Georgia vs LSU: NCAAF Week 15 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Georgia vs LSU
Saturday, December 7 at 4 p.m. ET (CBS) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Georgia Injuries: Running Back
The most critical piece of injury news surrounds D’Andre Swift as he should be fundamental to Georgia’s game plan — to keep LSU’s offense off the field by grinding out long drives.
Swift sustained a shoulder injury in the third quarter of last Saturday’s game and did not return. His status and fitness for the LSU game are not clear.
Currently, he’s averaging 6.2 YPC with his ability to consistently beat defenders in so many ways — with a nice juke move combined with patience in allowing his blockers to set-up, by hurdling, by using his strength to break tackles, and so on.
Georgia Injuries: Wide Receiver
Lawrence Cager will not play in this game due to an ankle injury.
He’s a well-sized playmaker with an amazing catch radius. Georgia doesn’t have another receiver like him.
Only because he’s played in more games than Cager, George Pickens is the team’s leading wide receiver. He’s suspended for the first half of this game.
The Impact of Losing Cager And Pickens
As was especially evident in Georgia’s 20-17 double-overtime loss to South Carolina, Georgia wide receivers struggle to gain separation, which makes it extremely hard for Jake Fromm to hit them.
Cager and Pickens are irreplaceable. In the first half, Georgia’s active leading receiver will be Dominick Blaylock, who has caught 17 passes for 299 yards, which is 177 fewer yards than Cager.
Should We Worry About LSU’s Defense?
Defensively, LSU was always going to look worse than it is. The Tigers’ offense plays at such a breakneck pace that the defense has to be out on the field longer.
Plus, the Tigers will get a big lead and then the defense will slacken. For this reason, LSU ranks 74th in allowing 14 second-half points per game.
Conversely, LSU ranks 10th in allowing 8.8 first-half points per game.
Super motivated last week, the Tigers played strong defense in all four quarters last Saturday against Texas A&M, holding it to seven points and 169 total yards.
LSU Rush Defense
Complacency is not just an excuse. LSU’s run defense has only looked truly vulnerable when the game was decided or in rare moments.
Ole Miss, for example, amassed 402 yards, but was down 31-7 at halftime. Auburn’s D.J. Williams had his best game of the season, but did very little outside of one run.
Vanderbilt accrued 145 yards in a game that it never had a chance in.
When LSU showed up in its last game, it held Isaiah Spiller to one of his lowest rush totals.
Although Florida ran over 80 plays, Lamical Perine accrued .7 YPC fewer than his season average.
Mississippi State’s Kylin Hill is the other most able non-Alabama running back that LSU has faced and he mustered only 34 yards on 3.4 YPC fewer than his season average.
The point is that LSU’s run defense can hold its own when it wants to. Even if Swift is somehow totally healthy, I foresee him helping Georgia to sustain some drives and run the clock. But he isn’t going to repeatedly gash LSU’s defense.
LSU’s Pass Defense
Georgia’s inability to dominate on the ground is crucial because of the lack of pass-catching talent available to Jake Fromm.
The Bulldogs’ best remaining receiver will contend with Derek Stingley Jr., PFF's highest-graded SEC corner who yields a 23 percent completion rate and 62.4 passer rating when targeted.
Bulldog receivers already struggle to gain separation and Kristian Fulton, PFF’s third-highest graded SEC corner, won’t help him as he is a ballhawk who excels in press coverage.
Overall, thanks to Fulton, Stingley, and others, LSU ranks 15th in opposing passer rating.
Georgia Rush Defense vs LSU’s Rush Offense
The Bulldogs rank second overall in allowing 9.8 points per game and its run defense is a major reason why.
On a weekly basis, they are able to out-physical opponents. Besides, their front seven is deep and they're disciplined in terms of tackling and maintaining gap integrity.
They’re well-tested while always holding opponents well below their season average in rushing yards. They’ve allowed one rushing touchdown and rank second in opposing rush yards per game and fifth in opposing YPC.
With its elite interior, Auburn’s front seven is the best possible qualitative comparison to Georgia and LSU rush attack accrued one YPC fewer — 4.1 -- than its season average against Auburn.
Can Joe Burrow Be Contained?
Georgia’s pass defense ranks third in opposing passer rating. Its toughest passing attack until now was Florida’s Kyle Trask, whose garbage-time touchdown rescued what would have been a season-worst performance for him.
Its efforts against Florida’s long list of capable targets attest to the depth in Georgia’s secondary, where a starting position is incessantly unsafe.
Two notable players include safety J.R. Reed, who repeatedly flexes a low opposing coverage ratings in big games, and corner Eric Stokes, whose physical skill set is captivated by a mixture of solid size and sprinter-caliber speed.
Conclusion
Georgia has limited options especially at receiver and possibly at running back. Its probable game plan also suits our play as Georgia’s high-caliber offensive line (as substantiated by various metrics) will help the Bulldogs sustain drives and drain clock.
LSU will be rather one-dimensional on offense with its rush attack facing a superior test in Georgia’s front seven. Joe Burrow has been almost unstoppable, although Georgia has the secondary to contain him for at least a half.
Best Bet: 1H Under 27.5 at -120 odds with 5Dimes
Georgia vs LSU
Saturday, December 7 at 4 p.m. ET (CBS) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta
Georgia Injuries: Running Back
The most critical piece of injury news surrounds D’Andre Swift as he should be fundamental to Georgia’s game plan — to keep LSU’s offense off the field by grinding out long drives.
Swift sustained a shoulder injury in the third quarter of last Saturday’s game and did not return. His status and fitness for the LSU game are not clear.
Currently, he’s averaging 6.2 YPC with his ability to consistently beat defenders in so many ways — with a nice juke move combined with patience in allowing his blockers to set-up, by hurdling, by using his strength to break tackles, and so on.
Georgia Injuries: Wide Receiver
Lawrence Cager will not play in this game due to an ankle injury.
He’s a well-sized playmaker with an amazing catch radius. Georgia doesn’t have another receiver like him.
Only because he’s played in more games than Cager, George Pickens is the team’s leading wide receiver. He’s suspended for the first half of this game.
The Impact of Losing Cager And Pickens
As was especially evident in Georgia’s 20-17 double-overtime loss to South Carolina, Georgia wide receivers struggle to gain separation, which makes it extremely hard for Jake Fromm to hit them.
Cager and Pickens are irreplaceable. In the first half, Georgia’s active leading receiver will be Dominick Blaylock, who has caught 17 passes for 299 yards, which is 177 fewer yards than Cager.
Should We Worry About LSU’s Defense?
Defensively, LSU was always going to look worse than it is. The Tigers’ offense plays at such a breakneck pace that the defense has to be out on the field longer.
Plus, the Tigers will get a big lead and then the defense will slacken. For this reason, LSU ranks 74th in allowing 14 second-half points per game.
Conversely, LSU ranks 10th in allowing 8.8 first-half points per game.
Super motivated last week, the Tigers played strong defense in all four quarters last Saturday against Texas A&M, holding it to seven points and 169 total yards.
LSU Rush Defense
Complacency is not just an excuse. LSU’s run defense has only looked truly vulnerable when the game was decided or in rare moments.
Ole Miss, for example, amassed 402 yards, but was down 31-7 at halftime. Auburn’s D.J. Williams had his best game of the season, but did very little outside of one run.
Vanderbilt accrued 145 yards in a game that it never had a chance in.
When LSU showed up in its last game, it held Isaiah Spiller to one of his lowest rush totals.
Although Florida ran over 80 plays, Lamical Perine accrued .7 YPC fewer than his season average.
Mississippi State’s Kylin Hill is the other most able non-Alabama running back that LSU has faced and he mustered only 34 yards on 3.4 YPC fewer than his season average.
The point is that LSU’s run defense can hold its own when it wants to. Even if Swift is somehow totally healthy, I foresee him helping Georgia to sustain some drives and run the clock. But he isn’t going to repeatedly gash LSU’s defense.
LSU’s Pass Defense
Georgia’s inability to dominate on the ground is crucial because of the lack of pass-catching talent available to Jake Fromm.
The Bulldogs’ best remaining receiver will contend with Derek Stingley Jr., PFF's highest-graded SEC corner who yields a 23 percent completion rate and 62.4 passer rating when targeted.
Bulldog receivers already struggle to gain separation and Kristian Fulton, PFF’s third-highest graded SEC corner, won’t help him as he is a ballhawk who excels in press coverage.
Overall, thanks to Fulton, Stingley, and others, LSU ranks 15th in opposing passer rating.
Georgia Rush Defense vs LSU’s Rush Offense
The Bulldogs rank second overall in allowing 9.8 points per game and its run defense is a major reason why.
On a weekly basis, they are able to out-physical opponents. Besides, their front seven is deep and they're disciplined in terms of tackling and maintaining gap integrity.
They’re well-tested while always holding opponents well below their season average in rushing yards. They’ve allowed one rushing touchdown and rank second in opposing rush yards per game and fifth in opposing YPC.
With its elite interior, Auburn’s front seven is the best possible qualitative comparison to Georgia and LSU rush attack accrued one YPC fewer — 4.1 -- than its season average against Auburn.
Can Joe Burrow Be Contained?
Georgia’s pass defense ranks third in opposing passer rating. Its toughest passing attack until now was Florida’s Kyle Trask, whose garbage-time touchdown rescued what would have been a season-worst performance for him.
Its efforts against Florida’s long list of capable targets attest to the depth in Georgia’s secondary, where a starting position is incessantly unsafe.
Two notable players include safety J.R. Reed, who repeatedly flexes a low opposing coverage ratings in big games, and corner Eric Stokes, whose physical skill set is captivated by a mixture of solid size and sprinter-caliber speed.
Conclusion
Georgia has limited options especially at receiver and possibly at running back. Its probable game plan also suits our play as Georgia’s high-caliber offensive line (as substantiated by various metrics) will help the Bulldogs sustain drives and drain clock.
LSU will be rather one-dimensional on offense with its rush attack facing a superior test in Georgia’s front seven. Joe Burrow has been almost unstoppable, although Georgia has the secondary to contain him for at least a half.
Best Bet: 1H Under 27.5 at -120 odds with 5Dimes
