LSU vs. Texas A&M NCAAF Week 13 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Misleading Stat: LSU’s Run Defense
Currently, LSU’s run defense ranks 39th nationally in allowing 136.8 rushing yards per game.
In order to understand that LSU’s run defense is actually far worse than this statistic suggests, you need to consider who the Tigers’ opponents have been.
LSU has played Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, and Missouri. All three teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing yards per game.
Likewise, the Tigers faced Arkansas, which ranks 81st in rushing yards per game.
In that game, Arkansas’ top running back did not dress. So the Hogs’ starting quarterback was actually the team’s leading rusher, even though he is not typically one to average high amounts of YPC.
The point is that these four teams are really easy for even a poor run defense, such that a poor run defense like LSU’s can still show good run defense statistics after facing them.
But when LSU faced South Carolina, the latter's starting running back accrued 126 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Auburn proved even tougher, as it amassed 206 rushing yards on 44 carries.
Unlike South Carolina or Auburn, Texas A&M ranks top-50 nationally in rushing yards per game.
So the Aggies will form the toughest ground game that LSU has faced yet.
Texas A&M Offense vs. LSU Defense
Under Jimbo Fisher, the Aggie ground game components are big, mean, and physical.
They are led by 225-pounder Isaiah Spiller whose size helps make him difficult for defenders to bring down.
He’s a patient runner who complements his physicality with the ability to wait for lanes to open up and to burst through them.
For these reasons, he’s averaging 6.2 YPC. Spiller will also catch the occasional pass out of the backfield.
However, receiving is rather characteristic of fellow running back Ainias Smith who caught a season-high six passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns at Alabama. He also caught six for 67 and a touchdown against Arkansas.
Both South Carolina and Auburn succeeded against the LSU run defense. But only Auburn won and covered the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers. South Carolina lost 52-24 whereas Auburn won 48-11.
One significant difference between both teams was quarterback play. Auburn quarterback Bo Nix passed for 300 yards and three touchdowns whereas South Carolina’s Collin Hill was much less efficient, less productive, and threw an interception.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond will pose a tougher test for the Tiger secondary. Mond ranks fifth in the SEC in passer rating. In contrast, Nix ranks ninth and Hill ranks 15th in the category.
Completing 64.3 percent of his passes, Mond is an accurate passer. He’s comfortable in the pocket. But he’ll also showcase the athleticism and mobile capacity necessary to make plays happen on the run.
Against an LSU pass defense that has been porous and impuissant throughout the season — the Tigers rank 122nd in opposing passer rating — Mond will play even better than Nix did.
LSU Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Another difference between South Carolina and Auburn is that the Gamecock defense failed to halt LSU’s ground game.
Now, LSU normally hasn’t done much on the ground. The Tigers rank 99th in rushing yards per game.
But the Tigers repeatedly gashed the Gamecock run defense en route to their 52-24 victory. South Carolina’s run defense, though, ranks in the bottom half nationally.
Unlike the Gamecocks, the Aggies have a solid run defense, which ranks 12th nationally in opposing YPC.
The Texas A&M run defense is also well-tested. For example, it held an Alabama ground game that routinely exceeds 200 yards to 109 yards on 3.9 YPC.
Run support is crucial for Tiger quarterback TJ Finley. In his one awful performance — which came in the blowout loss to Auburn — his ground game did not support him.
Finley is not equipped to carry an offense by himself. So he is going to struggle when his offense is not balanced.
Moreover, Finley has benefitted in his good games from positive pass protection, which allows him ample time to make decisions and throw.
But the Aggie pass rush will be the toughest he’s faced. Texas A&M ranks 36th nationally in sack percentage.
The Aggies are able to rely on a variety of players to bother the opposing quarterback. Finley will be plagued in every direction.
The Verdict
Texas A&M has the tools to improve upon the 48-11 score that Auburn achieved in its blowout win against LSU.
With a powerful run game, an effective quarterback, a suffocating run defense, overall physicality, and a varied pass rush, the Aggies will win in blowout fashion.
I don’t expect the Aggies to let up. LSU did not, last year, when LSU beat Texas A&M 50-7. While the players and coaches that made LSU great (or even good), are gone, the memory of that game is not gone.
So on top of match-up-induced domination, expect to see a vengeful mindset in Aggie players.
Best Bet: Aggies -14.5 at -108 with Heritage
LSU Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Misleading Stat: LSU’s Run Defense
Currently, LSU’s run defense ranks 39th nationally in allowing 136.8 rushing yards per game.
In order to understand that LSU’s run defense is actually far worse than this statistic suggests, you need to consider who the Tigers’ opponents have been.
LSU has played Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, and Missouri. All three teams rank outside the top 100 in rushing yards per game.
Likewise, the Tigers faced Arkansas, which ranks 81st in rushing yards per game.
In that game, Arkansas’ top running back did not dress. So the Hogs’ starting quarterback was actually the team’s leading rusher, even though he is not typically one to average high amounts of YPC.
The point is that these four teams are really easy for even a poor run defense, such that a poor run defense like LSU’s can still show good run defense statistics after facing them.
But when LSU faced South Carolina, the latter's starting running back accrued 126 rushing yards on 12 carries.
Auburn proved even tougher, as it amassed 206 rushing yards on 44 carries.
Unlike South Carolina or Auburn, Texas A&M ranks top-50 nationally in rushing yards per game.
So the Aggies will form the toughest ground game that LSU has faced yet.
Texas A&M Offense vs. LSU Defense
Under Jimbo Fisher, the Aggie ground game components are big, mean, and physical.
They are led by 225-pounder Isaiah Spiller whose size helps make him difficult for defenders to bring down.
He’s a patient runner who complements his physicality with the ability to wait for lanes to open up and to burst through them.
For these reasons, he’s averaging 6.2 YPC. Spiller will also catch the occasional pass out of the backfield.
However, receiving is rather characteristic of fellow running back Ainias Smith who caught a season-high six passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns at Alabama. He also caught six for 67 and a touchdown against Arkansas.
Both South Carolina and Auburn succeeded against the LSU run defense. But only Auburn won and covered the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers. South Carolina lost 52-24 whereas Auburn won 48-11.
One significant difference between both teams was quarterback play. Auburn quarterback Bo Nix passed for 300 yards and three touchdowns whereas South Carolina’s Collin Hill was much less efficient, less productive, and threw an interception.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond will pose a tougher test for the Tiger secondary. Mond ranks fifth in the SEC in passer rating. In contrast, Nix ranks ninth and Hill ranks 15th in the category.
Completing 64.3 percent of his passes, Mond is an accurate passer. He’s comfortable in the pocket. But he’ll also showcase the athleticism and mobile capacity necessary to make plays happen on the run.
Against an LSU pass defense that has been porous and impuissant throughout the season — the Tigers rank 122nd in opposing passer rating — Mond will play even better than Nix did.
LSU Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
Another difference between South Carolina and Auburn is that the Gamecock defense failed to halt LSU’s ground game.
Now, LSU normally hasn’t done much on the ground. The Tigers rank 99th in rushing yards per game.
But the Tigers repeatedly gashed the Gamecock run defense en route to their 52-24 victory. South Carolina’s run defense, though, ranks in the bottom half nationally.
Unlike the Gamecocks, the Aggies have a solid run defense, which ranks 12th nationally in opposing YPC.
The Texas A&M run defense is also well-tested. For example, it held an Alabama ground game that routinely exceeds 200 yards to 109 yards on 3.9 YPC.
Run support is crucial for Tiger quarterback TJ Finley. In his one awful performance — which came in the blowout loss to Auburn — his ground game did not support him.
Finley is not equipped to carry an offense by himself. So he is going to struggle when his offense is not balanced.
Moreover, Finley has benefitted in his good games from positive pass protection, which allows him ample time to make decisions and throw.
But the Aggie pass rush will be the toughest he’s faced. Texas A&M ranks 36th nationally in sack percentage.
The Aggies are able to rely on a variety of players to bother the opposing quarterback. Finley will be plagued in every direction.
The Verdict
Texas A&M has the tools to improve upon the 48-11 score that Auburn achieved in its blowout win against LSU.
With a powerful run game, an effective quarterback, a suffocating run defense, overall physicality, and a varied pass rush, the Aggies will win in blowout fashion.
I don’t expect the Aggies to let up. LSU did not, last year, when LSU beat Texas A&M 50-7. While the players and coaches that made LSU great (or even good), are gone, the memory of that game is not gone.
So on top of match-up-induced domination, expect to see a vengeful mindset in Aggie players.
Best Bet: Aggies -14.5 at -108 with Heritage
