who by the way, moved the ball through the air quite a bit vs buffalo. bg has underperformed this season, and now have their backs up against the wall to make a bowl game and to gain a share of first place in the mac east. motivation is either even or in favor of bg here. just can't see many reasons why bg doesn't get to the mid-30s here. maybe buffalo does too, but i'm taking my chances that a team going on the road again off that multiple ot win that couldn't get to the 20s last year with the same personnel at home -- does not get to into the 30s.

we'll see...should be a another hard fought, good mac game


and also note that bg's pass defense will put a lot of pressure on willy and is the best secondary willy has faced in a while. i wouldn't necessarily be banking on willy continuing to not make any mistakes based on his performance this year. i agree that he is a helluva qb, but the pressure and secondary combination he'll face in this game hasn't been this level the last few games...this is probably what i meant if i had said in your thread that bg's defense has been looking better or whatever
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this started the above convo...

aztec:

Buffalo +3.5 --> Even after their emotionally draining, 4OT win at Akron last week, I still think the Bulls will win this won SU. The Bulls are on a mission this season. IMO, of all Bowling Green's opponents this year, Buffalo has the best passing attack. Sheehan is good, but Willy and Roosevelt continue to impress me week in and week out. On top of that, James Starks is a BEAST, and should put up big numbers against an unimpressive Falcon defense. The Bulls win this, and they secure a spot in the MAC Championship game

me:

have really liked buff for the most part all year, but every explosive offense they've faced they've struggled. cmu, western mich, temple have a lot of speed at their skills positions and rely on explosive plays rather than grind it out running the football. they struggled in all 3 of those games, losing 2 of 3 and needing a hail mary to win the other. miami, akron, ohio don't have that same explosiveness imo. bg obviously does, and their defense has improved from last year despite some of these numbers imo. they went into the blue turf and held the smurfs to 20, so i would think they can hold buffalo in that range, and tehy will surely be in the 30s. last year in buffalo they scored 31 and had an extremely efficient game on the road. bg is playing at home for bowl eligibility and a share of 1st in the mac east. i like the falcons here. maybe the over as well.
 
Buffalo/BGSU: I?ve rode Buffalo for the last 3 games they?ve played and they?ve brought me the cash. This game however is going to be the hardest they?ve encountered in this stretch. Last weeks game was a 4OT win in a hostile environment over Akron 43-40. Both teams in this contest are still alive for the MAC-East, otherwise known as, the runner up to Ball St. By now everyone is aware what Willy-Starks are doing for this Buffalo offense along with Roosevelt on the outside. They are explosive on this side of the ball and they take care of the football. The problem comes in on defense where they?ve relied on turnovers to otherwise get them out of bad position. They have trouble pressuring the QB and they?ve been gashed by both the run and the pass. The problem with BGSU is that you have no idea what team you are doing to get. Wins at Pitt, play Boise tough, crush Wyoming, lose at home to Eastern Mich, lose at home to Miami (OH), rip off 2 wins against Kent & Ohio. BGSU is coming off a bye though while Buffalo as I said is coming off a 4 OT game, fatigue could be an issue here. Tyler Sheehan has been good this year and his stats are pretty close to Willy?s, most of the BGSU scores have come through the air as well. The BGSU defense has been gashed by the run but their total YPG allowed is relatively low. This is not a game I am ready to make a decision on yet, although the OVER 55 is my initial lean here. As far as a side, finding this one a bit tough, I can make a good case for both teams here.
 
All of my numbers are pointing to a SU win. Both have something to play for with WMU on deck for Ball St. The point about the 4 OT is something to take into consideration. But if you feel that Buff will run out of gas, then the over might be shot as well. The best chance of winning for Buff is if the running game is effective. If anyone on the team is tired it is Starks. He has carried the load for Buff since returning to the backfield. I may try to hedge, but am locked in on Buff at the moment. Nothing like going into a wager with doubt on your side. I will revisit this after running calculations again. May have to add double home field advantage for the 4OT game from last week. Will check back later, after lunch.
 
i think as far as line value is concerned, it's tough to say that buff has the value imo. i know you can make a good case saying that they're well-coached, fundamentally sound, have a very balanced, mistake-free offense, and have been hot ats, even on the road....but they have definitely played above expectations, while bg has definitely played below expectations overall. i think some of these offensive skills players desperately want to get back to a bowl by winning their last two games to avenge the embarassment of last year's bowl--making this home game the biggest game of the year for them. so imo you would give them extra hfa for that as well. and they had a couple of games where they laid eggs and didn't get much on the board, but their offense can score on just about anybody...buffalo's defense is their weakness, and i don't think they can keep up with bowling green who should be able to run enough to keep the secondary honest. one thing i wouldn't be too concerned about is starks running out of gas. i think it takes a lot out of your sails emotionally playing the 4 OT game and should definitely be considered, but if we zoom in on starks, he's a beast and he's got a very good back behind him for a one-two punch. buff should definitely be able to have success on the ground tonight. my wager is based primarily on the other side of the ball. i think the importance of the game and emotion at home can help a defense that struggles against the run, but i still fully expect starks near or over 100 yards

also, imo some people are holding too much weight to miami oh and emu...both were far different spots for both of the teams coming into the games, and the matchups, history, intangible factors were entirely different as well. this is a very very different matchup and spot.
 
EMU is not a factor in my calculations as it is not a common opponent. However, the last 3 opponents are. Buff was 3-0, where as BG was 2-1 SU. With Miami (OH) beating BG straight up @ BG. BG was outgained both rushing and passing in all there in conference losses. We have already establised that Buff has an advantage in the running game. I feel that Willy is the difference maker in this match-up. He should be able to manage the game if he will has short down and distance on 3rd downs. Buff does not typically shoot themselves in the foot with penalties.

I will run my initial double adv. and I will see if I have time to add 9 for HFC. I am more than sure that the 3xHFC will show a large gap for your arguement on BG. I just cannot place much value in that. It is giving too much advantage to a team and would certainly be skewed.
 
Am I crazy for absolutely loving Toledo only laying 3 here? If there's such a thing as one 2-8 being convincingly better, much better, than another 2-8 team from the same conference, I think this is it...
 
nropp11 said:
not this year, they changed it this year to only count your conference games for your title.

it's a shame that only one out of CMU/Ball/WMU goes to the title game
Click to expand...

Well, there goes that motivational factor. Has the MAC always been this way? Or like you say "not this year". was this just started?
 
nropp11 said:
not this year, they changed it this year to only count your conference games for your title.

it's a shame that only one out of CMU/Ball/WMU goes to the title game
Click to expand...

The shame is one could be left out entirely in the bowl picture. These 3 have just as good of a chance to win as 75% of the 6 and 7 win teams in all the major conferences.
 
couple things about miami when you're considering the two different matchups...miami shook up their whole offense the week of bg, and imo that is what led to the win. they usually play bg well and the offensive players that they inserted, including a change at qb to belton, was a change for the better and has helped this offense out quite a bit. bg had no film on this.

the buffalo/miami game was simply a lot closer than the final score shows. first, there was a 62 yard garbage time td at the end of the fourth for buff. buff had three long pass plays to roosevelt early to make it 14-3 before miami could really even get going. forced a fresh qb (who got banged up in the fourth, also allowing the score to look a lot closer) into comeback mode on the road, never a good thing. they were still able to put up nearly 400 yards of offense and get 23 first downs. i think this game was pretty close throughout, miami just got burned deep early. i know etg disagrees with me, but then again we both had betting goggles on, myself on the losing end...so fwiw
 
booksbestfriend said:
Well, there goes that motivational factor. Has the MAC always been this way? Or like you say "not this year". was this just started?
Click to expand...

just started this year.

they had to do it. just think if bowling green goes 9-0 in conference, yet avoids playing ball, wmu, and cmu.

and not with the same teams, but it's happened in previous years where a team has snuck into the title game cuz of a lesser schedule.
 
My numbers are right on my initial lean having Buff -1. Taking out all non-common opponents I am seeing BG with a slight edge over the current -4. Pitt weighs heavy on the balance. If I start plugging motivational factors, the line goes to BG. Looks like I will hedge with the front end of a parlay for damage control. Got to get back to work. I'll check in later.
 
joe - I just think laying more than a field goal with a team that can't stop anybody's running game is a big risk, and that sums up BG. Buffalo has one of the best running backs in the MAC in Starks, and they LOVE time consuming, methodical drives...it's demoralizing for the opposing offense. If they get just a few of those long TD drives, it really could keep the Falcon offense out of rhythm. And despite the near-comeback by Akron last week, I still feel Buffalo has a decent secondary. Their safeties can definitely stop the run, even though they do allow yardage thru the air.

Conversely, the reason Bowling Green's pass defense looks so good is their complete inability to stop a rushing attack. Just look at how they fared vs their last five opponents...

@ Ohio --> 40
vs Kent --> 259
@ NIU --> 233
vs MiaOH --> 218
@ Akron --> 206

Hell, Buffalo went to 4OT with Akron, and they still gave up less rushing yards than Bowling Green. And IMO, the Ohio game is an anomoly. Ohio had three drives that stalled inside the BG 20, and the team's confidence was shattered.

Also, one stat I think we haven't touched on is turnover margin.

In Buffalo's last five games, they're +2, +2, +4, +1, +2...+11 in their last five games. This is not by chance...this team has been creating turnovers all year, because they've got big hitters in their secondary, and they strip the ball better than any team in the MAC (I know, I've seen this team play half their games this season).

In Bowling Green's last five games, they're +2, 0, +1, -1, -1...+1 in their last five games. I don't think there's any question which team creates more turnovers.

I'm looking at this with a hint of eames...

I'll take the team with the better rush defense, better rush offense, and defense with a penchant for creating turnovers, getting more than a field goal on the road (Buffalo 5-0 ATS on the road this season).

:shake:
 
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orange out, senior day in bowling green.

i disagree with bg's pass defense "looking good" because of their inability to stop the run. i think that definitely sways the stats, but they have talented pass rushers and secondary that is experienced and ranks 1st in the conference. great cohesiveness for this group won't translate into blown assignments that buff has had the fortune of in the past in a couple of their mac games. they have the inferior rush defense, but it's not like buffalo is eye-popping against the run. i def expect bg to be able to run the ball. turnover margin is a reason why i liked this buff team a lot this year, and is a testament to being well-disciplined, well-coached and a qb that is very safe with the football. i highly doubt sheehan will cause turnovers to be much of a problem here though...buff doesn't have the personnel to run many zones or coverages that would effect him and his array of big play receivers. they wanna get the ball downfield and buffalo has the secondary that will let them. plus BOTH corners for buff are banged up...both expected to play but were questionable as late as yesterday if i'm not mistaken. sheehan has to be lickin his chops hearing this. and he has to be very confident after watching the temple film.

buff has had FIVE games go down to the last play and is 16 for 20 in 4th down conversions. pressure cookers, but let's see if that kind of stuff continues to play out in their favor, as they play the biggest game in school history on the road.

as if anyone on the bg sidelines needed more motivation:

FORMER COACH: BG's first-year quarterbacks coach Jim Hofher was the head coach at Buffalo from 2001-05 and is responsible for recruiting many of the team's upperclassmen. Hofher spent the past two seasons working as an analyst for ESPN.


GAME NOTES:

http://www.ubathletics.buffalo.edu/football/news/ftb-11-18-2008-notes.pdf

health once again aztec..and gl to all miami oh, sjsu, and bg backers.

:shake:
 
Conversely, the reason Bowling Green's pass defense looks so good is their complete inability to stop a rushing attack. Just look at how they fared vs their last five opponents...

@ Ohio --> 40
vs Kent --> 259
@ NIU --> 233
vs MiaOH --> 218
@ Akron --> 206
Click to expand...
if i were any of those teams, i'd run the ball too, cuz there QB's are pitiful, lol.

and turnovers are the #1 factor in an outcome of a game, but you can't tell me that just b/c bg's turnover margin is worse and buffalo's is better that it helps buffalo, those previous games this year mean nothing.

should be a great game. i got nothing on anything, but both these squads have put $$$$ in my pocket all year and i'm rootin for a 96-93 game in 18 overtimes.

gl fellas.
 
nropp11 said:
by the way joe,

did my love for bowling green this year wear off on you, lol
Click to expand...

apparently so, lol. had a sour taste in my mouth and a lot of bad things to say about them at the beginning of the year, but after the pitt win and the anomalies in that minny game i started looking at them a little different. then you had a great write-up i believe boise week which also caught my attention. i've actually played 8 of their games this year with a 6-2 record. think i have a good read on them and buff, but we'll see what happens here
 
nropp11 said:
if i were any of those teams, i'd run the ball too, cuz there QB's are pitiful, lol.

and turnovers are the #1 factor in an outcome of a game, but you can't tell me that just b/c bg's turnover margin is worse and buffalo's is better that it helps buffalo, those previous games this year mean nothing.

should be a great game. i got nothing on anything, but both these squads have put $$$$ in my pocket all year and i'm rootin for a 96-93 game in 18 overtimes.

gl fellas.
Click to expand...

I disagree man. How can you say that one team that finishes + in turnovers just about every single game is not a significant stat? It's not by chance, that much is obvious. If that stat isn't relevant, how is any stat in previous games not relevant?
 
well i think it would have a lot more relevance if you had a very turnover prone team (a sage rosenfels led team for instance) going up against the steadily solid turnover margin of buff...which bowling green doesn't fit. relevant..i'd say yes, but i wouldn't necessarily count on them to go on the road in a game like this and win the turnover battle here either.
 
Aztec4Life said:
I disagree man. How can you say that one team that finishes + in turnovers just about every single game is not a significant stat? It's not by chance, that much is obvious. If that stat isn't relevant, how is any stat in previous games not relevant?
Click to expand...

won the turnover margin and cmu and wmu and still lost, could be mistaken but prolly won the turnover battle versus pitt and mizzou too.

problem is, they should win the turnover battle w/ miami OH, akron, ohio, and army. Those teams have been handin the ball over all year.

Both teams are good. I honestly think it's a coinflip. Wouldn't surprise me to see either squad win, but in this case, i think buffalo is the hunted, and which ever team can establish the run game first will win, cuz neither team wants to come out and throw all night.

GL

p.s. i love mac football.
 
nropp11 said:
won the turnover margin and cmu and wmu and still lost, could be mistaken but prolly won the turnover battle versus pitt and mizzou too.

problem is, they should win the turnover battle w/ miami OH, akron, ohio, and army. Those teams have been handin the ball over all year.

Both teams are good. I honestly think it's a coinflip. Wouldn't surprise me to see either squad win, but in this case, i think buffalo is the hunted, and which ever team can establish the run game first will win, cuz neither team wants to come out and throw all night.

GL

p.s. i love mac football.
Click to expand...

Me too!

:shake:
 
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