Texas A&M vs LSU: College Football Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Texas A&M vs LSU
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Tiger Stadium
Odds And Meaningless Trends
Oddsmakers opened LSU as 15.5-point favorites and Tiger love has moved the spread up to 17 points.
A couple of meaningless trends are circulating in support of a play on LSU.
One is Texas A&M’s most recent history in Baton Rouge where the Aggies lost by 24 in 2017, by 12 in 2015, and by 24 in 2013.
A second is LSU’s 8-0 ATS run against Texas A&M.
Throw these trends out the window because both are meaningless with new faces on both teams.
In particular, Jimbo Fisher was not Texas A&M’s head coach in 2017.
I think Fisher is the man to reverse the Aggies' poor history in Baton Rouge because of his robust road resume at Florida State.
In 2017, the Fisher-led Seminoles tripled the spread at rival Florida. In 2016, they pulled out an upset at rival Miami. The list goes on.
Texas A&M’s Defensive Resume
Perhaps no other team in America is more well-tested than the Aggies. They faced three of the top five offenses in the SEC.
Against Alabama, they surrendered 448 yards, which is 48 yards fewer than Alabama’s per-game average against SEC opponents.
They held Auburn to 296 yards, although Auburn averages 394 versus SEC opponents, and they held Ole Miss to 405 yards, although the Rebels average 456 against SEC opponents.
In terms of advanced metrics, the Aggies rank 25th nationally in FEI, which measures a defense’s per-possession expected scoring advantage facing an average offense on neutral territory.
Obviously, the counter will be that LSU’s offense is elite and special. But so is Alabama’s. And i’m not counting the Clemson game since Clemson was mired in an early-season funk.
All we need from the Aggies is an above-average defensive performance to keep LSU from scoring too many points and their resume leads us to expect just that.
Control The Clock
There’s an adage that a great offense serves as a great defense. Texas A&M will want to control the clock in order to keep the ball away from LSU’s offense and to deter LSU from finding an offensive rhythm.
Facing SEC opponents, LSU ranks outside the top-70 in terms of rush yards allowed per game and opposing YPC.
The Tigers’ rush defense thus seems most comparable to that of South Carolina and Mississippi State, which rank similarly in both categories against SEC teams i.e. with a very comparable schedule.
Texas A&M accrued 319 rush yards on 6.9 YPC against South Carolina and 207 rush yards on 5.3 YPC against Mississippi State.
While doubt hung over the Aggies with the departure of star Trayveon Williams, the offensive line is one of the better ones at opening up holes for its ball-carriers who enjoy big-play capabilities.
Isaiah Spiller has made an instant impact as the new leader of his team’s backfield. He averages 5.6 YPC on the season and reliably amasses chunk plays against SEC opponents.
Teammate Cordarrian Richardson is known for his size and strength, but achieved a 75-yard run against the Gamecocks.
Kellen Mond
LSU’s pass defense has proven vulnerable whenever it’s been tested.
The Tigers allowed over 300 yards and three touchdowns against Florida’s Kyle Trask, and over 400 yards and four touchdowns both to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Texas’ Sam Ehlinger.
All three quarterbacks were fundamental to high scoring outputs from their respective team with Alabama eclipsing 40 points, Texas scoring 35, and Florida remaining yards away from reaching 35.
Those are the only three meaningful passing threats that LSU has faced this year and Texas A&M will be the fourth.
Mond ranks comparatively to Trask. The latter benefits from an offensive system more suited to him and a deeper wide receiver crew. But Mond is the more able and proven playmaker individually.
He’s always been one of the nation’s best quarterbacks outside of the pocket where he throws with superb accuracy to all levels of the field. While he’s also a threat to run, he’s still effective as a pocket passer as attested by his efficiency.
Conclusion
Establishing the run is fundamental to what Jimbo Fisher wants to do as it’s always a prerogative that he sets forth at the start of games.
Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS against SEC opponents when Spiller averages over four YPC. LSU is just the sort of defense that the Aggies can be lethal against with their rush attack.
As one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, the dual-threat Mond’s playmaking ability will serve the Tigers one of their toughest tests.
On the other side, Texas A&M’s well-tested defense will keep the Tigers below their average outputs such that they don’t run away with this game. Expect, at worst, the Aggies to stay within a touchdown.
Best Bet: Aggies +17.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
Texas A&M vs LSU
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Tiger Stadium
Odds And Meaningless Trends
Oddsmakers opened LSU as 15.5-point favorites and Tiger love has moved the spread up to 17 points.
A couple of meaningless trends are circulating in support of a play on LSU.
One is Texas A&M’s most recent history in Baton Rouge where the Aggies lost by 24 in 2017, by 12 in 2015, and by 24 in 2013.
A second is LSU’s 8-0 ATS run against Texas A&M.
Throw these trends out the window because both are meaningless with new faces on both teams.
In particular, Jimbo Fisher was not Texas A&M’s head coach in 2017.
I think Fisher is the man to reverse the Aggies' poor history in Baton Rouge because of his robust road resume at Florida State.
In 2017, the Fisher-led Seminoles tripled the spread at rival Florida. In 2016, they pulled out an upset at rival Miami. The list goes on.
Texas A&M’s Defensive Resume
Perhaps no other team in America is more well-tested than the Aggies. They faced three of the top five offenses in the SEC.
Against Alabama, they surrendered 448 yards, which is 48 yards fewer than Alabama’s per-game average against SEC opponents.
They held Auburn to 296 yards, although Auburn averages 394 versus SEC opponents, and they held Ole Miss to 405 yards, although the Rebels average 456 against SEC opponents.
In terms of advanced metrics, the Aggies rank 25th nationally in FEI, which measures a defense’s per-possession expected scoring advantage facing an average offense on neutral territory.
Obviously, the counter will be that LSU’s offense is elite and special. But so is Alabama’s. And i’m not counting the Clemson game since Clemson was mired in an early-season funk.
All we need from the Aggies is an above-average defensive performance to keep LSU from scoring too many points and their resume leads us to expect just that.
Control The Clock
There’s an adage that a great offense serves as a great defense. Texas A&M will want to control the clock in order to keep the ball away from LSU’s offense and to deter LSU from finding an offensive rhythm.
Facing SEC opponents, LSU ranks outside the top-70 in terms of rush yards allowed per game and opposing YPC.
The Tigers’ rush defense thus seems most comparable to that of South Carolina and Mississippi State, which rank similarly in both categories against SEC teams i.e. with a very comparable schedule.
Texas A&M accrued 319 rush yards on 6.9 YPC against South Carolina and 207 rush yards on 5.3 YPC against Mississippi State.
While doubt hung over the Aggies with the departure of star Trayveon Williams, the offensive line is one of the better ones at opening up holes for its ball-carriers who enjoy big-play capabilities.
Isaiah Spiller has made an instant impact as the new leader of his team’s backfield. He averages 5.6 YPC on the season and reliably amasses chunk plays against SEC opponents.
Teammate Cordarrian Richardson is known for his size and strength, but achieved a 75-yard run against the Gamecocks.
Kellen Mond
LSU’s pass defense has proven vulnerable whenever it’s been tested.
The Tigers allowed over 300 yards and three touchdowns against Florida’s Kyle Trask, and over 400 yards and four touchdowns both to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Texas’ Sam Ehlinger.
All three quarterbacks were fundamental to high scoring outputs from their respective team with Alabama eclipsing 40 points, Texas scoring 35, and Florida remaining yards away from reaching 35.
Those are the only three meaningful passing threats that LSU has faced this year and Texas A&M will be the fourth.
Mond ranks comparatively to Trask. The latter benefits from an offensive system more suited to him and a deeper wide receiver crew. But Mond is the more able and proven playmaker individually.
He’s always been one of the nation’s best quarterbacks outside of the pocket where he throws with superb accuracy to all levels of the field. While he’s also a threat to run, he’s still effective as a pocket passer as attested by his efficiency.
Conclusion
Establishing the run is fundamental to what Jimbo Fisher wants to do as it’s always a prerogative that he sets forth at the start of games.
Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS against SEC opponents when Spiller averages over four YPC. LSU is just the sort of defense that the Aggies can be lethal against with their rush attack.
As one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, the dual-threat Mond’s playmaking ability will serve the Tigers one of their toughest tests.
On the other side, Texas A&M’s well-tested defense will keep the Tigers below their average outputs such that they don’t run away with this game. Expect, at worst, the Aggies to stay within a touchdown.
Best Bet: Aggies +17.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
