M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 Preview Article

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M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: M&M's Fan Appreciation 400
Sunday, July 24, 2022 at 3 p.m. ET (USA) at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond Pennsylvania

Last Week's Race

For the second race in a row, Chase Elliott finished at or near the front.

After winning two weeks ago in Atlanta, he did just about as well as anyone could have expected him last week by finishing second at the Ambetter 301 in New Hampshire.

It is really hard to blame him for failing to win back-to-back races.

His consistency over the past four races must already be considered remarkable.

On June 26, he won at Nashville. Then, he finished second at Road America.

In his past two races, he won at Atlanta and finished second in New Hampshire.

This consistency has injected continuity atop the current playoff standings: Elliott still leads.

Currently, he has 734 points while second place, Ross Chastain, has 667.

Focusing on last week's race, Christopher Bell deserves some love.

Bell won at New Hampshire, and did so in convincing fashion.

As great as Elliott has been, Bell beat him by over five seconds.

Moreover, Bell was the leader for each of the final 42 laps of last week's race.

Because it is difficult and rare to win back-to-back NASCAR Cup Series races, we may exclude Bell from our list of candidates to win this week's upcoming race.

Race Info

On Sunday, the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 will take place at Pocono Raceway, newly the only race this year that will take place at well-known Long Pond, Pennsylvania.

For this race, drivers must complete a total of 160 laps.

As has almost always been the case, there will be three stages for this race.

Stage 1 will consist in the first 30 laps.

For Stage 2, drivers must complete 65 more laps.

The final 65 maps make up Stage 3.

Entry List

As is usually the case, the entry list for this week's upcoming race has already been published.

36 teams/drivers out of 40 possible spots are posted on this list.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will participate in this event.

We may expect all of the usual suspects.

Starting Lineup

As for the starting lineup, that gets determined via qualifying.

Qualifying will take place on Saturday, the day before the race.

It will start at 3:20 p.m. ET and end 70 minutes later.

In terms of format, qualifying will be two-group, single-vehicle, one lap, and two rounds.

A practice session will directly precede qualifying.

To be exact, practice will take place on Saturday at 2:35 p.m. ET to 3;20 p.m. ET, and it will be two groups.

Track Info

The Pocono Raceway at Long Pond, Pennsylvania is already well-known to NASCAR drivers.

In recent history, this track has grown notorious for the difficulty that drivers have with passing each other.

This lack of passing, and the accompanying lack of gear-shifting, may explain why NASCSR is less interested in hosting races at the Pocono Raceway.

If this asphalt-surface track seems unusually unexciting to you, then you are mistaken.

This is actually a really cool track, cool because its layout is unique.

It is not your usual oval. Instead, Pocono has a triangle layout.

This raceway's three turns all differ from each other, creating a unique level of variety that makes up for the monotony that a lack of passing and gear-shifting may engender.

Turn 1 is banked at 14 degrees. Turn 2 is banked at eight degrees.

Turn 3 has six degrees of banking.

Each lap consists in 2.5 miles.

So, in completing 160 laps, drivers will have amassed 400 miles.

My Favorite Bet

Bovada offers enticing match-up betting opportunities for this race.

My favorite bet is Brad Keselowski to finish ahead of Austin Dillon.

Dillon is utterly worth fading at Pocono.

In 16 tries at Pocono, he has finished better than 13th one time.

He finished 12th in that one exception.

Keselowski, however, has finished 11th or better in each of his last six races here.

His current season form is also better than Dillon's.

Whereas Dillon has failed to finish top-10 in each of his last seven NASCAR Cup Series races, Keselowski is coming off a seventh-place finish.

For the above reasons, bet on Keselowski to finish ahead of Dillon.

Best Bet: Keselowski Ahead of Dillon at -130 with Bovada
 
Xfinity bets:

1 unit:
Gibbs -125 over Custer (BAS)

0.5 units:
Brandon Jones -130 over Hemric (BAS)
Brandon Jones -130 over Austin Hill (BAS)
 
It will be hard to pass tomorrow so track position and starting position will be important.

Chastain had one of the fastest cars in practice but he spun as practice ended but did not hit anything. He did something to his car because he was not good on his qualifying lap. They are making changes/repairs and he will start from the back of the field. If his odds improve because of this I may still bet on him.

Trackhouse was great in practice, so don't bet against them.

Byron spun in practice and will go to the back of the field.

The Toyota cars were good in practice and qualifying, especially Kurt and Kyle Busch and Hamlin. Kurt Busch spun and wrecked in qualifying and will go to the back of the field after repairs.

SHR was bad and practice and qualifying, except Almirola. I am gonna face Harvick and Custer. Briscoe looked so-so. There is a lot of pressure on Harvick this week to win. His car does not look good. It will be tough to pass.
 
I am heavy on Bell and faded Harvick:

2 units:

Bell (-105 & -120) over Logano (Bovada & BAS)

1 unit:

Logano -130 over Byron in Stage 1 (Byron is starting from the rear) (Bovada)
Bell -115 over Byron (BAS)
Bell +100 over Blaney (BAS)
Bell -135 over Harvick (BAS)
Bowman -115 over Harvick (BAS)
Suarez +105 over Bubba (BAS)

Considering:
Kurt Busch -115 over Harvick (BAS)
I also may add to the above if the lines move
 
I am heavy on Bell and faded Harvick:

2 units:

Bell (-105 & -120) over Logano (Bovada & BAS)

1 unit:

Logano -130 over Byron in Stage 1 (Byron is starting from the rear) (Bovada)
Bell -115 over Byron (BAS)
Bell +100 over Blaney (BAS)
Bell -135 over Harvick (BAS)
Bowman -115 over Harvick (BAS)
Suarez +105 over Bubba (BAS)

Considering:
Kurt Busch -115 over Harvick (BAS)
I also may add to the above if the lines move
I added:

Suarez +124 over Bubba (BM). I now have 2 units on this.

Kurt Busch is out of the race due to a concussion, so no bet against Harvick
 
Damn, Hamlin and Kyle Busch have been disqualified after post-race inspections so 4rd place Chase Elliott is the winner.
 
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