Lyon/Basel/St.Petersburg/Linz

[gpcyan3]

Last Week: 7-7 +1.25u
YTD: 87-73-10 +13.79u

Another 50/50 week but positive profit.

Just getting the thread up and running for the week.

I really think Lyon is gonna have some great matches... Not too sure about the other's but value can be found everywhere.

Let's get another positive week.

rayer

 

[gpcyan3]

Just 1 play for today so far.

Lines are not up yet for most matches and I have other things to take care of today/tomorrow.

Might post some more later in the day.

Parlay Robredo/Tsongo (2u to win 1.8u)

Tsongo with a big serve indoors on carpet in his home country against a player who struggles with big service men. Robredo having a horrible showing at Madrid needs to pick up some wins to qualify for the Masters.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck

 

[Das Kapital]

Just went you think Robredo's on fire, he typically lets you down. After winning a first set breaker over del Potro, he crumbled on serve and made too many unforced errors as the flashy young Argentine got the better of him in a 3 set thriller. Gicquel had no asnwers for the big Croat Ancic, who had no trouble on serve, and took advantage of a low first serve percentage from the Frenchman to often put him out of position from the return of serve. Gicquel's best results have been on clay, and I'm not convinced he's as good as his ranking of even 77. Robredo will have too many answers providing he doesn't hand it to Gicquel on a plate.

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks for the insight Das Kapital. Looks like Robredo did hand the match to Marc on a plate. Not a good way to start the week but I should have known better to back Robredo against someone who's game clearly favors IHC.

 

[gpcyan3]

So... this should be a fun day for me. I don't have much going on so I will be watching and enjoying tennis for hours on end and will be playing a crazy amount of matches and do not advise anyone to ride. Feel bad to be an action junkie here but I really feel like I can make a decent profit today if things go well. So w/o further ado, I will post the plays I would normally play if I had things going on and then the plays I am making because I have nothing else to do. Rainshowers are great sometimes ^_^

Also won't be doing any writeups but if anyone wants to ask or comment, would definitely be down to converse about my thoughts on the matches.

Normal Plays:

Roger Federer to win Davidoff Swiss Indoors Basel -250 (2.5u to win 1u)
Chela over Koubek -131 (1.31u to win 1u)
Molik over Radwanska +260 (1u to win 2.6u)
Kirilenko over Vakulenko -180 (1.8u to win 1u)
Tipsarevic over Ascione -212 (2.12u to win 1u)
Ginepri over Nieminen +103 (1u to win 1.03u)
Parlay Karlovic/Bammer (2u to win .96u)

(Action) Plays:

Gimelstob over Youzhny +450 (1u to win 4.5u)
Becker over Clement +182 (1u to win 1.82u)
Querrey over CarpetGodIvan +255 (1u to win 2.55u)
Karanusic over Reister -151 (1.51u to win 1u)
Calleri over Ferrer +273 (1u to win 2.73u)
Dancevic over Mathieu +260 (1u to win 2.6u)
Krajicek over Knapp -165 (1.65u to win 1u)
Schiavone over Srebotnik -132 (1.32u to win 1u)
Pavel over Simon +111 (1u to win 1.11u)

Don't recommend this course of action, but I've had a decent amount of time today to break things down and I hope to have a smashing day.

and hey... - It's the carpet season... anything can happen ^_^

 

[Das Kapital]

I like Chela, Tips and Robby to get Ws tomorrow.

I don't mess with WTA unless its really necessary.

I think St. Petersburg is shaping up to be a complete trainwreck tourney imo. I'm not to interested it any of those matches.

I will say that if Ferrer loses in the 1st round I'll be extremely surprised. And PHM should shitcan the Canuck but who knows.Good luck with the dogs. Although its pretty apparent by his recent form that Youzhny is trash and there is no reason he should be favored by that amount. -500? jesus thats absurd. But Justin Gimelstob has been almost as bad losing 7 out of 8 and looks to be attempting retirement by going out with a whimper. (Given that he'll most likely cruise now but fuck him anyways)

 

[gpcyan3]

Well it was a fun day yesterday. Lots of great matches and even tho my betting didn't quite go as I wanted (-4u), it was not too bad of a day. Lots of close matches and things could have easily went the other way. (Kiri forgetting how to serve, Hammer running out of gas 6-0 in the third, Jarrko actually playing well, Robbie up 5-1 in the third and chokes away 6 straight games...)

Anyways, pretty clear to me that I'm lacking the ability to pick winners on carpet so I'm gonna scale my bets back to normal and go from there to try to salvage another positive week.

Just 2 plays today.

Del Potro over Russell -325 (3.25u to win 1u)
Schiavone over Chakvetadze +175 (2u to win 3.5u)

Something is wrong with Chakvetadze I think. Russell sucks on carpet.

 

[gpcyan3]

Gonna add one more before the matches arrive.

O.Rochus over Llodra -220 (2.2u to win 1u)

 

[Das Kapital]

Russell is such a bitch! Stupid quitter couldn't get through 1 set before he threw in the towel? ugh

good call with Rochus

 

[Das Kapital]

I don't think anythings wrong with Chakvetadze after that last match.

1-1-1 isn't bad though

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks Das Kapital. I guess Chakvetadze fixed her *match fitness* problem but I think it was more of Schiavone choking than and brillent match by Anna. Schiavone with 0 DFs and 10 Aces in her previous match ends up with something like 14DFs in the match against Anna. She basically served it to Anna on a plate.

Anyways, dropped another 1u yesterday but still trying to stop the bleeding as I'm down a whopping 7u! this week...ugh...

Anyways today I'm on a couple...

Potito Starace over Mikhail Ledovskikh -161 (1.61u to win 1u)
Guillermo Canas over Jarkko Nieminen -200 (2u to win 1u)
Marcos Baghdatis over Agustin Calleri -170 (1.7u to win 1u)
Parlay Davydenko/Murray/Federer/PHM/Vaidisova (1u to win .66u)

Hope to at least have a positive day here... Tempted to take a couple dogs but they have not been biting this week so I will stay away.

 

[Das Kapital]

good luck and fuck roddick

 

[gpcyan3]

Another negative day, dropping 1u again. Davytank ruins my parlay.

Gonna try for a couple bigger plays today to catch back up this week.

Parlay Verdasco/Tsongo (2.5u to win 2.06u)
Gulbis over Cilic -195 (3.9u to win 2u)

Let's hope these cash to get back on track this week!

 

[t-dot]

Gl, bro.

 

[gpcyan3]

Horrible week, but it happens sometimes. Seems I can't buy a winner this week.

Anyways, for what it's worth, here's what I'm on for the semis.

Murray over Youzhny -195 (1.95u to win 1u)

I don't care about Youzhny's home court and him doing well, etc. He is a tool and Andy served horrid yesterday and still won. I'll take my chances with the more talented individual.

Falla over Gicquel +160 (1u to win 1.6u)

Falla crusing and Gicquel is nothing special. Worth a shot even tho odds are relatively lower than what I would like.

Tsonga over Grosjean -210 (2.1u to win 1u)

Again... Tsonga has a great serve and is on fire here in carpetland. Grosjean has played some long matches this week. Expecting him to give up after he gets a couple looks at Tsonga's serve.

Schnyder over Bartoli -150 (1.5u to win 1u)

Could go either way but I'll go with the lady who leads the h2h. Both love this surface and will try to hit each other off the court. Patty easily took care of Chakvetadze who I should have continued to fade as her fitness is not there but of course I don't last round lol.

Anyways, whomever reads this should probably fade me. I've been a golden touch for fading this week.

 

[Das Kapital]

I have/had Tsonga too. What a fucking bitch this pussy is. 1-6 in the 1st set? fuck this guy