MAC Championship - Friday Night Lights

booksbestfriend

On Johnny's Shitlist
Over the last few days there has been a buch of talk on the board, but not of the games being played throughout the week. I for one have done poorly on midweek games, so some input from some of the trust would be greatly appreciated.

This one is for all the marbles gentleman. Buffalo vs. Ball St.

Ball St. seems to be better in all statisical categories, but does it warrant over 2 TD'S. Where Nate Davis has gotten all the publicity, both QB's have very similar stats. We all know that Buff's back is a beast, but the tiny tailback for Ball St. has been very impressive this year as well.

I'll pose the question, where do you stand?
 
I'm on Buffalo +14.5

It's one thing to back the Bulls if they're the fave. But over a two TD dog? No hesitation on my part, especially against a fellow MAC opponent. I don't care that it's Ball St.
 
I've been betting the MAC like crazy this year and i feel like i have a great feel for this game.

Buffalo has played and struggled against an inferior division. they have gotten very lucky numerous times, but still, they have played bad teams. They will struggle on offense tonight vs a CAPABLE ball st. defense.

Buffalo has a TERRIBLE defense, in which ball st is going to put up over 50. I will truthfully be surprised if ball st. punts once.



I think this line is at 15 so people think its big enough to play the dog, but I see Ball st winning by 30+.



Ball St Big tonight. big big big
 
I've been betting the MAC like crazy this year and i feel like i have a great feel for this game.

Buffalo has played and struggled against an inferior division. they have gotten very lucky numerous times, but still, they have played bad teams. They will struggle on offense tonight vs a CAPABLE ball st. defense.

Buffalo has a TERRIBLE defense, in which ball st is going to put up over 50. I will truthfully be surprised if ball st. punts once.



I think this line is at 15 so people think its big enough to play the dog, but I see Ball st winning by 30+.



Ball St Big tonight. big big big

Wow...just wow. They still won the MAC East, and have one hell of an offense. I guess we'll find out later tonight.
 
also on buff. certainly the value play in this game. i don't see the bulls getting allot of stops here as they are by no means a defensive powerhouse, but i do think they will have success moving the ball and keeping the ball st offense off the field. i have not really seen anyone slow down starks and do not expect the cards to tonight. winning would be a long shot but think they keep it within the big number. certainly one i look forward to watching. had an initial lean to the over looking at the trends but they set this one pretty high and couldn't find any value after going through all the numbers. even looked at past mac championship games to see if there were any patterns to adjust for and still don't see anything. buff + for me.
 
Granted it's just one game but tough to get past the fact that Buffalo beat Army by all of 3 IN BUFFALO! My old school the University of New fucking Hampshire beat Army by more than that AT ARMY. This Buffalo squad for years has been the door-mat play against team of all college football. I'm not sold that in one year they turned it around & keep it at all close to a Ball St. team who's on a mission.
 
BTW husky...you conveniently seem to disregard Buffalo's much tougher non conference schedule. The Bulls have have struggled against inferior competition, but they still WON those games (with the exception of Kent last week).

The Bulls went toe to toe with Missouri (AT MIZZOU), and were only down 33-21 at the end of the 3rd Q.

They trailed PITT 16-17 AT PITT by the end of the 3rd Q.

Lost to Central Michigan by 2, and Western Michigan by 6.

So if anything, this Bulls team plays to the level of compeition. They find ways to beat the teams they should, and hang with the real tough opponents. They haven't been blown out ONCE the entire season, so saying they'll lose by 30+ is downright laughable IMO.

Bulls average margin of defeat in their 5 losses = 8.6 points.

Bulls average margin of victory in their 7 wins = 10.3 points.
 
I've been betting the MAC like crazy this year and i feel like i have a great feel for this game.

Buffalo has played and struggled against an inferior division. they have gotten very lucky numerous times, but still, they have played bad teams. They will struggle on offense tonight vs a CAPABLE ball st. defense.

Buffalo has a TERRIBLE defense, in which ball st is going to put up over 50. I will truthfully be surprised if ball st. punts once.



I think this line is at 15 so people think its big enough to play the dog, but I see Ball st winning by 30+.



Ball St Big tonight. big big big


they played a pretty similar schedule. buf are just not the type of team to blow folks out. their style (and lack of defense) leads to close games which actually plays in their favor tonight. really thought central should have beat ball state but the mac officiating crew kept it from happening (not saying intentionally). buf lost by 2 to central. ball can be beat. think people see them as invincible because they blow out bad teams.
 
and as much as a beast as starks is, which i agree he is, Lewis on Ball st. is a more productive back.. 5.7 avg compared to 5.1, 20 Tds compared to 14.

so throw that argument out
 
If Ball State had played Buffalo's non conference schedule this year, the Cardinals would have, at the very least, two losses.
 
Husky, I am on the over, but Starks would eat that little shit from:whip: Ball St.
 
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Ball St UNDER 31.5 (1st half)...........Being that this is a championship game, I expect maybe a little "feel you out" period. Both teams have legit ground games that as long as the game is close, they would be in full use by both teams. Maybe both teams come out a little conservative to begin, but with the half being over 31 points, that would mean that it would take a minimum of 5 first half scores if they were all TDs, more than likely it could be 6 or more in the 1st half to go over this number. Field goals are my friend in this 1st half.. I wouldn't feel comfortable on the whole game UNDER because of the possibility of a blowout/backdoor. I look for Buffalo to rely on the legs of James Starks to shorten this game and he is capable of it. Then you have BSU starting a little slower in the 1st half traditionally this season. I don't think Buffalo's gameplan if they intend to win is win a battle like 45-42 so I expect them to be conservative until they fall behind by 2 scores and the clock is no longer their friend, hopefully thats after the 1st half.
 
Buffalo has played and struggled against an inferior division

buffalo = kent state, bowling green, akron, miami OH, ohio, wmu, cmu, temple

ball state = wmu, cmu, miami OH, northern, emu, toledo, kent state, akron

uh, i'd actually have to give ball state the easier overall conference schedule w/ emu and toledo in there and having avoided bowling green.

but for purpose of discussion and my thoughts, if starks gets going then buffalo will hang, if he doesn't, willy will try to do too much.

no production from starks early, 43-10 Ball State

production from starks early, 36-31 Ball State

i couldn't get excited for the game. with all the hype of a possible 13-0 mac team and how exciting this game could be, i'm just not at all thrilled with it and prolly won't even watch it.
 
my main point is that they needed to really rally against bad teams.. ball st has crushed pretty much everyone
 
pretty cool tidbit

It's widely known that quarterback Nate Davis chose Ball State because the school had an academic plan to help with a learning disability that impairs his memory. But what isn't widely known, what Davis now laughs about, is that that learning disability kept one of the nation's best quarterbacks from knowing his playbook until the middle of his sophomore season.

"I have a hard time comprehending things that are long in a short period of time, so I have to go over things a couple more times than I'd normally have to," Davis said of his disability. "But the thing with football is, if it's something that I love to do, it's a lot easier for me. Something about history or something like that, it takes me a lot longer."
Davis won't have any trouble with the plays as the Cardinals look to continue their undefeated campaign tonight in the Mid-American Conference championship against Buffalo at Ford Field in Detroit.
Davis' play now is a far cry from his freshman and sophomore seasons in which he has said his playbook was about throwing to the open man. He didn't recognize routes or the names of plays. He took whatever signal was given to him, relayed it to the team and then threw whatever felt comfortable.
Davis said most of the players that were in his class knew their playbooks front-to-back within a year while he was still struggling to learn the basics.
"It was really frustrating," Davis said. "My freshman year I just went in and I was pretty much playing backyard football. Me and [offensive coordinator] coach [Stan] Parish worked very hard to learn the playbook, and now I know it."
Amazingly, Davis still put up numbers that rivaled most of the MAC quarterbacks and some of the better quarterbacks in the country. During his freshman season in 2006, Davis completed 61 percent of his passes for 1,975 yards, 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His sophomore year, those numbers jumped to 3,667 yards, 30 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
And now, on the cusp of what could be his final MAC game if he decides to leave early for the NFL, Davis has thrown for 3,095 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.
"It's a lot easier now," Davis said. "It's all about timing and once you know where a guy is supposed to be, it's a lot easier."
 
by the way, ball state choosing not to go to boise pretty much screwed the MAC as far as bowl games go, thinkin they went from sending 4 teams to only sendin 3.
 
Had to go with Buffalo. People talking the Teste defense, I keep remembering that game vs. MiamiO and that shit team stayed in the number by driving on them.

GL

Press
 
buffalo = kent state, bowling green, akron, miami OH, ohio, wmu, cmu, temple

ball state = wmu, cmu, miami OH, northern, emu, toledo, kent state, akron

uh, i'd actually have to give ball state the easier overall conference schedule w/ emu and toledo in there and having avoided bowling green.

but for purpose of discussion and my thoughts, if starks gets going then buffalo will hang, if he doesn't, willy will try to do too much.

no production from starks early, 43-10 Ball State

production from starks early, 36-31 Ball State

i couldn't get excited for the game. with all the hype of a possible 13-0 mac team and how exciting this game could be, i'm just not at all thrilled with it and prolly won't even watch it.

i agree....from what i've seen from ball state's defense this year and last year, i see no way in hell they are even going to contain buffalo's rushing game. i'm lookin forward to this one...i think we'll see a very good game with a shot of the upset
 
Now this is more like the forum I have loved for years. Thanks for the input. I still have not made a decision on a side, but leaning over. I have it in the back of my mind to open two 6pt. teases. One on each. I'll close them on something later. Just have to have my fix.
 
Rolled with Buffalo {Level 2 }......do think the RB's are the keys and Ball State will solid still play a soft schedule and didnt impress on the road . At home different story . Plus wonder how backing out of the Humantarian Bowl plays into the game . When your AD basically says we couldnt do that to our kids not exactly comfidence boosting ....Think we know who is Buffalo is the question is who is Ball State ?
 
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